ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[Ubuntwo]

Anyone care to share what the 12z UKMET showed?

looks like a bad time

[Frank2]

DestinHurricane wrote:
I may be 100% wrong but doesn't climo favor stronger ridging and less chance of recurve this early in the season?

If it were late June but not now. August is next Sunday and the subtropical high begins to drift east in early August - it's probably one factor for the current recurve solution...

[Cpv17]

DestinHurricane wrote:
I may be 100% wrong but doesn't climo favor stronger ridging and less chance of recurve this early in the season?

If it were late June but not now. August is next Sunday and the subtropical high begins to drift east in early August - it's probably one factor for the current recurve solution...

I know that in the second half of September the western half of the GOM pretty much shuts down. I’m pretty sure climo favors more of a recurve in late September through November than it does now.

[Frank2]

Sometimes, but I've seen seasons end after mid-September, so early August really isn't that early.

[gatorcane]

Remarkably tight consensus:

[plasticup]

Remarkably tight consensus:

https://i.postimg.cc/4yvMr1yw/92-L-tracks-18z.png

https://i.postimg.cc/YCCVsYHf/92-L-intensity-18z.png

Breathing a sigh of relief here in Bermuda.

[SFLcane]

Still waiting on HWRF, HMON. No well defined llc yet.

[sma10]

Pretty amazing agreement on the GEFS over a week out. Almost all 20 members show a storm in the same general area next weekend (FL/SW Atl)

[gatorcane]

Rarely see the low-res JMA this intense = extremely favorable conditions if this wave makes it there.

But curiously from hours 168 to 192 hours it quite dramatically weakens it though.

[jfk08c]

GEFS with alot of solutions near Florida

[abajan]

Remarkably tight consensus:

https://i.postimg.cc/4yvMr1yw/92-L-tracks-18z.png

https://i.postimg.cc/YCCVsYHf/92-L-intensity-18z.png

Breathing a sigh of relief here in Bermuda.

I'm afraid it's too early for that.

[TheStormExpert]

Rarely see the low-res JMA this intense = extremely favorable conditions if this wave makes it there.

But curiously from hours 168 to 192 hours it quite dramatically weakens it though.

https://i.postimg.cc/xT38RDfN/jma-z850-vort-watl-8.png

https://i.postimg.cc/9QNW8cv0/jma-z850-vort-watl-9.png

The one time it shows hi-res. Probably a glitch in the system.

[TheStormExpert]

Remarkably tight consensus:

https://i.postimg.cc/4yvMr1yw/92-L-tracks-18z.png

https://i.postimg.cc/YCCVsYHf/92-L-intensity-18z.png

Breathing a sigh of relief here in Bermuda.

I'm afraid it's too early for that.

Way too soon! Anyone from Bermuda to Central America is in play at this point.

[TheStormExpert]

More GEFS Ensembles into Florida on the 18z run verses the 12z run.

[TheStormExpert]

Even the 00z Track Guidance has nudged a little south and west.

[Blinhart]

I will be sitting back for the next 3-5 days and watch the switching back and forth. Can't really say anything until it has a well defined CoC., and then the steering can change every day to some extent, so never know what is going to happen for a while.

[aspen]

The NAVGEM has finally gotten its act together for its 18z run. It no longer shows Gonzalo regenerating in the Gulf, and it has 92L develop in 2-3 days before striking the northern Leeward Islands as a hurricane in 144 hours. So, in other words, it’s finally in line with every other global model.

[OuterBanker]

Will be interesting if any ensembles show something similar

https://i.imgur.com/ITDdMEZ.gif

I
Entertainment purposes only, ain't gonna happen.

1 I'm giving blood that day.
2 Leaving for Pittsburgh that Friday.
3 The Outer Banks hasn't had a landfalling hurricane since Dorian.

[plasticup]

3 The Outer Banks hasn't had a landfalling hurricane since Dorian.

GFS actually has the landfall down near Topsail Beach, not on the Outer Banks proper.

But yeah, fantasy-casting this far out.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

This is the HWRF take on the system.. (HWRF 18Z Gonzalo)