ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[plasticup]

Still looking pretty good on visible, despite today's organizational hiccups. I'd say it's still around 85 kt.
https://i.imgur.com/jiEcUpN.jpg

That's a pretty storm

[cheezyWXguy]

18z microwave shows eyewall still opens to the SW.

https://i.imgur.com/tWLU3yz.jpg

HWRF looks to be onto something with that huge eyewall it depicts. Outer eyewall seems to be forming

[ElectricStorm]

18z microwave shows eyewall still opens to the SW.

https://i.imgur.com/tWLU3yz.jpg

HWRF looks to be onto something with that huge eyewall it depicts. Outer eyewall seems to be forming

HWRF has been incredible this year with these storm structures

[wx98]

No longer forecast to be a Cat 4 and instead max out at 120 mph:

...TEDDY TAKES A BREAK FROM STRENGTHENING TODAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY MORE SOON...
5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 16
Location: 17.5°N 50.8°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 973 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

[aspen]

Imagine this doesn’t even become a major now.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Good to see Teddy gaining latitude, still.might be a problem for Bermuda though.

I did notice the GFS now has Teddy forecast to turn back west in 3-4 days before getting picked up by a trough in about 6 days.

All the models are in good agreement that Teddy will recurve in about a week.

Euro would like a word with you lol...

[aspen]

Some very deep convection on the NW side, just waiting for any break in shear to wrap around to the other side.

[ClarCari]

Any re-solidification of the eye will lead to at least a slight burst of RI, only my best guess based on how these storms have performed this year.
NHC forecasts and models rarely if ever take into account RI as it’s not something you can really forecast from a professional standpoint.

I hope this year helps us better able to understand and predict Rapid Intensification in the future for more accurate and less surprising storms.

[ElectricStorm]

Some very deep convection on the NW side, just waiting for any break in shear to wrap around to the other side.
https://i.imgur.com/mfqcA25.jpg

If that wraps all the way around this will explode

[TheStormExpert]

Imagine this doesn’t even become a major now.

Good grief!

[CrazyC83]

Some very deep convection on the NW side, just waiting for any break in shear to wrap around to the other side.
https://i.imgur.com/mfqcA25.jpg

If that convection can wrap and an eye opens up, Teddy is off to the races.

[ElectricStorm]

Imagine this doesn’t even become a major now.

NHC doesn't think shear is going to get better for Teddy and it hasn't done much today to there's always a chance...
But I still think he does

[CrazyC83]

Seeing this much CDG is never a good thing. Imagine if this wraps all the way around.

[Do_For_Love]

Imagine this doesn’t even become a major now.

lol I guess that is possible now. A little disappointing, I kinda wanted to see a monster fish storm...since the potential of bermuda/NA hit has risen though, it would be for the best to stay weaker obviously.

Of course, NHC is still calling for a Cat 3, so we'll see what happens.

[supercane4867]

Hard to imagine it not becoming a major. The potential is still there albeit short term obstacles.

[ElectricStorm]

Seeing this much CDG is never a good thing. Imagine if this wraps all the way around.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/20L.GIF

Geez thats quite the CDG for an Atlantic storm

[AnnularCane]

At least give the Tedster a chance!

[aspen]

Hard to imagine it not becoming a major. The potential is still there albeit short term obstacles.

https://i.imgur.com/Zocbhcj.jpg

Outflow-wise, Teddy reminds me a lot of Lorenzo from when it first began RI into a major to its final peak intensity.

[aspen]

When does recon head out tomorrow? 14z or 18z?

[St0rmTh0r]

Seeing this much CDG is never a good thing. Imagine if this wraps all the way around.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/20L.GIF

Geez thats quite the CDG for an Atlantic storm

Troposphere is cooler GCane pointed this out not too long ago.