ATL: LAURA - Models

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Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2761 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:23 pm

18z HWRF hours 57-63:

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2762 Postby Homie J » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:24 pm

HWRF has this dropping an avg of 2 mb per hour from hour 39-63. Hope this wont play out.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2763 Postby NevadaFan18 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:24 pm

Kingarabian wrote:18z HWRF hours 57-63:

https://i.imgur.com/ZtwylfB.gif


Oh fun, a 30kt increase in winds in 3 hours
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2764 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:24 pm

HWRF stronger and slightly further south than the previous run. HMON is nearly a carbon copy of the gfs.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2765 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:26 pm

At the rate the HWRF is going it will have the pressure in the 920s before landfall.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2766 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:28 pm

Kingarabian wrote:At the rate the HWRF is going it will have the pressure in the 920s before landfall.


If it goes into RI too soon, it could start an ERC before landfall and weaken (but expand significantly).
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2767 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:28 pm

Kingarabian wrote:At the rate the HWRF is going it will have the pressure in the 920s before landfall.


Maybe sub 920s
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2768 Postby SoupBone » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:28 pm

The HMON hits the brakes right before Houston then heads north on top of Beaumont.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2769 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:29 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:At the rate the HWRF is going it will have the pressure in the 920s before landfall.


If it goes into RI too soon, it could start an ERC before landfall and weaken (but expand significantly).

Yeah... It's a lose lose situation.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2770 Postby HouTXmetro » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:30 pm

HMON is west of previous run right?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2771 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:31 pm

18z HWRF 75:
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2772 Postby SoupBone » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:32 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:HMON is west of previous run right?


No, quite a bit more north and east actually.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2773 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:32 pm

Image

Image

Looks like Katrina.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2774 Postby Ken711 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:33 pm



Yikes, hope that intensity is overdone.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2775 Postby Beef Stew » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:33 pm

HWRF looks to be taking it to CAT 5 again on final approach near Galveston. May actually go sub 920 this run, not that it particularly matters this far out.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2776 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:34 pm

18z HWRF hours 63-75:
Image

Non stop RI.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2777 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:35 pm

SoupBone wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:HMON is west of previous run right?


No, quite a bit more north and east actually.

It's just getting it so strong such that if it wobbles different communities on the GOM coast could get very surprised. They might have to do widespread mass evacuations.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2778 Postby catskillfire51 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:35 pm

HWRF at 75Hrs is almost the same exact pressure and position as 12z
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2779 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:36 pm

Simply tapped into the rocket fuel.

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1297678607595253764


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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2780 Postby HoustonFrog » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:37 pm

Panic time for Galveston/Houston yet?
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