ATL: LAURA - Models

[Beef Stew]

The 00z UKMET run, for reference.

[Highteeld]

woah, thats pretty far west. Is that the UKMET?

Yeah, that's the UKMET.

41 miles inland at 948 mb bodes poorly for Texas

https://i.imgur.com/gB16Bk3.png

here is the previous landfall location of Laura for reference

[AxaltaRacing24]

i feel bad for anybody who is in the potential path for this. there’s so much uncertainty with all of these shifts just 3 days out. and with a storm predicted to be this strong, every shift is important and potentially game changing.

[Hammy]

Why is there always such a huge gap between UKMET's pressure and the winds you'd expect with it?

[bella_may]

HMON just took a northeast jog at hour 39? That’s a new one

[gqhebert]

Seems like most models are struggling with the strenght of the ridge, if you look at the water vapor images you can see it building westward and almost shoving Laura west and is building in quickly as Marco move towards the coast

[Keldeo1997]

Uhhh

[cheezyWXguy]

Neither the HMON nor the HWRF seem to be making much sense in the near term. I would guess they're having trouble resolving the system's evolution since it's so broad.

[Highteeld]

Why is there always such a huge gap between UKMET's pressure and the winds you'd expect with it?

Probably resolution error. hour 84 forecast is over land, so it's accounting for friction as well.

[Hurricaneman]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/745830682177306664/747316865621033061/hwrf_ref_13L_fh9-15.gif


Uhhh

HWRF heading SE between hr12 and 15, possibly having trouble with relocations

[catskillfire51]

surprisingly HMON at 66 hours is 2mb stronger but further north.

[Shell Mound]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/745830682177306664/747316865621033061/hwrf_ref_13L_fh9-15.gif


Uhhh

HWRF heading SE between hr12 and 15, possibly having trouble with relocations

The relocation means long-term intensity could be significantly underestimated by even the most bullish models thus far. Cat-5 is possible down the line.

[Highteeld]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/745830682177306664/747316865621033061/hwrf_ref_13L_fh9-15.gif


Uhhh

HWRF heading SE between hr12 and 15, possibly having trouble with relocations

The relocation means long-term intensity could be significantly underestimated by even the most bullish models thus far. Cat-5 is possible down the line.

This. It would put 900 mb into play as a peak intensity.

[Kingarabian]

00z HMON hour 66:

[Kingarabian]

00z HMON hour 72:

[Kingarabian]

00z HWRF hour 45+trend:

[cheezyWXguy]

00z HMON hour 66:
https://i.imgur.com/Tij3kTX.png

Lol, this run has been ridiculous. Between this run and the previous, I am really not putting much stock in the HMON right now. I don’t think this or the HWRF are going to be of much use until we figure out what is going on with the center of this thing.

[catskillfire51]

Hmon and HWRF are both going further east

[CrazyC83]

With the center being poorly assessed, I'd throw out the 00Z models as they haven't resolved the current situation.

[catskillfire51]

With the center being poorly assessed, I'd throw out the 00Z models as they haven't resolved the current situation.

I was thinking that too, you think by tomorrow we should get something more concrete? I'm planning for the worst anyway but just frustrating. Surprisingly 3 years ago today we were doing the same thing with Harvey in my area, at least then we had a clue