ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[EquusStorm]

Definitely looks like Gonzalo at 11; if that blowup over the center continues and starts being a CDO then wow

[abajan]

Not sure if it's been posted already, but here's Levi Cowan's update.

[SFLcane]

if the center is truly where the curved band of deep -80+ convection is then we are well farther a long than a depression..

https://i.ibb.co/d0hVwNy/Capture.png

Well thankfully it's not because it's on the Eastern edge of that convection because of the shear from the East.

[Aric Dunn]

if the center is truly where the curved band of deep -80+ convection is then we are well farther a long than a depression..

https://i.ibb.co/d0hVwNy/Capture.png

Well thankfully it's not because it's on the Eastern edge of that convection because of the shear from the East.

I would have to disagree. since the last burst of convection that started this a couple of hours ago was on the East side of the circ..

watched the towers wrap all the way around before sunset.

[TheProfessor]

The center is likely underneath the latest batch of convection going off the 18z best track and the fact it's likely a bit west of that location now.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like a scenario we've seen played out plenty of times: tiny storm, relatively low-shear environment, missed by almost all the models. I bet it'll ramp up close to hurricane status or outright become one, before weakening due to increased shear by the islands.

[tiger_deF]

Deepest convection we've seen with this system yet is firing off right now a little to the SW of the previous burst, the overall coverage of convection has improved though and I would definitely say this is in the process of strengthening in it's own little moisture pocket

[sma10]

Not sure if it's been posted already, but here's Levi Cowan's update.

Outstanding discussion of TD7

[aspen]

Levi points out two scenarios in his discussion of TD7: either it remains weak and further south, or it gets stronger and further north. This is all due to an incoming SAL surge that will try to pull the system. If it gets stronger and stays further south in the short term, it would be more likely to survive and later get pulled slightly north. This is what the HWRF has been insistent on. However, less strengthening and a slightly more north track in the next 24-48 hours would mean a weaker system that dies quicker, similar to the GFS and Euro runs.

[St0rmTh0r]

if the center is truly where the curved band of deep -80+ convection is then we are well farther a long than a depression..

https://i.ibb.co/d0hVwNy/Capture.png

What are the RI chances? If this sustains it has to be a strong possibility

[Aric Dunn]

if the center is truly where the curved band of deep -80+ convection is then we are well farther a long than a depression..

https://i.ibb.co/d0hVwNy/Capture.png

What are the RI chances? If this sustains it has to be a strong possibility

well it would have to not speed up. So it would need to have a quick bump up in strength in the next 12 to 24 hours. keep its current speed for a day or so.. then assuming all goes well ...

then some RI is quite possible thursday into friday.

but if it gets caught in the flow to the north it will have issues.

[storminabox]

Looks like a scenario we've seen played out plenty of times: tiny storm, relatively low-shear environment, missed by almost all the models. I bet it'll ramp up close to hurricane status or outright become one, before weakening due to increased shear by the islands.

This seems like the most reasonable scenario to me.

[Aric Dunn]

another big burst looks like its starting between the two previous bursts. which is likely where the center its.

this new one looks like it is back on the NE side as its rotating north.

[GeneratorPower]

another big burst looks like its starting between the two previous bursts. which is likely where the center its.

I bet we just keep seeing new bursts that fizzle put replaced by another new burst that later fizzles. Not sure why this happens.

[Aric Dunn]

another big burst looks like its starting between the two previous bursts. which is likely where the center its.

I bet we just keep seeing new bursts that fizzle put replaced by another new burst that later fizzles. Not sure why this happens.

the last two have not fizzled ... convection was maintained ....just not -90 tops.

[aspen]

Looks good enough to be upgraded to 35 kt for 00z. This will easily surpass Gert ‘05 to be the earliest G-named storm in the Atlantic.

It’ll also be traversing through several pockets of nice and high OHC. Perhaps moving into slightly higher OHC could trigger a phase of rapid intensification, if it happens to coincide with the system having the right structure.

[Aric Dunn]

These burst and towers rotating are building up the mid and upper level vorticity. as to keep happening for a little long.

[NDG]

Looks good enough to be upgraded to 35 kt for 00z. This will easily surpass Gert ‘05 to be the earliest G-named storm in the Atlantic.

It’ll also be traversing through several pockets of nice and high OHC. Perhaps moving into slightly higher OHC could trigger a phase of rapid intensification, if it happens to coincide with the system having the right structure.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al07/ohcnfcst/2020al07_ohcnfcst_202007211800.gif

OHC is not that important for tropical systems when they are moving along, warm SSTs and right atmospheric conditions are more than enough. Over the next few days it will be tracking over very warm SSTs near 29 deg C.

[wxman57]

Well, new HWRF has given up on the 92kt Cat 2 hurricane. Now has peak winds only 58 kts. Big change. More realistic, but likely still too strong.

[aspen]

Kept at 30 kt for 00z. I’m surprised.