ATL: LAURA - Models

[stormlover2013]

Euro gunning for Freeport or Galveston this run

[USTropics]

950mb at landfall on 06z ECMWF:

[shiny-pebble]

950mb at landfall on 06z ECMWF:

Yikes... 950 for Euro could translate to 940...

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[AerospaceEng]

How well did 06Z Euro initialize Laura?

[USTropics]

How well did 06Z Euro initialize Laura?

Very close to where recon is finding it, right off the southern coast.

[HouTXmetro]

So the UKMET, HMON and Euro are all showing Freeport/Galveston. Did I miss any?

[txag2005]

You have to think the next forecast will shift west and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the NHC up the intensity forecast to a cat 3. Pretty much every big model is showing a major at this point.

[SoupBone]

Yet the HWRF is focused still on SWLA. With a landfall creeping closer, this is still so crazy.

[Nederlander]

Looks like the Euro finally woke up

[NDG]

Another look at the 06z Euro's continuing shift to the west joining the UKMET.
I swear the Euro has been so bipolar lately, definitely not the same model from years ago.

[cycloneye]

Dont forget UKMET that has done a good job.

 https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1297870871101681665

[SoupBone]

Another look at the 06z Euro's continuing shift to the west joining the UKMET.
I swear the Euro has been so bipolar lately, definitely not the same model from years ago.

https://i.imgur.com/IPCkSkE.png

It's why, while I'm concerned, it just has not been performing well, with wild swings for several systems this year. I think the HWRF has a good representation, but damn, you'd think we'd be closer to more of a consensus by now.

[SoupBone]

Dont forget UKMET that has done a good job.

https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1297870871101681665

So has the HWRF and it's focused on the Lake Charles area, at least for now.

[NDG]

Dont forget UKMET that has done a good job.

https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1297870871101681665

Is surely making up from being so bad with previous systems.

[Nederlander]

Another look at the 06z Euro's continuing shift to the west joining the UKMET.
I swear the Euro has been so bipolar lately, definitely not the same model from years ago.

https://i.imgur.com/IPCkSkE.png

It's why, while I'm concerned, it just has not been performing well, with wild swings for several systems this year. I think the HWRF has a good representation, but damn, you'd think we'd be closer to more of a consensus by now.

This is the best consensus we’ve had yet. Evacs will likely start getting called today for SWLA parishes and SETX coastal counties.

[SoupBone]

Another look at the 06z Euro's continuing shift to the west joining the UKMET.
I swear the Euro has been so bipolar lately, definitely not the same model from years ago.

https://i.imgur.com/IPCkSkE.png

It's why, while I'm concerned, it just has not been performing well, with wild swings for several systems this year. I think the HWRF has a good representation, but damn, you'd think we'd be closer to more of a consensus by now.

This is the best consensus we’ve had yet. Evacs will likely start getting called today for SWLA parishes and SETX coastal counties.

I respectfully disagree. They've been playing following the leader for days now, with each run either going more west or going more east. Just yesterday, SELA was still in several of the models. Now I do agree that the focus is somewhere between Cameron Parish and the Texas/Louisiana border. If another set of runs show Galveston, it'll definitely have my attention more than just one set of runs.

[JayTX]

It's why, while I'm concerned, it just has not been performing well, with wild swings for several systems this year. I think the HWRF has a good representation, but damn, you'd think we'd be closer to more of a consensus by now.

This is the best consensus we’ve had yet. Evacs will likely start getting called today for SWLA parishes and SETX coastal counties.

I respectfully disagree. They've been playing following the leader for days now, with each run either going more west or going more east. Just yesterday, SELA was still in several of the models. Now I do agree that the focus is somewhere between Cameron Parish and the Texas/Louisiana border. If another set of runs show Galveston, it'll definitely have my attention more than just one set of runs.

These swings toward Galveston/Houston will cause major issues for making good decisions. I really wish these models would get on the same page and soon. It'll be interesting to see how things shape up once Laura is clear of Cuba.

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1297873987423395840

[galvestontx]

Another look at the 06z Euro's continuing shift to the west joining the UKMET.
I swear the Euro has been so bipolar lately, definitely not the same model from years ago.

https://i.imgur.com/IPCkSkE.png

If that verifies it would be a disaster of epic proportions.

[Frank2]

Right now the GOM and Western Caribbean are dominated by shear - it's all but denuded Marco and Laura is not doing much better, a very large ULL moving west to the north of Laura.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

ULL's are always a wild card when it comes to forecast models.