ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sanibel]

It keeps trying to form that broader eye but it doesn't have enough power to get there...

[LowerAlabamaTider]

I know the official movement is NW but the past three center fixes have been to the northeast and the next one will be even further east.

Like I said earlier . . . .

[NDG]

Sally still has time to restrengthen at D-max before making landfall, SSTs still plenty warm on her way to the coast and shear is not terrible.
IMO.

[Bamagirl2408]

[quote="wxman57"]May be moving a little east of north now. Just east of Mobile Bay still looks "good" for landfall. May be a tad stronger than this morning. About 65 kt winds. Shear not too bad yet, but it is predicted to increase.

How far out are hurricane winds to the west side? Im at 30.6 88.16:):)

[p1nheadlarry]

FYI, there are no bridge closures in Walton County:

https://twitter.com/WaltonCountyEM/status/1305872689438109698?s=20

The 3 mile bridge between Pensacola and Gulf Breeze is closed for the duration of the Hurricane due to a barge strike on the bridge. The Garcon Point bridge is still open with tolls suspended at least until winds get over 40mph sustained.

There were posters here yesterday saying that bridges were closed in Walton (1.5 hrs east of Pcola), apparently it spread around quickly.

[Javlin]

I know the official movement is NW but the past three center fixes have been to the northeast and the next one will be even further east.

09/15 ........ 2:00 AM 28.8N 88.0W 90MPH 986mb W at 3 MPH H1 Sally 09/15 2:00 AM Stewart
1609/15...... 5:00 AM 28.9N 88.1W 85MPH 983mb Wnw at 2 MPH H1 Sally 09/15 5:02 AM Stewart
16A 09/15...8:00 AM 29.1N 88.0W 85MPH 982mb Nw at 2 MPH H1 Sally 09/15 7:47 AM Brown
17 09/15...11:00 AM 29.1N 88.2W 85MPH 983mb Nw at 2 MPH H1 Sally 09/15 10:47 AM Brown
17A 09/15...2:00 PM 29.2N 88.2W 80MPH 982mb Nw at 2 MPH H1 Sally 09/15 1:44 PM Brown

[Bamagirl2408]

I know the official movement is NW but the past three center fixes have been to the northeast and the next one will be even further east.

09/15 ........ 2:00 AM 28.8N 88.0W 90MPH 986mb W at 3 MPH H1 Sally 09/15 2:00 AM Stewart
1609/15...... 5:00 AM 28.9N 88.1W 85MPH 983mb Wnw at 2 MPH H1 Sally 09/15 5:02 AM Stewart
16A 09/15...8:00 AM 29.1N 88.0W 85MPH 982mb Nw at 2 MPH H1 Sally 09/15 7:47 AM Brown
17 09/15...11:00 AM 29.1N 88.2W 85MPH 983mb Nw at 2 MPH H1 Sally 09/15 10:47 AM Brown
17A 09/15...2:00 PM 29.2N 88.2W 80MPH 982mb Nw at 2 MPH H1 Sally 09/15 1:44 PM Brown

88.2 is west isnt it?

[Bamagirl2408]

I know the official movement is NW but the past three center fixes have been to the northeast and the next one will be even further east.

09/15 ........ 2:00 AM 28.8N 88.0W 90MPH 986mb W at 3 MPH H1 Sally 09/15 2:00 AM Stewart
1609/15...... 5:00 AM 28.9N 88.1W 85MPH 983mb Wnw at 2 MPH H1 Sally 09/15 5:02 AM Stewart
16A 09/15...8:00 AM 29.1N 88.0W 85MPH 982mb Nw at 2 MPH H1 Sally 09/15 7:47 AM Brown
17 09/15...11:00 AM 29.1N 88.2W 85MPH 983mb Nw at 2 MPH H1 Sally 09/15 10:47 AM Brown
17A 09/15...2:00 PM 29.2N 88.2W 80MPH 982mb Nw at 2 MPH H1 Sally 09/15 1:44 PM Brown

88.2 is west isnt it?

