ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

If shear wasn’t enough there’s also a thin layer of SAL out ahead of it over South Florida and the NW Bahamas along with plenty of mid-level dry air ahead.

https://i.ibb.co/TKQ7jys/4-B9-CD977-35-AF-48-F4-996-E-363-D06-D04910.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/GnFWLG2/C5-FC72-C2-0214-4-D32-8-AFD-B7545-A86489-D.jpg

In its earlier days dry air and sal didn’t seem to bother it much because of the moisture pocket. Does it still have plenty of moisture?

[ConvergenceZone]

It looks like shear is going to increase over the next 24 hrs. Shear decreases once it turns north to NNE on Sunday.

Which I think is going to bring this right into the East Coast

[HurricaneFrances04]

The GFS has shown the anticyclone being displaced to the south of Isaias, which is why the NHC and other experts have expected SW shear.

[AutoPenalti]

I disagree. It looks really bad right now. Shear has a lot to do with it but so does the fact that Hispaniola ripped a lot of the storms around it. Like I said, this could be a tropical wave by this time tomorrow. The shear is only getting worse.

I think the odds of it being an open wave are as good as it being cat2 tomorrow

We’ll see. Just saying there’s a chance of it becoming a wave. I think it’ll be a weak TS that goes into So. Fl with a naked swirl and then quickly be downgraded to just a low as it drifts north. That’s just my opinion and it looks liked the CMC and latest Euro from 06z are leaning that way too.

Just posting what I’m seeing and hearing from the experts...it’s in trouble.

You have a degree in meteorology, you're technically up there in knowledge compared to the rest of us.

[Jr0d]

The hurricane hunter has just flown through a fairly large area of 65kt flight level winds with some 60kt SFMR winds that dont appear to be flagged. This tells me Isaias is maintaining hurricane strength.

I really hope they have enough fuel/time for one more pass at the center to get a better idea of the pressure.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Even the most bearish models don't have Isaias opening up into a wave. A sheared weak tropical storm at worse.

[Weatherboy1]

Wasn't this expected? I remember Aric saying yesterday that it's inflow will be cut off by Hispaniola and it will struggle for a bit.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

yes it’s just this forum is so ADHD everyone just completely changes their mind on the storm based on short term changes

It’s so crazy how everyone is calling time of death on this storm and it’s been struggling for what, an hour? It’s survived worse. Let’s see where we’re sitting at the end of the day.

Exactly. And sure enough, an hour later we have a round of deep convection firing off right over the center. Patience is a virtue in hurricane watching!

[robbielyn]

Levi tweeted that SW shear is forcing dry air into the core but could be 70+ in the bahamas

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think he meant no evidence the storm would die as the one poster indicated.

That is exactly what I meant

[BobHarlem]

Guaranteed lively day here today.

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1289200029190647808

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1289194420877684738

[Nuno]

It looks like shear is going to increase over the next 24 hrs. Shear decreases once it turns north to NNE on Sunday.

Bahamas are showing decreasing shear, is this increased shear coming from the displaced anticyclone to it's south?

[otowntiger]

I predict that the NHC will shift the track west some, but not enough to bring it on shore. They will extend Tropical storm watches and warnings accordingly but no hurricane watches/warnings for any mainland areas, largely due to the fact that it is now in such bad shape and the majority of the modeling is suggesting that it will be weak/weakening as it approaches the southeast.

[Weatherboy1]

I fully expect TS watches to be converted to TS warnings for a decent chunk of the FL east coast given westerly shift in some models. Don't think they go to a Hurricane Watch now, but rather wait to see how storm does today vs. shear and/or to see how midday models shake out. If trends continue and shear eases, expect that at 5 p.m.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I dont see much in the way of flow ahead of this...and it looks like it is reestablishing its anticyclone.

[cp79]

Best case would be a Florida landfall and it takes the CMC route. That means it makes landfall as either a depression, wave or weak storm and the Carolinas are off the hook. Shear will lessen if it gains further latitude north, but If you look at the WV, you can clearly see the winds racing from the south by CubA and getting into this system.

[aspen]

Recon dropsondes have recorded differing wind directions starting around the 800-850 mbar level. It’s not that bad of shear, but enough to hamper Isaias’ organization and intensification, as we’ve seen this morning.

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami snippet:

The wind field currently around Hurricane Isaias is rather large.
Exactly how large the wind field will be when it nears our region
to the east is still a bit unknown, but with high pressure
residing in the Gulf as well as across the Atlantic, expect some
breezy conditions nonetheless. We are still monitoring the motion
and forecast of Isaias. We can`t stress how important it is that
one small shift in track will dramatically change overall impacts.
Be sure to follow the Hurricane Local Statements through today or
the very latest on the forecast evolution of Hurricane Isaias as
some changes are still possible.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

[lhpfish]

Got gas and water Tuesday.

It's going to be a cluster if they throw up watches.

I have a feeling the ridging might be stronger than intended and we might be seeing a strong TS/Cat 1 conditions here in NE Broward.

(Not a forecast)

[eastcoastFL]

Best case would be a Florida landfall and it takes the CMC route. That means it makes landfall as either a depression, wave or weak storm and the Carolinas are off the hook. Shear will lessen if it gains further latitude north, but If you look at the WV, you can clearly see the winds racing from the south by CubA and getting into this system.

How does that work with the winds from Cuba going into the system? I don’t think I’ve heard that before.