ATL: EPSILON - Post-Tropical

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CrazyC83
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#281 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:02 pm

JRD wrote:So, Epsilon is going to be a major hurricane, and it was a tropical storm just barely over half a day ago. Seems like a classic case of tropical rapid intensification. And once it turns extratropical, it's forecast to also undergo bombogenesis. Interesting to see both kinds of rapid deepening in a single cyclone.


Its lowest pressure may be a little ways away even after the winds come down. I know models bring it into the 920s after becoming ET.
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#282 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:08 pm

Eyewall dropsonde measured surface winds of 106 kt.
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#283 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:09 pm

aspen wrote:Eyewall dropsonde measured surface winds of 106 kt.


That could be what bumps it to 100 kt, even if it isn't a perfect measure.
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#284 Postby plasticup » Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:09 pm

aspen wrote:Eyewall dropsonde measured surface winds of 106 kt.


Presumably a gust, but damn.
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#285 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:10 pm

aspen wrote:Eyewall dropsonde measured surface winds of 106 kt.

It just hasn't been posted yet in the recon thread?
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#286 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:12 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
aspen wrote:Eyewall dropsonde measured surface winds of 106 kt.

It just hasn't been posted yet in the recon thread?


It came in so fast that I wasn't able to catch up to it.
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#287 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:19 pm

New dropsonde, #12
954MB O_O

Image
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#288 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:21 pm

aspen wrote:Eyewall dropsonde measured surface winds of 106 kt.

Eye dropsonde of 954 MB.
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#289 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:22 pm

That pressure of 953 mb (after adjustment) definitely suggests it is now a major in concert with other data.
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#290 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:22 pm

I don't think that this was a gust, the North eyewall is known for stronger winds.

Image
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#291 Postby Ubuntwo » Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:23 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
aspen wrote:Eyewall dropsonde measured surface winds of 106 kt.

Eye dropsonde of 954 MB.

Nope, surface was 956. It just stopped reporting winds a little above there.
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#292 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:24 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:That pressure of 953 mb (after adjustment) definitely suggests it is now a major in concert with other data.

Definitely seems like a major to me. Could the NHC feel comfortable with another special advisory? Or maybe they just wait until 4
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#293 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:25 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
aspen wrote:Eyewall dropsonde measured surface winds of 106 kt.

Eye dropsonde of 954 MB.

Nope, surface was 956. It just stopped reporting winds a little above there.

I see
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#294 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:31 pm

At this rate, Epsilon will be in the low 950s during the third pass, which looks like it’ll go through the NW quadrant again.
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#295 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:38 pm

Derek was the first to call the GFS model-cane bogus. I’m sure he’s right again here! :wink:

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1318960856722509824


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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#296 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:40 pm

aspen wrote:At this rate, Epsilon will be in the low 950s during the third pass, which looks like it’ll go through the NW quadrant again.

Going from the south to the north.
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#297 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:49 pm

Man the map at the top of this thread is just done with this season. Still has it as a TD lol :lol:
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#298 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:51 pm

AL, 27, 2020102118, , BEST, 0, 294N, 597W, 100, 955, HU
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#299 Postby JRD » Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:53 pm

Weather Dude wrote:Man the map at the top of this thread is just done with this season. Still has it as a TD lol :lol:

Maybe the map glitched because of having 94L turn to 27 and then Epsilon in just hours, and then turning from a TS through Cat 1 and Cat 2 to soon a Cat 3 again in just hours, and overall in just 2 to 4 days.
Last edited by JRD on Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#300 Postby Ryxn » Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:54 pm

We have Major Hurricane Epsilon folks!
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