ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

https://i.imgur.com/WONRrZc.jpg
I would argue Isaias is already off the track to the SW.

It is indeed!!

[Airboy]

Do the recon planes have issues?, was long since I saw an update from them.

[GCANE]

Another feeder band may have cleared the mountains and could be developing over Haiti.
This one may be more robust than the current one that is further west.
Stay tuned.

[NDG]

Its LLC will start getting within Bahama's radar range later this morning.
Another big outflow squall on the NW quadrant, evidence that the system is also dealing with the very dry air to the north and west of it.

[Nimbus]

Looks like the forward speed may have slowed and the circulation is still being effected by the mountains.
Dry shear not very far to the west, but with slower forward speed Isaias might well get back to hurricane intensity by the end of the day.

[AJC3]

Strong high-helicity hot tower firing up at the top-end of the feeder band.
Watching if this starts rotating.

https://i.imgur.com/JnGpEWK.png

Do you think Florida could face some tornadoes from the storm this weekend?

Too early to tell.
I need to watch how helicity develops when it gets close.

The center would need to go at least 20-30 miles inland before turning north in order to get Florida eastern coastal areas into a favorable helicity profile for tornadoes. This looks very unlikely to occur.

[NDG]

LLC on the very western edge of the convection, further west than where is supposed to be this morning.
Plenty of west winds for wxman57 to keep him happy

[Vdogg]

Does not appear to have hurricane strength at this time

Convection is building. I doubt they drop it down to TS just yet. They’ll probably wait to see where it stands on the next advisory.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like the track shifted a tiny bit west at the end of this loop. It shifts east in the beginning then slightly west, so it appears

[eastcoastFL]

Does not appear to have hurricane strength at this time

Convection is building. I doubt they drop it down to TS just yet. They’ll probably wait to see where it stands on the next advisory.

Still hurricane at 8am

[caneman]

Looks like the track shifted a tiny bit west at the end of this loop. It shifts east in the beginning then slightly west, so it appears


http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_sat_anim.gif

The more reliable models have it more West touching a landfall. I would expect the NHC to shift closer to landfall in Florida at 11

[Airboy]

Drop in the center: 995mb (29.39 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 26.0°C (79°F) 190° (from the S) 26 knots (30 mph)
Location: 21.30N 73.94W

[BobHarlem]

Looks like the track shifted a tiny bit west at the end of this loop. It shifts east in the beginning then slightly west, so it appears


http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_sat_anim.gif

The more reliable models have it more West touching a landfall. I would expect the NHC to shift closer to landfall in Florida at 11

Wouldn't doubt that now after seeing the 6z Euro is now hitting Miami/S.Fla.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like the forward speed may have slowed and the circulation is still being effected by the mountains.
Dry shear not very far to the west, but with slower forward speed Isaias might well get back to hurricane intensity by the end of the day.

Slowing may indicate it’s beginning to turn more NW

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like the track shifted a tiny bit west at the end of this loop. It shifts east in the beginning then slightly west, so it appears


http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_sat_anim.gif

The more reliable models have it more West touching a landfall. I would expect the NHC to shift closer to landfall in Florida at 11

I saw that on the recent GFS run but still unsure of how strong the ridge is. I wish they’d get the G-IV flight up there to sample the air

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like the track shifted a tiny bit west at the end of this loop. It shifts east in the beginning then slightly west, so it appears


http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_sat_anim.gif

The more reliable models have it more West touching a landfall. I would expect the NHC to shift closer to landfall in Florida at 11

Wouldn't doubt that now after seeing the 6z Euro is now hitting Miami/S.Fla.

I didn’t see that. When was that run?

[caneman]

The more reliable models have it more West touching a landfall. I would expect the NHC to shift closer to landfall in Florida at 11

Wouldn't doubt that now after seeing the 6z Euro is now hitting Miami/S.Fla.

I didn’t see that. When was that run?

Look a few hours back in the model thread

[eastcoastFL]

Wouldn't doubt that now after seeing the 6z Euro is now hitting Miami/S.Fla.

I didn’t see that. When was that run?

Look a few hours back in the model thread

Oh wow not a few hours back. A few mins back. Geez euro is showing a much stronger ridge now albeit not a very strong storm

[Evil Jeremy]

Drop in the center: 995mb (29.39 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 26.0°C (79°F) 190° (from the S) 26 knots (30 mph)
Location: 21.30N 73.94W

Per the 11pm advisory last night, NHC expected this to be .3N of here by the time it crossed 73.9W

[NDG]

Isaias keeps raising WNW when it should had taken a more NW heading by this time this morning

could

make a difference on its track as it nears FL, closer to us. IMO.