ATL: SALLY - Models

[MidnightRain]

HWRF very consistent with an almost due west track prior to landfall into SELA.

[Keldeo1997]

HWRF with Recon support

[Steve]

Yeah. It's got the eye across most of the (actual) city of New Orleans. 958mb at that point (Cat 3)


Looks like a beast at 60 hours as well.


Maybe the HWRF is overdoing the intensity a bit - 20mb's or so? Hopefully?

[gqhebert]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020091300/hwrf_mslp_wind_19L_21.png

HWRF with Recon support

if this verifies ...not a good season for the state of LA

[PTPatrick]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020091300/hwrf_mslp_wind_19L_21.png

HWRF with Recon support

Interestingly it’s a tad north of 18z. Between hmon Coming around and gfs and Canadian, I’m feeling more confident in a Pascagoula to Mouth of MS landfall. Feeling gfs is a tad too West and weak though. Hwrf def not a good run for New Orleans though. I wonder if the truth will be in the middle...a slowdown near chandeleur islands then a slow landfall over pearl river area.

Interestingly both Hwrf and hmon show strengthening Monday offshore. Not a ton of storms strengthen there but they can. Camille gained some there, one of the few already strong ones to do so. Most others weaken there, unless they are weak when they get there.

[Steve]

HWRF has the makings of a mega-disaster - maybe a high-side 11 figure disaster. On a personal note, we'd look to take the NW, W and S eyewall which would be a first for me and the strongest storm I've ridden out since i was 1 year old for Betsy.

Waiting on some Euro.

[Uptownmeow]

If my memory isn’t totally wine, that’s three runs in a row for the HWRF with a major into New Orleans metro?

With other models having landfall, not that intensity mind you, this way. I’m getting a wee bit nervy over here

[PTPatrick]

If my memory isn’t totally wine, that’s three runs in a row for the HWRF with a major into New Orleans metro?

With other models having landfall, not that intensity mind you, this way. I’m getting a wee bit nervy over here

Yeah And we are passed the point of a large scale New Orleans evac. They will ave tomorrow and Monday morning. So they better just hope these models is wrong. Storms that strengthen toward landfall are so tough because it’s just mentally hard for people evac when the are looking at a TS.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1305023802879991815

[Uptownmeow]

If my memory isn’t totally wine, that’s three runs in a row for the HWRF with a major into New Orleans metro?

With other models having landfall, not that intensity mind you, this way. I’m getting a wee bit nervy over here

Yeah And we are passed the point of a large scale New Orleans evac. They will ave tomorrow and Monday morning. So they better just hope these models is wrong. Storms that strengthen toward landfall are so tough because it’s just mentally hard for people evac when the are looking at a TS.

Right. Not to mention we have about 8-10k Laura evacuees in the city right now too. Looks like I’m staying up for the euro...

[SoupBone]

The HMON would be really bad for Mobile, with water pushing into Mobile Bay. The HWRF would be bad for New Orleans and the surrounding areas for surge. Either way, both of these would not be good outcomes.

[CrazyC83]

That's the absolute worst case scenario for New Orleans. I'd be seriously thinking of evacuating today (Sunday) for that.

[CrazyC83]

If my memory isn’t totally wine, that’s three runs in a row for the HWRF with a major into New Orleans metro?

With other models having landfall, not that intensity mind you, this way. I’m getting a wee bit nervy over here

Yeah And we are passed the point of a large scale New Orleans evac. They will ave tomorrow and Monday morning. So they better just hope these models is wrong. Storms that strengthen toward landfall are so tough because it’s just mentally hard for people evac when the are looking at a TS.

To do a total evacuation must start literally now. And they have fewer options since they can't really go west (damaged by Laura).

[Uptownmeow]

If my memory isn’t totally wine, that’s three runs in a row for the HWRF with a major into New Orleans metro?

With other models having landfall, not that intensity mind you, this way. I’m getting a wee bit nervy over here

Yeah And we are passed the point of a large scale New Orleans evac. They will ave tomorrow and Monday morning. So they better just hope these models is wrong. Storms that strengthen toward landfall are so tough because it’s just mentally hard for people evac when the are looking at a TS.

To do a total evacuation must start literally now. And they have fewer options since they can't really go west (damaged by Laura).

As a pro met what stock are you placing in this run ? We’ve got a place outside of the bottom of the bowl we live in we could go but playing the wait and see game as of now

[Steve]

Euro is pretty far south and west as well. On the 24 hour plots, it looks like it comes in near Grand Isle, and in a day, it basically moves a little inland to where it's maybe just west of Lake Pontchartrain at 72 hours. Certainly that switches things up from the HWRF and would give the city of New Orleans the Northeast, East and possibly southeast eyewall.

[PTPatrick]

Euro is pretty far south and west as well. On the 24 hour plots, it looks like it comes in near Grand Isle, and in a day, it basically moves a little inland to where it's maybe just west of Lake Pontchartrain at 72 hours. Certainly that switches things up from the HWRF and would give the city of New Orleans the Northeast, East and possibly southeast eyewall.

Is it weak like the gfs?

[Steve]

Euro is pretty far south and west as well. On the 24 hour plots, it looks like it comes in near Grand Isle, and in a day, it basically moves a little inland to where it's maybe just west of Lake Pontchartrain at 72 hours. Certainly that switches things up from the HWRF and would give the city of New Orleans the Northeast, East and possibly southeast eyewall.

Is it weak like the gfs?

It shows a concentric 996mb. GFS was 995mb I think - at least on the low resolution versions they are weak. It's getting closer in time to where they should be able to estimate central pressure somewhat better. I'm not really sure if a 20mb reduction is warranted within 3 days or not. Again - low resolution Tropical Tidbits outputs were all I looked at. There's better stuff out there. HWRF makes the 950's, GFS/EURO 990's, NAM 12km 970's. NAM 3km 980's.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Euro is pretty far south and west as well. On the 24 hour plots, it looks like it comes in near Grand Isle, and in a day, it basically moves a little inland to where it's maybe just west of Lake Pontchartrain at 72 hours. Certainly that switches things up from the HWRF and would give the city of New Orleans the Northeast, East and possibly southeast eyewall.

Is it weak like the gfs?

Yes, but the Euro/GFS won't resolve this as a potential hurricane threat until it's actually a hurricane. Best to focus on track now.

[PTPatrick]

Euro is pretty far south and west as well. On the 24 hour plots, it looks like it comes in near Grand Isle, and in a day, it basically moves a little inland to where it's maybe just west of Lake Pontchartrain at 72 hours. Certainly that switches things up from the HWRF and would give the city of New Orleans the Northeast, East and possibly southeast eyewall.

.
Is it weak like the gfs?

Yes, but the Euro/GFS won't resolve this as a potential hurricane threat until it's actually a hurricane. Best to focus on track now.

I guess that’s why i question them...are the just west because they see it as staying weak. Maybe that’s what happens but how much of their track is the product if then resolving a weak storm

[Steve]

.
Is it weak like the gfs?

Yes, but the Euro/GFS won't resolve this as a potential hurricane threat until it's actually a hurricane. Best to focus on track now.

I guess that’s why i question them...are the just west because they see it as staying weak. Maybe that’s what happens but how much of their track is the product if then resolving a weak storm

They're not weak per se'. They take it to Cat 1. HWRF is also in their neighborhood though much, much stronger. NAMs as well.