ATL: LAURA - Models

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS, 18z HMON, 18z HWRF-P, and 18z HWRF all have landfall in almost the same exact spot. Bolivar Peninsula to High Island. Houston would avoid the worst of it.

Deep systems like this would wobble a lot. Every wobble on approach could have consequences.

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro running soon.

[Cpv17]

So what could make this go further west and south? Maybe towards port o connor? Is this possible or not really?

The Para ensembles seem to think so. So do some of the Euro ensembles.

[catskillfire51]

18z Euro running soon.

Already started

[cheezyWXguy]

Do not put stock into exact landfall points yet. Remember, the gfs and HMON initialized too far north and this can have downstream impacts. We are also still 3-4 days out and things can change. These are bad trends though

[jaguars_22]

So the overall shift has been west today? Which means tomorrow could be even more west or East... I just don’t see it going all the way across the gulf west and hitting me in mid texas

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro running soon.

Through hour 15, the center seems to be south of Cuba, less land interaction. 999mb.

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro running soon.

Through hour 15, the center seems to be south of Cuba, less land interaction. 999mb.

Through hour 24 it's back over Cuba moving WNW. Should emerge into the GOM soon.

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro running soon.

Through hour 15, the center seems to be south of Cuba, less land interaction. 999mb.

Through hour 24 it's back over Cuba moving WNW. Should emerge into the GOM soon.

Hour 30 it's 995mb in the GOM. Stronger than the 12z so far.

[SoupBone]

Through hour 15, the center seems to be south of Cuba, less land interaction. 999mb.

Through hour 24 it's back over Cuba moving WNW. Should emerge into the GOM soon.

Hour 30 it's 995mb in the GOM. Stronger than the 12z so far.

What about location comparison?

[NevadaFan18]

Through hour 15, the center seems to be south of Cuba, less land interaction. 999mb.

Through hour 24 it's back over Cuba moving WNW. Should emerge into the GOM soon.

Hour 30 it's 995mb in the GOM. Stronger than the 12z so far.

987 mb at 42 hours

[HurricaneFrances04]

More than 72 hours out is too soon to pencil in an exact landfall spot. Especially with a storm like this which keeps wanting to go further south and west than forecast.

[catskillfire51]

Through hour 24 it's back over Cuba moving WNW. Should emerge into the GOM soon.

Hour 30 it's 995mb in the GOM. Stronger than the 12z so far.

What about location comparison?

So far seems similar to 12z weak and toward NOLA have to see if it changes

[Blinhart]

This takes the core and surge north of Galveston and the Houston metro. It will be extremely close. 30 miles one way or the other could mean a $300 Billion storm vs. a $30 Billion storm.

"Leveled off" upon land fall. 18z HWRF hours 75-84:
https://i.imgur.com/doou5Ip.gif

either way it very much could be a 300 million dollar storm, Lake Charles has a lot of refineries and Liquid Natural Gas plants that were just built.

[Kingarabian]

Hour 30 it's 995mb in the GOM. Stronger than the 12z so far.

What about location comparison?

So far seems similar to 12z weak and toward NOLA have to see if it changes

Yeah through hour 54 it's moving pretty much NW towards NOLA.

[eastcoastFL]

Hour 30 it's 995mb in the GOM. Stronger than the 12z so far.

What about location comparison?

So far seems similar to 12z weak and toward NOLA have to see if it changes

It’s weaker?

[shah83]

Must be doing the Marco-shear tangle again.

[catskillfire51]

What about location comparison?

So far seems similar to 12z weak and toward NOLA have to see if it changes

It’s weaker?

It's strong 979MB just weaker compared to other models

[bohai]

More like 3 billion or more. Port Arthus has a ton of refineries too. Crude prices should go up if this materializes. < And as you go toward Houston, the SHip Channel area and Channelview all along the Galveston bay waterfront is loaded with chemical plants and refineries. Not a good situation.

[South Texas Storms]

Panic time for Galveston/Houston yet?

There is no panic time. Prepare now in case the track shifts west. Buying groceries and filling up the gas tank is a good start. I did that a few days ago.