ATL: ETA - Models

[LarryWx]

Yet none of those members is deeper than ~995 mb prior to interaction with Central America. Based on current trends 96L will likely be much deeper then.

This! We could be looking at strengthening hurricane way before.

The key is that all the models with the best handle on current intensity (GFS/HWRF) trends only show 96L scraping Central America at best, not heading well inland.

Looking closely at the 6Z HWRF animated track, it actually is well inland and is even further inland and south than recent tracks! At hour 105, after being at 949 just before LF, it is well inland in N Nicaragua (13.8N, 85W) at 999 mb vs the prior run being further N on the Hond/Nic border (14.5N, 85W) and the 2 runs before that being even further N in Honduras (14.6N, 85.2W) and (15N, 84.3W).

[NDG]

The trend of the Euro ensembles is of a trend closer to the GFS solution.

https://i.imgur.com/R2u5BR0.gif

Still a lot of Euros have it going into EPAC which I still think is the most likely scenario. It’s just not 90/10 like yesterday. Maybe 70/30.

I still go with a CA system and dying there or going into EPAC at 70%, a N and then NE curve out to Atlantic at 20%, a Zeta track at 5%, and something other than that at 5%.

I counted them, only half bring it to the EPAC, the other half either leave it inland or out to the GOH.

[NDG]

This! We could be looking at strengthening hurricane way before.

The key is that all the models with the best handle on current intensity (GFS/HWRF) trends only show 96L scraping Central America at best, not heading well inland.

Looking closely at the 6Z HWRF animated track, it actually is well inland and is even further inland than recent tracks! At hour 105, after being at 949 just before LF, it is well inland in N Nicaragua (13.8N, 85W) at 999 mb vs the prior run being further N on the Hond/Nic border (14.5N, 85W) and the 2 runs before that being even further N in Honduras (14.6N, 85.2W) and (15N, 84.3W).

The HWRF is most times too progressive with its forecast timing.

[LarryWx]

The key is that all the models with the best handle on current intensity (GFS/HWRF) trends only show 96L scraping Central America at best, not heading well inland.

Looking closely at the 6Z HWRF animated track, it actually is well inland and is even further inland than recent tracks! At hour 105, after being at 949 just before LF, it is well inland in N Nicaragua (13.8N, 85W) at 999 mb vs the prior run being further N on the Hond/Nic border (14.5N, 85W) and the 2 runs before that being even further N in Honduras (14.6N, 85.2W) and (15N, 84.3W).

The HWRF is most times too progressive with its forecast timing.

The point of my post is that Shell Mound said the GFS/HWRF trends were toward only scraping CA at best whereas in reality that’s not the case for the HWRF trend, which is the opposite!

[TheStormExpert]

The EURO is notorious for overdoing ridges, the GFS over estimates troughs....

Middle-ground might be the most reasonable solution here.

The recon data, especially from the high-altitude missions is invaluable right now. Unfortunately we have a few more days of watching the models with incomplete inputs.

I agree, a consensus between the two is what will most like be the outcome as usual.

I say that 96L will make landfall in Nicaragua/Honduras border area but then go north back to the Caribbean.
So in another words not go go as far inland as the Euro has it and for it not to stay offshore as the latest GFS has it.

That’s my “forecast” as well. The key is that a brief landfall, say, near Cabo Gracias a Dios would result in very little weakening, as mountains lie well inland.

If this is the case then the northern Gulf Coast could likely see YET another storm threat in the first half of November.

[LarryWx]

Not a good model overall imo though some others here like it, but the 12Z ICON is deep into Nicaragua and, if anything, is trending more that way. It takes the remnants into the E PAC.

So far and subject to change, I’m seeing the GFS/para-GFS largely on their own in not going well into Nic/Hond.

By the way, deeper into CA does not mean there def won’t be a 2nd low threatening FL later. The 12Z ICON has a 2nd low form later in the W Car. This is from a piece of energy now still just E of Lesser A, NOT 96L!

[NDG]

The trend of the Euro ensembles is of a trend closer to the GFS solution.

https://i.imgur.com/R2u5BR0.gif

This isn’t showing properly. You’re using two different valid times in the GIF.

Even when I put them all for the same forecasted time, you can still see the trend of more ensembles staying in the area of the NE Tip of Honduras/Nicaragua. Don't look at the time stamp, look at the forecasted hour below the time stamp.

[cp79]

The trend of the Euro ensembles is of a trend closer to the GFS solution.

https://i.imgur.com/R2u5BR0.gif

Still a lot of Euros have it going into EPAC which I still think is the most likely scenario. It’s just not 90/10 like yesterday. Maybe 70/30.

I still go with a CA system and dying there or going into EPAC at 70%, a N and then NE curve out to Atlantic at 20%, a Zeta track at 5%, and something other than that at 5%.

I counted them, only half bring it to the EPAC, the other half either leave it inland or out to the GOH.

I personally don’t think it’ll get into EPAC. I think the mountains will destroy it. They’re very high there. The question is whether the mountains could break up the system and create another low to the north like some models say could happen. It’s so rare we see that so I don’t know what to make of that solution. It would be kinda cool to see as long as the other piece stays weak and doesn’t affect anyone.

[Spacecoast]

[SFLcane]

Make that 4 runs gfs heads north again.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS looks like it caved to its ensemble members after 4 runs of the same north turn.

[SFLcane]

GFS looks like it caved to its ensemble members after 4 runs of the same north turn.

Likely a major hurricane heading right for Florida @174

[LarryWx]

The 12Z CMC is also in. Regardless of what may or may not happen later to FL from 96L or a 2nd low, the consensus of the more reliable portion of the models in so far (I.e., early in the runs) (12Z ICON, GFS, UK, and CMC) is that parts of Nic/Hond/Guat are under an increasing threat of devastating widespread flooding.

[SFLcane]

[cp79]

As a Tampa resident, I’m happy the GFS is showing this solution now bc their track record 7-days out is like one-in-million. But that would be a scary track for Tampa Bay if that materialized.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/gregpostel/status/1322574621078671362

[shah83]

These GFS runs also have pretty serious surge implications for the west coast of Florida.

[Shell Mound]

I don’t think I’ve ever seen such sustained run-to-run consistency by the operational GFS in terms of track and intensity over five cycles. This isn’t a fluke...

[TheStormExpert]

The 12z GFS is west and slower on approach to Florida when compared to the 06z run. Must be correcting it’s right-bias. Folks anywhere from Texas, Louisiana to Florida better be watching this!

[TheStormExpert]

I don’t think I’ve ever seen such sustained run-to-run consistency by the operational GFS in terms of track and intensity over five cycles. This isn’t a fluke...

Pre-Zeta going NE through Cuba and The Bahamas?