ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1304524125227151361

[TheStormExpert]

Not surprised by advisory. Would be surprised if it’s a TD instead of PTC. Can’t recall the NHC announcing advisories will be issued with half an hour notice without saying what the system would be classified as. Must be an internal debate...

Just got a notification on my phone that it’s TD #19.

[us89]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AS NEW
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 79.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

[NDG]

TD 19, but mark my words this will be a storm tonight while it makes landfall in SE FL.

[TallahasseeMan]

NHC goes with a TD. Good call Aric.


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[gfsperpendicular]

First advisory forecasts 70mph

[gatorcane]

TD 19, but mark my words this will be a storm tonight while it makes landfall in SE FL.

https://i.imgur.com/l7OiFBp.gif

You could be right. You have been on top of this from the beginning.

[northjaxpro]

Yes we have TD 19 and rightfully so. It has been organizing steadily most of today. Near a TS now.

[Aric Dunn]

TD 19, but mark my words this will be a storm tonight while it makes landfall in SE FL.

https://i.imgur.com/l7OiFBp.gif

Yeah agreed. I mentioned earlier it would likley be a TS by 11 or 2.

[edu2703]

[SFLcane]

Lol nice rainy Saturday across SFL..

[Dean4Storms]

The where and how quickly she formed reminds me of Katrina.

[Jr0d]

I am surprised the watches are only to Ocean Reef. I was expecting them all the way down the Florida Keys.

[xironman]

NHC website just listed TD19


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Landfall Tuesday, it could strengthen by then

[aspen]

60 kt peak in the Gulf for the first advisory. I have to imagine that’ll be raised eventually, given that TD19 has been organizing so quickly. Remember just a few days ago when we were watching the ML vorticity of 94L?

[SFLcane]

Lol nice rainy Saturday across SFL..

[TheStormExpert]

Lol nice rainy Saturday across SFL..

Of course the weekend I take off!

[kevin]

This one looks quite ominous to me. I wouldn't be surprised if it's a TS by the time it makes landfall in Florida, but what worries me more is what it does afterwards. Of course it's not the same situation and I'm not implying something similar is gonna happen (models are not predicting anything close to that atm at least), but its current position and predicted track is giving me some vague Katrina vibes and I don't like it.

[ElectricStorm]

https://i.imgur.com/b6cOE0H.png

That's one heck of a dangerous track right there. TD19 isn't messing around...

[edu2703]

NHC Forecast advisory #1

Otherwise, after the system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico, steady intensification is expected through the weekend due to expected light wind shear and very warm water. Some increase in shear could occur over the northern Gulf of Mexico but that is uncertain at this time. The first forecast will stay conservative and only show a peak intensity of 60 kt in 3 to 4 days, but do not be surprised if that is revised upward on later forecasts once other models better initialize the depression.