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sponger wrote:eastcoastFL wrote:Kat5 wrote:I’m starting to see the NW movement now on IR.
I can’t really tell. It’s hard to see where the center is. The entire mass it’s self still seems to be on a wnw heading to me.
It is quite a mess. Visible should give some clarity when the sun comes up.
jlauderdal wrote:the setup was near perfect with a shallow system, forward speed was fast, the "center" didn't go over the high mountains, the system was able to continue getting energy from the south and se...last night the inflow did get a choked off a little but that was over in a few hours..i had pointed out a couple of days ago that weakening isn't the default around hispanola and here we are....lets also not forget about the unreliability shear forecasts, there is real potential of a major hurricane in the next 48 hours
GCANE wrote:eastcoastFL wrote:
Been consolidating quite a bit the past 24 hrs. Went from TS winds 325 miles out to 205 miles out. Do you expect the wind field to shrink more as it intensifies?
Land interaction had a lot to do with the change in wind field.
Hard to say what will happen next with intensity and radius of maximum winds given the incorrect data in the global models.
I don't think they ran any high altitude drop missions yet.
Almost too late if they want to get accurate forecasts for the coast.
The hurricane models appeared to have worked better with Hanna.
I am going to take a look at them.
eastcoastFL wrote:GCANE wrote:eastcoastFL wrote:
Been consolidating quite a bit the past 24 hrs. Went from TS winds 325 miles out to 205 miles out. Do you expect the wind field to shrink more as it intensifies?
Land interaction had a lot to do with the change in wind field.
Hard to say what will happen next with intensity and radius of maximum winds given the incorrect data in the global models.
I don't think they ran any high altitude drop missions yet.
Almost too late if they want to get accurate forecasts for the coast.
The hurricane models appeared to have worked better with Hanna.
I am going to take a look at them.
I was looking at some when I got up an hour ago. The 00z HWRF made landfall in Sfl and came all the way to the center of the state as a weak 998mb storm
Hmon stays off shore and bombs out before hitting NC at 950mb
sponger wrote:CFLHurricane wrote:eastcoastFL wrote:just got this friendly local alert... guess I’ll be getting that generator this morning
THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY:
Potential for wind 58 to 73 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent
strong tropical storm force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and
property should be completed as soon as
possible. Prepare for significant wind damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind
becomes hazardous.
- Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat
as depicted on the left.
You should have a generator & other hurricane supplies already regardless of Isaias. Just sayin.
Still have my 2004 Frances, Jeane, Wilma, Matthew, and Irma Troy Bilt 5500 generator and six empty gas cans ready to go. It is now down to the point where my supply list this storm was 5 flashlights, a roll of duct tape, and two bags of Charcoal.
jlauderdal wrote:sponger wrote:CFLHurricane wrote:
You should have a generator & other hurricane supplies already regardless of Isaias. Just sayin.
Still have my 2004 Frances, Jeane, Wilma, Matthew, and Irma Troy Bilt 5500 generator and six empty gas cans ready to go. It is now down to the point where my supply list this storm was 5 flashlights, a roll of duct tape, and two bags of Charcoal.
2004 was the year I purchased my genny, the vetarns on this board know all about that genny, its come in handy many times to deflect systems from sfl and it looks like it worked again..
DestinHurricane wrote:Is it going to miss or barley scrape Inagua to the south? That would be south of all guidance and the NHC.
AdamFirst wrote:06z GFS shifts closer to the FL coast in the near term. Track analog would be similar to Matthew.
Bought it after the season...two separate trips to hotels was enough for the family...bought one with 8500 starting watts with 6000 running watts...have only used it three times but it was well worth it to have a AC in the bedroom, refrigerator, etc and now with LED lightbulbs there is power to spare. I also have 10 five gallon gas cans so I can go 5 days. There is no point in having a generator and not being able to be sustained for at least 3. I understand finances are an issue for many people but try and go 5, at least.eastcoastFL wrote:jlauderdal wrote:sponger wrote:
Still have my 2004 Frances, Jeane, Wilma, Matthew, and Irma Troy Bilt 5500 generator and six empty gas cans ready to go. It is now down to the point where my supply list this storm was 5 flashlights, a roll of duct tape, and two bags of Charcoal.
2004 was the year I purchased my genny, the vetarns on this board know all about that genny, its come in handy many times to deflect systems from sfl and it looks like it worked again..
Did you buy it before or after the storm? I was a new Floridian at the time. Got mine after the storm at a Home Depot with no power itself where they let 1 person in the store at a time and escorted you around. That was right after Frances thankfully we were ready for Jeanne. Hopefully your generator keeps this one at bay. I figure if I go spend $1k this morning it will surely keep the storm far far away.
StormingB81 wrote:I guess we can expect a west shift in the track come 8am with the GFS and EURO both west on the latest runs
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