ATL: LAURA - Models

[PavelGaborik10]

That would be an absolute disaster.

[Kingarabian]

Simply tapped into the rocket fuel.

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1297678607595253764?s=21

And the waters off of the Texas coast can support sub 900mb pressures.

[CrazyC83]

Panic time for Galveston/Houston yet?

Very close. Tomorrow would be the day to start evacuating if models hone in on them. A cat 4-5 hitting Galveston would likely be the costliest natural disaster in US history.

[SoupBone]

Similar to the HMON, the HWRF goes right over Beaumont heading NW.

[bohai]

Houston Metro area has over 7 million. Hard to evacuate. Obviously southern part of city near water and Galveston area need to get the heck out of Dodge early as there are not many ways out. Lived there for over 25 years. Evacuations are horrible even with the contra flow lanes on the interstates.

[Kingarabian]

"Leveled off" upon land fall. 18z HWRF hours 75-84:

[Beef Stew]

HWRF takes Michae- I mean Laura onshore at hour 81 with maximum sustained winds of 120kts and a pressure of 933mb. North of Galveston.

[aspen]

Yet another nuclear HWRF run — 926 mbar and 167 kt 850 hPa-level winds before landfall at 00z Thursday.

[Kingarabian]

Houston Metro area has over 7 million. Hard to evacuate. Obviously southern part of city near water and Galveston area need to get the heck out of Dodge early as there are not many ways out. Lived there for over 25 years. Evacuations are horrible even with the contra flow lanes on the interstates.

At the very least if they can get as much elderly folks out of there as possible. The situation with COVID could make impacts even more worse.

[PandaCitrus]

This takes the core and surge north of Galveston and the Houston metro. It will be extremely close. 30 miles one way or the other could mean a $300 Billion storm vs. a $30 Billion storm.

"Leveled off" upon land fall. 18z HWRF hours 75-84:
https://i.imgur.com/doou5Ip.gif

[Kingarabian]

Yet another nuclear HWRF run — 926 mbar and 167 kt 850 hPa-level winds before landfall at 00z Thursday.

167kt 850 mb winds with 125kt 10m winds could actually even out to somewhere around 140kts.

[Kingarabian]

This takes the core and surge north of Galveston and the Houston metro. It will be extremely close. 30 miles one way or the other could mean a $300 Billion storm vs. a $30 Billion storm.

"Leveled off" upon land fall. 18z HWRF hours 75-84:
https://i.imgur.com/doou5Ip.gif

There's also big risks of ERC which can greatly expand effects well away from the center. So Houston could indeed have a problem.

[Cpv17]

18z GFS, 18z HMON, 18z HWRF-P, and 18z HWRF all have landfall in almost the same exact spot. Bolivar Peninsula to High Island. Houston would avoid the worst of it.

[catskillfire51]

This takes the core and surge north of Galveston and the Houston metro. It will be extremely close. 30 miles one way or the other could mean a $300 Billion storm vs. a $30 Billion storm.

"Leveled off" upon land fall. 18z HWRF hours 75-84:
https://i.imgur.com/doou5Ip.gif

Where landfall is showing is a lot of Chemical Manufacturing facilities in Port Arthur and that area. Could still be an expensive storm. Just better missing high population area.

[eastcoastFL]

Yet another nuclear HWRF run — 926 mbar and 167 kt 850 hPa-level winds before landfall at 00z Thursday.

The worst part is I wish I could come up with a good reason to call this crazy but I can’t. It seems outlandish but currently it’s completely possible.

[sphelps8681]

Panic time for Galveston/Houston yet?

Very close. Tomorrow would be the day to start evacuating if models hone in on them. A cat 4-5 hitting Galveston would likely be the costliest natural disaster in US history.

Does not look like a direct hit on Houston/Galveston maybe more east toward Tx/LA Border. But in either case this will not be good if this panes out for either.

[SoupBone]

18Z GFS Ensembles

[Kingarabian]

Also sometimes the HWRF and HMON can screw up the pressure/wind relationship. Example here:

Ignore the 57kt winds the HWRF is showing with the pressure that low.

[jaguars_22]

So what could make this go further west and south? Maybe towards port o connor? Is this possible or not really?

[gqhebert]

Panic time for Galveston/Houston yet?

not yet....still need to watch and see what things look like upon entry into the Gulf- but have a plan