ATL: PAULETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[chaser1]

Major is explicitly forecast:

INIT 13/1500Z 29.9N 61.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 30.9N 63.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 32.8N 64.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 35.0N 63.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 37.0N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 39.1N 55.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 41.4N 49.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 43.9N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 44.0N 36.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Will be well clear of Bermuda by then, thankfully

Nope, i'm thinking that you may just get Paulette as it reaches Cat 3 a bit after day-break tomm. a.m. Even if you just receive 100mph winds, you could get your strongest gusts from the west on the southern eyewall. It may well deepen and peak later during the day tomm. or tomm. night after it's core has moved further away from the island but that won't take away the thrashing that Bermuda looks like it'll get. Gonna be a close call on the eye passing directly overhead. If so, there's a slight chance it could occur at daybreak (even though present forecast calls for landfall/closest approach being a few hours before then).

[plasticup]

Eyewall clear on radar now

[chaser1]

As aspen observed a short while ago, the inner core is certainly appearing to be better consolidated. Outflow in it's northern quad is also fanning out more impressively. If that trend continues Paulette will further moisten up the environment to it's north and likely stave off any further intrusions of dry air for the near term. NHC projects winds to increase to 80kt. by 0Z this evening. I think there's a fair chance that it might be a bit stronger yet. If not by then, perhaps later this evening leading up to the 11:00pm advisory

[aspen]

As aspen observed a short while ago, the inner core is certainly appearing to be better consolidated. Outflow in it's northern quad is also fanning out more impressively. If that trend continues Paulette will further moisten up the environment to it's north and likely stave off any further intrusions of dry air for the near term. NHC projects winds to increase to 80kt. by 0Z this evening. I think there's a fair chance that it might be a bit stronger yet. If not by then, perhaps later this evening leading up to the 11:00pm advisory

Also, the current organizational trends will be leading into Dmax, so once that does arrive, Paulette will be in a prime position to continue RI and get a bit of a boost form cooler cloud tops. I could see it trying to become a major in the next 24 hours, even though this current recon flight hasn’t found a stronger storm.

[chaser1]

As far as Bermuda is concerned, it seems like Paulette will be at least as bad as Gonzalo in '14 and possibly a little worse. I don't recall but did Fay or Gonzalo that year landfall at night as well?

[Kazmit]

As far as Bermuda is concerned, it seems like Paulette will be at least as bad as Gonzalo in '14 and possibly a little worse. I don't recall but did Fay or Gonzalo that year landfall at night as well?

In Gonzalo the eye went over at night. Fay landfalled in the early morning.

[plasticup]

Really coming together now. That dry air has been dealt with and she is clearly strengthening:

[cheezyWXguy]

I am going to commit a no-no, but I feel like this is one of the few situations where it is justified. Given the large eye, environment, and location it is in, I believe there is a chance Paulette COULD go annular, if it strengthens enough. Isn’t right now though.

[plasticup]

I am going to commit a no-no, but I feel like this is one of the few situations where it is justified. Given the large eye, environment, and location it is in, I believe there is a chance Paulette COULD go annular, if it strengthens enough. Isn’t right now though.

Careful now, some folks here are likely to break your fingers for typing the a-word!

[CrazyC83]

Paulette looks excellent structurally. The only shortcoming is that the cloud tops aren't particularly deep.

[cycloneye]

Bermuda Web Cam:

https://www.portbermudawebcam.com/?fbcl ... wHBTMp7DA0

[cheezyWXguy]

I am going to commit a no-no, but I feel like this is one of the few situations where it is justified. Given the large eye, environment, and location it is in, I believe there is a chance Paulette COULD go annular, if it strengthens enough. Isn’t right now though.

Careful now, some folks here are likely to break your fingers for typing the a-word!

Haha I’m well aware, I am usually one of the ones who comes down on people for throwing it around prematurely. However, this is the region where strengthening hurricanes usually have the best chance to do that. I think it’s possible, but it’s certainly not there now.

[aspen]

Paulette looks excellent structurally. The only shortcoming is that the cloud tops aren't particularly deep.

Dmax is coming in a few hours, so Paulette’s convection won’t remain shallow for long.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/thewxgeek/status/1305217233745072129

[plasticup]

This is definitely a heck of a lot more than 75 knots:



I am expecting a big upgrade at 5pm

[psyclone]

Paulette is the real show in the Atlantic right now...by far. What a storm!

[ClarCari]

That’s a pretty...thick...looking eye...there compared...to the whole...system...

I didn’t know the “A” word was forbidden but this made me think of Isabel for a split second

Also probably the prettiest looking storm of the season.
My apologies Bermuda.

[Nimbus]

The trough split and dove SE, Paulette hooking right as the cuttoff ULL distances itself.
Any chance Bermuda gets the weaker west side of the storm?

[aspen]

This is definitely a heck of a lot more than 75 knots:

https://i.imgur.com/c65fhX6.jpg

I am expecting a big upgrade at 5pm

Nope, still 75 kt. Recon is on its way and could find a much stronger storm. I’m betting Paulette is in the high 960s by now.

[Kazmit]

Looking very good.