ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical

[Ubuntwo]

Looks like the center is reforming to the NE, maybe 50 miles northeast of West End

[GCANE]

Entaining 4000 CAPE air now.
Recon seeing some 20 knot surface winds.

[drezee]

Recon stopped the LLC invest. They closed it off and started looking for the strongest winds. My belief is a STD classification shortly.

Early on there was a band to the North that would suggest a 35 mph system at this time.

[GCANE]

RAP has it moved

[GCANE]

Recon should see some decent surface winds when they make the turn to the north.

[Aric Dunn]

RAP has it moved

https://i.imgur.com/RKLlwug.gif

yeah there is little doubt it is tightening under that convective burst. hopefully they fly back through that area.

[eastcoastFL]

It’s looking pretty good On radar this morning. We had some impressive storms earlier here in palm city. Suns out now.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah individual cells are starting to rotate around inside that cluster on radar.

[Jr0d]

The ULA Atlas V was scrubbed due to the disturbance. They will try again tomorrow. This pushes SpaceX's launch to Monday, however the storm will likely cause that to be delayed due to it being in the vicinity of the booster recovery zone.

[Ian2401]

Thinking they gotta go PTC 1 soon at the least

[Aric Dunn]

Temp and dew point profile seems to be inline tropical thus far.

also given that it is now shedding the outer convection and building convection around the center would push this over to a TD/TS

[Do_For_Love]

Looks like 90L is starting to pull together today as predicted...It's my birthday, so it would be kinda cool if the first storm of the season was today, haha.

I think I saw that if 90L becomes Arthur, it would be 7 years in a row with a "pre-season" storm.

[Ubuntwo]

Bunch of convective popups near and to the east of the center.

[wxman57]

Thinking they gotta go PTC 1 soon at the least

That's true, according to their criteria. Or just initiate advisories on STD One. We're on advisory 9 now. Started them on Thursday.

[Aric Dunn]

Another thing to note..

given where the center is taking shape and the overall momentum of the vorticity.. I would not be surprised to see a small cyclonic loop to the nw as the center deepens and tightens.

[northjaxpro]

Looks like 90L is starting to pull together today as predicted...It's my birthday, so it would be kinda cool if the first storm of the season was today, haha.

I think I saw that if 90L becomes Arthur, it would be 7 years in a row with a "pre-season" storm.

It now is 8 early season cyclones seen the past 9 years , including Beryl in 2012, which landfalled here in NE FL in the Jax Beach area.

[Ubuntwo]

Looks like 90L is starting to pull together today as predicted...It's my birthday, so it would be kinda cool if the first storm of the season was today, haha.

I think I saw that if 90L becomes Arthur, it would be 7 years in a row with a "pre-season" storm.

It now is 8 early season cyclones seen the past 9 years , including Beryl in 2012, which landfalled here in Jax Beach area.

Would be 6 in the past 9 years, 2011, 2013, and 2014 did not have early development

[GCANE]

Seeing a lower-level eddy starting to move across Abaco, SE to NW

[northjaxpro]

Looks like 90L is starting to pull together today as predicted...It's my birthday, so it would be kinda cool if the first storm of the season was today, haha.

I think I saw that if 90L becomes Arthur, it would be 7 years in a row with a "pre-season" storm.

It now is 8 early season cyclones seen the past 9 years , including Beryl in 2012, which landfalled here in Jax Beach area.

Would be 6 in the past 9 years, 2011, 2013, and 2014 did not have early development

I forgiot about 2011., to go along with 2013 iI omitted. Thanks!. So 6 in 9 years. Still very impressive.

[Aric Dunn]

I am going to go with a center fix right around here..