ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blow_Hard]

2nd Tornado Warning for Panama City/Bay County in the last 3 hours...

[CrazyC83]

Quick question for those more in tune with the forecasting profession. It is simply a formality at this point, but why are places like Gulfport and Pass Christian under Hurricane Warnings, but Fort Walton Beach is not?

It's unlikely they would change them so close to landfall, although they might on the advisory.

[Florabamaman]

Just lost power here in Pace, Fl. Running on generator already!

[edu2703]

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended east of the
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida.

The Hurricane Warning has been extended east of Navarre Florida to
the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida.

[us89]

New advisory maintains 85 mph intensity and extends hurricane warnings to the Okaloosa-Walton County line.

[La Sirena]

Quick question for those more in tune with the forecasting profession. It is simply a formality at this point, but why are places like Gulfport and Pass Christian under Hurricane Warnings, but Fort Walton Beach is not?

It's unlikely they would change them so close to landfall, although they might on the advisory.

Unfortunately, it’s proof that you should prepare for the worst but expect the best. There’s sometimes just no real way of knowing what will happen. I really hope there aren’t folks here who were unprepared.

[tropicwatch]

Tornado warning for Bay County including Panama City

Might end up a mile south of me if it makes it that far.

[Dean4Storms]

At the 4pm cdt NHC update she was at 29.5N 88.2W now she is ENE of that position and headed toward P'Cola area.

[StAuggy]

Not good. I got a sick feeling earlier today when I saw what appeared to have strengthening storm. The flooding is bad enough....serious winds on top of it is a mighty 1, 2 punch.

At least those in the warning area had plenty of time to prepare.

I hate to say this, but Sally may be going through a bombing phase right now at the worst possible time. It looks as strong as it ever has right now.

Lots of people in the panhandle thought nothing of this storm until pretty much yesterday. It was a bizarre atmosphere around here as I tried to explain to family and friends that the scenario we see now was possible.

Yeah I hope it was enough time for enough people to at least make some last minute preps for food/water at the very least. With the high rain potential and inland flooding, storm surge (which may now increase with this east trend) and now possibly coming in with stronger winds. Truly agonizing.

It’s hard to not forget Charley making that turn early.

I mentioned to my relatives in Ft Walton that if Sally stalls early there’s a good chance the panhandle is going to be in play and well here we are now.

[ElectricStorm]

NHC now has her strengthening to 90 mph at landfall

[ElectricStorm]

Uhh... This can't be right
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 SEP 2020 Time : 022016 UTC
Lat : 29:43:11 N Lon : 87:48:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 956.3mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.9 6.0

[Dean4Storms]

NHC 10pm CST has it ashore at 87.5w for landfall....that's the AL/FL border.

[DestinHurricane]

Uhh... This can't be right
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 SEP 2020 Time : 022016 UTC
Lat : 29:43:11 N Lon : 87:48:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 956.3mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.9 6.0

Something seems off.

[PTPatrick]

Well everything at the family home in Moss Point will be fine, but my family near Elsinor In Baldwin county are getting dumped on, just lost power, so I can attest power outages have started if there was any question. Hoping the river there doesn’t get out of hand.

[CrazyC83]

Uhh... This can't be right
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 SEP 2020 Time : 022016 UTC
Lat : 29:43:11 N Lon : 87:48:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 956.3mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.9 6.0

It's legit. This could REALLY strengthen more as it comes in.

[ElectricStorm]

Uhh... This can't be right
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 SEP 2020 Time : 022016 UTC
Lat : 29:43:11 N Lon : 87:48:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 956.3mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.9 6.0

Something seems off.

Thankfully

[DestinHurricane]

Uhh... This can't be right
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 SEP 2020 Time : 022016 UTC
Lat : 29:43:11 N Lon : 87:48:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 956.3mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.9 6.0

It's legit. This could REALLY strengthen more as it comes in.

What do you think is the ceiling?

[jasons2k]

I'm getting very concerned about the surge potential in the Pensacola area due to the angle of the coast and the angle of the storm's approach almost like this <

I hope anyone along the coast from Gulf Shores all the way down the Panama City is taking this storm seriously. Some of those cells even well east of the core have some mean looking rotation. Another thing to consider is that the Florida panhandle rises a few hundred feet, pretty quickly, as you work inland. Normally not a big deal but when you have near hurricane-force winds, sustained from the SE coming-in over such a large area, you can have a mini orographic effect of enhanced lift. This effect can contribute to additional localized flash flooding. Just something to watch as the storm moves at a crawl.

[Kingarabian]

Uhh... This can't be right
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 SEP 2020 Time : 022016 UTC
Lat : 29:43:11 N Lon : 87:48:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 956.3mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.9 6.0

Something seems off.

Nothing is off. It's a good DVORAK fix. We'll see if the winds catch up to the presentation.

[cheezyWXguy]

Uhh... This can't be right
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 SEP 2020 Time : 022016 UTC
Lat : 29:43:11 N Lon : 87:48:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 956.3mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.9 6.0

Something seems off.

Thankfully

It’s not. The warming eye is causing T numbers to rise