ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

This thing looks to be rapidly trying to deepen now..

recon cannot get there soon enough

[GCANE]

Lightning picking up on those two towers

[GCANE]

This thing looks to be rapidly trying to deepen now..

recon cannot get there soon enough

Looks like the mid and low-level vorts are stacked.

[BYG Jacob]

This thing looks to be rapidly trying to deepen now..

recon cannot get there soon enough

Looks like the mid and low-level vorts are stacked.

Indeed, looks like we have Cristobal

[GCANE]

I am watching that east tower.
Looks like it maybe firing off a feeder band.
If a feeder band is there, it could have some profound consequences.
It could mean its pulling moisture out of the BoT across the IoT.
What that implies is that it is cutting off from the CAG.
If 03 rapidly deepens, that could likely be the case.
Current steering is for a stronger TC to move north more quickly.

[KatDaddy]

Checking in from League City, TX in Galveston County. Its been awhile but here we go.........the tropics watch continues onward. So many unknowns at this point but I expect this to become TS Cristobal today. Hopefully we do not have TS Cristobal in the Central GOM early Saturday morning at 65MPH with many models pointing toward the Upper TX Coast and SW LA. Hopefully by Thursday we will have a much better idea but we may not........a tough forecast week ahead.

[GCANE]

High helicity with the west tower.
Its going fast.

[GCANE]

Cumulus forming along the dryline in the west GOM also starting to pour into this.

[GCANE]

Winds picking up at the BoC buoy.
Gusting to 33 knots.
Pretty far away.
Good chance this is a TS.

[plasticup]

Good morning, Cristobal

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Definitely agree this is a TS. Might even be 40 knots.

[gfsperpendicular]

Ooooh look at those feeder bands!

[shiny-pebble]

NHC had a stalling or SE motion going ahead but still looks like its chugging ahead to me

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[tailgater]

Nice work Gcane love those images off Ramdis site. CDO is expanding now, maybe drifting Sw now also. BoC can really wrap a weak system up if the conditions are right.

[GCANE]

A large Theta-E ridge is rapidly building over this.
Centered to the NE and takes up a large portion of the southern GOM.
Explains why this is rapidly developing.
Any move to the NE and this will likely develop more.

[GCANE]

Nice work Gcane love those images off Ramdis site. Cod is expanding now, maybe drifting Sw now also. BoC can really wrap a weak system up if the conditions are right.

Much thanks Tailgater!!

[aspen]

12z best track update is unusually late....

[Kazmit]

If this stays offshore, watch out. An already well developed system will pose a greater threat than something still getting its act together (like the GFS shows) as it leaves the BOC.

[Buck]

Will be the earliest C-name, but does anyone know the stats on earliest Bay of Campeche and GOM storms?

[tolakram]

SLIDER visible

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=830.8538208007812&y=888.8389892578125