ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

Per the latest advisory that just came out. It doesn't look as if they are increasing the strength long-term on the latest advisory, only for the next 48 hours. Not expected to get stronger than 85 mph....So looks like it will level off from here... I'm quite surprised about that. Conditions must be not conducive for further strengthening.

[FireRat]

Per the latest advisory that just came out. It doesn't look as if they are increasing the strength long-term on the latest advisory, only for the next 48 hours. Not expected to get stronger than 85 mph....So looks like it will level off from here... I'm quite surprised about that. Conditions must be not conducive for further strengthening.

Me too, especially considering the 2020 factor lol.
2020's rule of thumb... add 1 to the category expected. Isaias predicted to be a C1, guess he'll be a C2.

[Hd444]

Per the latest advisory that just came out. It doesn't look as if they are increasing the strength long-term on the latest advisory, only for the next 48 hours. Not expected to get stronger than 85 mph....So looks like it will level off from here... I'm quite surprised about that. Conditions must be not conducive for further strengthening.

NHc intensity is always underdone long range.

[sponger]

Euro scraping the Florida coast!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2020073100&fh=0

[CronkPSU]

Euro scraping the Florida coast!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2020073100&fh=0

Wowwwwww gonna be a super close call if euro verifies,

[ConvergenceZone]

Euro scraping the Florida coast!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2020073100&fh=0

Wow, think the EURO is definitely too weak, but scary to see if scraping the coast like that.

[Hd444]

Euro scraping the Florida coast!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2020073100&fh=0

Wow, think the EURO is definitely too weak, but scary to see if scraping the coast like that.

12z scraped too

[sponger]

Euro scraping the Florida coast!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2020073100&fh=0

Wow, think the EURO is definitely too weak, but scary to see if scraping the coast like that.

12z scraped too

Yep, hurricane center did not bite. Looking forward to their thoughts later today.

[Extratropical94]

A max wind dropsonde measured 73kt at the surface.
Also, 993/33 on the center drop. Previous center splash had 993/9, so Isaias is still deepening.

[Jr0d]

A max wind dropsonde measured 73kt at the surface.
Also, 993/33 on the center drop. Previous center splash had 993/9, so Isaias is still deepening.

The clouds have warmed a bit over the past hour or so...it might have leveled off for now.

I need to get some sleep and see what it looks like in 5 hours. Might have to do some storm shopping when I wake up if Isaias decides to keep jogging west.

[sponger]

A max wind dropsonde measured 73kt at the surface.
Also, 993/33 on the center drop. Previous center splash had 993/9, so Isaias is still deepening.

The clouds have warmed a bit over the past hour or so...it might have leveled off for now.

I need to get some sleep and see what it looks like in 5 hours. Might have to do some storm shopping when I wake up if Isaias decides to keep jogging west.

Early bird gets the bread!

[CrazyC83]

That last drop suggests the pressure is 990.

[northjaxpro]

Movement appears to be due NW according to recon (310ish°)

I (or more correctly, Google Earth Pro) calculate a motion of 290 degrees between the two fixes. This could just be a wobble, however, and not indicative of longer term motion.

I'm a bit confused. Recon deployed a dropsonde at what they're calling the center at 20.4N 72.5W. However, the lowest pressure was found at 20.3N 72.25W. So yes that would be a bit further south and west.

That is correct
This is a good indicator for me thar we have a still rather stout ridge in place could be pushing the cyclone slightly south of due west currently.

[Bocadude85]

Isaias seems to be on the southern edge of the forecast cone, may just be a temporary thing but could have implications for S.Fla.

[STRiZZY]

Isaias seems to be on the southern edge of the forecast cone, may just be a temporary thing but could have implications for S.Fla.

Feels like it's been on the southern end of it for days now.

[Hurricane Mike]

I'm a bit more concerned with three scenarios.

#1. A much more severe impact on the Bahamas, including Dorian-ravaged Grand Bahama and Abaco Island. 70-75 mph is alot less than 80-105 mph.

#2. The westward progression makes me notice just how close this may get to landfall in Florida.

#3. I still expect an East Coast landfall, likely NC, but possibly much stronger than previously expected.

[bob rulz]

Dominican Republic really getting hammered right now. Flooding there could be catastrophic.

[northjaxpro]

Inagua also getting raked by the inner core. Eye trying to get established currently

[Extratropical94]

The NOAA mission (0609A) is under way. The AF mission (0709A) should start an hour from now. Two simultaneous low-level missions, what a treat!

[eastcoastFL]

What an odd looking hurrricane