[NDG]

I just posted the 12z Euro, it switched east to Pensacola Beach from earlier run at Mobile Bay.

[Stormcenter]

Just throwing this out there for conversation sake.
What happens if the trough doesn’t pick up Sally?

[FLpanhandle91]

It really seems like Gulf Shore to Pensacola could end up being landfall for this one.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

You guys are going to think I am crazy, but I've said it a few times here over the last day or so . . . She is going to go East of Mobile & Mobile Bay. It seems like for the last 20 years or so every time Mobile gets put in the center of the cone that is a clear indicator that the storm will end up eastward. I've seen it so many times. I'll send all of you $5 via paypal if it still makes Mobile as landfall.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Recon image through 1:01pm CDT:

[FixySLN]

Wondering if there's some far-reaching interaction with that system in the SW Gulf we should watch out for. Not bright enough to figure how that world work.

[MGC]

I just posted the 12z Euro, it switched east to Pensacola Beach from earlier run at Mobile Bay.

My landfall zone is Gulf Shores to Perdido Key. 80mph hurricane at landfall.....MGC

[ColdMiser123]

Some velocity bins now up to 96 mph (83 kt) which supports the current NHC intensity of 75 kt since these are at 9k feet.

[Blow_Hard]

May be moving a little east of north now. Just east of Mobile Bay still looks "good" for landfall. May be a tad stronger than this morning. About 65 kt winds. Shear not too bad yet, but it is predicted to increase.

How far out are hurricane winds to the west side? Im at 30.6 88.16:):)

Hurricane Force winds extend out 45 miles from the center
Tropical Storm Force winds extend 125 miles out from the center

[tropicwatch]

I know the official movement is NW but the past three center fixes have been to the northeast and the next one will be even further east.

09/15 ........ 2:00 AM 28.8N 88.0W 90MPH 986mb W at 3 MPH H1 Sally 09/15 2:00 AM Stewart
1609/15...... 5:00 AM 28.9N 88.1W 85MPH 983mb Wnw at 2 MPH H1 Sally 09/15 5:02 AM Stewart
16A 09/15...8:00 AM 29.1N 88.0W 85MPH 982mb Nw at 2 MPH H1 Sally 09/15 7:47 AM Brown
17 09/15...11:00 AM 29.1N 88.2W 85MPH 983mb Nw at 2 MPH H1 Sally 09/15 10:47 AM Brown
17A 09/15...2:00 PM 29.2N 88.2W 80MPH 982mb Nw at 2 MPH H1 Sally 09/15 1:44 PM Brown

88.2 is west isnt it?

Last four VDM's:
14:20:18Z 29.13N 88.21W
15:16:32Z 29.14N 88.16W
16:34:10Z 29.18N 88.13W
17:46:37Z 29.29N 88.08W

[Airboy]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 18:12Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Number & Year: 19 in 2020
Storm Name: Sally (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 25

A. Time of Center Fix: 15th day of the month at 17:46:37Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29.29N 88.08W
B. Center Fix Location: 95 statute miles (153 km) to the SSW (213°) from Pensacola, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,957m (9,701ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 981mb (28.97 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 110° at 2kts (From the ESE at 2mph)
F. Eye Character: Spiral Band
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 57kts (65.6mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NW (309°) of center fix at 17:43:17Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 36° at 60kts (From the NE at 69.0mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the NW (306°) of center fix at 17:41:05Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 57kts (65.6mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles) to the SE (135°) of center fix at 17:53:50Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 229° at 68kts (From the SW at 78.3mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the SE (135°) of center fix at 17:57:55Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,066m (10,059ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,070m (10,072ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 68kts (~ 78.3mph) which was observed 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the SE (135°) from the flight level center at 17:57:55Z

[Dean4Storms]

Wow....12z ECM right over P'Cola.