ATL: LAURA - Models

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Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2721 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 23, 2020 4:58 pm

Highteeld wrote:based off the thermodynamic and shear conditions, this would be exploding much faster than the GFS might suggest, and the GFS is nothing to sneeze at hour 78

https://i.imgur.com/W6jaYhD.png


Yeah you can easily subtract 15-20mb from the landfall pressure value. This will likely be a Cat.4 landfall in reality.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2722 Postby gqhebert » Sun Aug 23, 2020 4:59 pm

18z GFS landfall at 84 hours 958mb into High Island/ Galveston
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2723 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 23, 2020 4:59 pm

18z GFS inland hour 90:
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2724 Postby Kazmit » Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:02 pm

More realistic than the previous run even if it initialised poorly. The euro is on something...
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2725 Postby Stormcenter » Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:03 pm

It’s the GFS so I wouldn’t start evacuating just yet in
Galveston.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2726 Postby Stormcenter » Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:05 pm

Last night the EURO was king when it said the same
thing today it’s not because it doesn’t agree ....why is that?

Kazmit wrote:More realistic than the previous run even if it initialised poorly. The euro is on something...
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2727 Postby Kazmit » Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:09 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Last night the EURO was king when it said the same
thing today it’s not because it doesn’t agree ....why is that?

Kazmit wrote:More realistic than the previous run even if it initialised poorly. The euro is on something...

It seemed like the euro was caving in line with the other models yesterday. It has been terrible with intensity all season.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2728 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:11 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Last night the EURO was king when it said the same
thing today it’s not because it doesn’t agree ....why is that?

Kazmit wrote:More realistic than the previous run even if it initialised poorly. The euro is on something...


... because there's legit reasons why the 12z ECMWF doesn't make sense?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2729 Postby Hammy » Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:15 pm

Kazmit wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Last night the EURO was king when it said the same
thing today it’s not because it doesn’t agree ....why is that?

Kazmit wrote:More realistic than the previous run even if it initialised poorly. The euro is on something...

It seemed like the euro was caving in line with the other models yesterday. It has been terrible with intensity all season.


Somebody posted a graphic earlier showing it tends to have the worst skill with intensity in general.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2730 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:21 pm

Hammy wrote:
Kazmit wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Last night the EURO was king when it said the same
thing today it’s not because it doesn’t agree ....why is that?


It seemed like the euro was caving in line with the other models yesterday. It has been terrible with intensity all season.


Somebody posted a graphic earlier showing it tends to have the worst skill with intensity in general.

This?

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2731 Postby toad strangler » Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:30 pm

Hammy wrote:
Kazmit wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Last night the EURO was king when it said the same
thing today it’s not because it doesn’t agree ....why is that?


It seemed like the euro was caving in line with the other models yesterday. It has been terrible with intensity all season.


Somebody posted a graphic earlier showing it tends to have the worst skill with intensity in general.


There isn't a global model or specialty model that actually excels at tropical cyclone intensity. It truly is a unknown frontier.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2732 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:32 pm

HMON initialized too far north as well, same as the gfs. Seeing a similar westward shift as well though
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2733 Postby Keldeo1997 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:33 pm

Image

Strongest GFS run since last night
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2734 Postby MGC » Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:38 pm

Models have been junk the past few days. Back and forth...tomorrow it might be back to Louisiana. Whats with the EURO? It's back to near SE La.....MGC
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2735 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:39 pm

HMON seems to lose the center from hour 21 to 24. It pops a center to the SW randomly. :D
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2736 Postby Keldeo1997 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:42 pm

Image

Image

HWRF aced the projected rader
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2737 Postby SoupBone » Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:44 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:HMON seems to lose the center from hour 21 to 24. It pops a center to the SW randomly. :D



I've watched the HMON do that sort of quirky jumping around for several runs, but I'm sure there's a good explanation as to why. It definitely looks odd visually though.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2738 Postby HoustonFrog » Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:44 pm

Yeah this is going to be brutal if people have to wait until Tuesday to evacuate
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2739 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:49 pm

I have no idea what to make of the HMON so far but I’m inclined to discount it. Aside from the poor initialization (4mb too weak, 60mi too far north), it seems to show 2 competing vortices through hour 36. I think that’s reasonable, but it keeps pegging the center at some weird peripheral vort to the north instead of the actual center of circulation it depicts.
Last edited by cheezyWXguy on Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2740 Postby Texasgulfcoast » Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:49 pm

HoustonFrog wrote:Yeah this is going to be brutal if people have to wait until Tuesday to evacuate


Agreed.
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