ATL: LAURA - Models

[cheezyWXguy]

HWRF nailed the initialization though

[SoupBone]

HWRF nailed the initialization though

Last run was the opposite, HWRF was SW of the center, and HMON was right on. GFS has been bad for 3 runs on center initialization location.

[sphelps8681]

Yeah this is going to be brutal if people have to wait until Tuesday to evacuate

Agreed.

Yea just got an email from the school district I work to say they are monitoring the situation.

[Jagno]

Yeah this is going to be brutal if people have to wait until Tuesday to evacuate

Agreed.

Multiple mandatory and voluntary evacuation orders already issued. Just had one issued just south of me in Cameron Parish.

[Kingarabian]

18z HWRF hour 33 + trend:



Much more south so far.

[cheezyWXguy]

HWRF nailed the initialization though

Last run was the opposite, HWRF was SW of the center, and HMON was right on. GFS has been bad for 3 runs on center initialization location.

Sorry to disagree, but the HMON was too far north last time as well. Had it coming off the nw tip of Haiti crossing into the eastern corner of Cuba. 12z HWRF was closer to correct.

Edit: I take that back, after reviewing, the HWRF was too far SE, but corrected the short term motion pretty well.

[supercane4867]

18z HWRF could be even more nuclear than 12z HWRF.

[Beef Stew]

18z HWRF is more south through 45 hours, almost to an entire degree. Comparable wind (57 kts) and pressure (983mb) to the 12z run. Looks as if it will bomb this one out too, unsurprisingly.

[cheezyWXguy]

HMON slightly north and stronger, though not sure how much weight to put on the run

[CrazyC83]

If I were to guess at the 11 pm advisory, the intensity forecast will explicitly call for a major hurricane hit at landfall. Most models seem to support that.

[supercane4867]

18z HWRF is slower and starts the RI phase earlier.

[gqhebert]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/sta ... 39649?s=19

[Kingarabian]

18z HWRF hour 51:

[SoupBone]

HMON taking it straight to Galveston.

[Homie J]

HWRF gets this down to 967 by hour 57

[Kingarabian]

18z HWRF hour 57 now a major hurricane:

[catskillfire51]

HMON is further north this run

[catskillfire51]

and HWRF is further south

[SoupBone]

[supercane4867]

HWRF is going toward sub 930mb in no time.