ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

The 11AM position is .1 north and .6 west of where NHC forecast it to be at this point in the 11pm advisory last night.

yep keeps staying the far left side of the cone. sometimes out of the cone..

For Florida, model watching over it's satellite time.

Yes and now back to nowcasting like yesterday, the models are for entertainment, we have real weather to watch from this point forward

[SFLcane]

Here we go SFL!

Get ready.

[eastcoastFL]

Anyone have a good Bahamas radar link?

[ObsessedMiami]

Here we go SFL!

Get ready.

Very small window for folks to freak out in SFL but I’m sure they will manage

Got my generator gas just in case this morning in Kendall and all was quiet at the gas stations but grocery stores are hopping

[tropicwatch]

yep keeps staying the far left side of the cone. sometimes out of the cone..

For Florida, model watching over it's satellite time.

Yes and now back to nowcasting like yesterday, the models are for entertainment, we have real weather to watch from this point forward

At certain points it is better to look out the window and see what is actually happening

[Category6]

He looks like he's moving WNW at a pretty good clip. The turn has to be sharper than what the current cone shows, otherwise I don't see how this doesn't at least clip/graze the east FL coastline.

[hohnywx]

The 11AM position is .1 north and .6 west of where NHC forecast it to be at this point in the 11pm advisory last night.

yep keeps staying the far left side of the cone. sometimes out of the cone..

It's going to have to turn hard NW in the next few hours or else Florida may be in for a surprise.

They shouldn't be. They are under a TS Warning and Hurricane Watch. Storms end up outside the cone a full 30-40% of the time.

[NCWeatherChic]

HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of the Florida east
coast from north of Deerfield Beach northward to the
Volusia-Brevard County Line.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for portions of the
Florida east coast from north of Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian
Inlet and for Lake Okeechobee.

Wow, looks like FL is in play again, any 'good news' from earlier was short lived, and Miami north to Daytona are not out of the woods yet! No bueno, gonna be a close call. Hopefully Southeast FL lucks out the way they did with Matthew.

Oh Lord, I hate to even think of a Matthew again. We are 88 miles inland as a crow flies and we had so much damage to our home. We were fortunate though because many folks were flooded. Ours was wind blown rain. Roof damage, exterior damage and rain blown in and water running down our walls in my bedroom and our dining room. We never figured out how it did that! We did go get propane this morning for our grill to.cook with and gas for our generator just in case we do have any power outage here. Not worth waiting til the last minute. We'll use the stuff either way.

[Category6]

yep keeps staying the far left side of the cone. sometimes out of the cone..

It's going to have to turn hard NW in the next few hours or else Florida may be in for a surprise.

They shouldn't be. They are under a TS Warning and Hurricane Watch. Storms end up outside the cone a full 30-40% of the time.

That's true, but the average person who doesn't know much about tropical cyclones doesn't understand that.

[jlauderdal]

Anyone have a good Bahamas radar link?

http://smartmet.bahamasweather.org.bs/radarcomposite/

[HurricaneFrances04]

NWS is now saying plan for the threat of a hurricane along the coast between West Palm Beach and Cape Canaveral:

https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?of ... HQPw8w#hti

For: Metro Palm Beach County

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Watch means hurricane-force winds are possible somewhere
within this area within the next 48 hours

A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Boca West
- Palm Springs
- Florida Gardens
- Palm Beach Gardens

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm
force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 30-40 mph with gusts to 60
mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Saturday
afternoon until Sunday morning

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY:
Potential for wind 74 to 110 mph
- The wind threat has increased from the previous
assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for life-threatening wind of
equivalent CAT 1 or 2 hurricane force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and
property should be urgently completed. Prepare
for considerable wind damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind
becomes hazardous.

- Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat
as depicted on the left.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- https://www.weather.gov/mfl
- http://www.co-palm-beach.fl.us

[NDG]

IMO, I think this is why Isaias weakened this morning, there was diverging surface winds on the NW quadrant ahead of its path as caught by ASCAT last night, because of the Hispaniola. Now that it is moving away from it convergence is starting to get going again near its LLC,

[DestinHurricane]

yep keeps staying the far left side of the cone. sometimes out of the cone..

It's going to have to turn hard NW in the next few hours or else Florida may be in for a surprise.

They shouldn't be. They are under a TS Warning and Hurricane Watch. Storms end up outside the cone a full 30-40% of the time.

South FL hasn't even been outside the cone except maybe dade County. People I know are unprepared here in Boca and they think nothing will happen.

[aspen]

The partial eyewall mentioned in the 11am discussion can be seen in microwave imagery from a few hours ago.

[NDG]

yep keeps staying the far left side of the cone. sometimes out of the cone..

For Florida, model watching over it's satellite time.

Yes and now back to nowcasting like yesterday, the models are for entertainment, we have real weather to watch from this point forward

How about that Hurricane Watch for parts of the FL East Coast.
Money

[Jr0d]

It looks like the recon is having one more pass at the center. It should be there in about 15 minutes are so. It will interesting if there is a pressure drop associated with the recent burst of convection.

[jlauderdal]

For Florida, model watching over it's satellite time.

Yes and now back to nowcasting like yesterday, the models are for entertainment, we have real weather to watch from this point forward

How about that Hurricane Watch for parts of the FL East Coast.
Money

They had do it, might even get expanded southwards. The money point was the cost of a hurricane watch/warning is significantly higher than TS. Lets hope damage is minimal and they can manage to keep covid form spreading in shelters.

[jconsor]

We are potentially heading into uncharted territory climatologically for points relatively far north along the US East Coast, e.g NY/New England:

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1289151868741079040

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1289221635854090240

[eastcoastFL]

NWS is now saying plan for the threat of a hurricane along the coast between West Palm Beach and Cape Canaveral:

https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?of ... HQPw8w#hti

https://i.imgur.com/4hMq27x.png

For: Metro Palm Beach County

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Watch means hurricane-force winds are possible somewhere
within this area within the next 48 hours

A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Boca West
- Palm Springs
- Florida Gardens
- Palm Beach Gardens

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm
force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 30-40 mph with gusts to 60
mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Saturday
afternoon until Sunday morning

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY:
Potential for wind 74 to 110 mph
- The wind threat has increased from the previous
assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for life-threatening wind of
equivalent CAT 1 or 2 hurricane force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and
property should be urgently completed. Prepare
for considerable wind damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind
becomes hazardous.

- Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat
as depicted on the left.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- https://www.weather.gov/mfl
- http://www.co-palm-beach.fl.us

I’m about 4 miles inside the red