Looks like a TS to me. As with most systems, timing of the trough and the ridge building will be everything & will ultimately determine the cyclone's track.
One thing to watch for is that it is not uncommon for June systems to stall-out and drift after landfall.
ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139722
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Air force plane is flying towards TD 3. Check the recon thread for the data.
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
BiloxiBeachGuy
- Tropical Wave
- Posts: 9
- Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2016 8:38 am
Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Checking in from Biloxi, MS. Definitely keeping an eye on this. Everyone on the Gulf Coast should be prepared!
1 likes
Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
facemane wrote:Buck wrote:Will be the earliest C-name, but does anyone know the stats on earliest Bay of Campeche and GOM storms?
A google search said if Christobal is named today, it will be the earliest C name in history
Really? Wow. And the previous two storms were both tropical, so it isn't even a matter of the recent change of naming subtropical storms.
2 likes
Eyes: Emily '86, Dean '89, Felix '95, Gert '99, Fabian '03, Humberto '19, Paulette '20
Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Salute!
Get the beer, propane and poptarts early, BBGuy!
Weak ENSO does not bode well for this season in the Gulf. Just speaking from many years of anti-total experience.
Heading to Ace hdwe now. We panhandle folks have seen a few the last 30 years.
Gums sends....
Get the beer, propane and poptarts early, BBGuy!
Weak ENSO does not bode well for this season in the Gulf. Just speaking from many years of anti-total experience.
Heading to Ace hdwe now. We panhandle folks have seen a few the last 30 years.
Gums sends....
4 likes
-
Aric Dunn
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Recon of course showing we have a TS.
2 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Cristobal, welcome to the party.
4 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
Ivanhater
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 10859
- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
- Location: Pensacola
Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
The fantasy land gfs 2 weeks ago was not far off. Specifics, no but sniffed this out
Good job.
Good job.
4 likes
Michael
-
Aric Dunn
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
the center has done a small cyclonic loop. now getting pulled to the ene towards the heavy convection.. radar is starting to really light up.
1 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
It looks like the LLC is a little further south & west than I thought it was going to be found.
0 likes
-
northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Yeah Cristobal has been born. Already the third named cyclone and its only June 2. Amazing and historic occasion indeed!!
1 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
-
Tireman4
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5679
- Age: 58
- Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
I know I keep saying the obvious, but boy we have lots of model runs to go. I think, and just my opinion, until they get a definitive COC, it is still conjecture
1 likes
-
TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Recon found wind shift and lowest pressure near 1005mb near 19.35N 92.65W
Last edited by NDG on Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
Aric Dunn
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
pressure roughly 1005mb at the moment...
as the center gets pulled to the ene to NE into the building deep convection pressure should really start to fall.
as the center gets pulled to the ene to NE into the building deep convection pressure should really start to fall.
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
NHC is dragging on the advisory, probably could go either way based on recon.
Last edited by BobHarlem on Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:00 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes
-
wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22512
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Looks like NHC is using the stalling move Sat/Sun. Our track has it about 300 miles north of NHC's at day 5 (4am CDT advisory). They're not committing to a landfall direction yet. Landfall late Sunday night, possibly SW LA.
2 likes
-
Kazmit
- Category 5
- Posts: 1915
- Age: 21
- Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
- Location: Williamsburg VA for college, Bermuda otherwise
Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Do 40kt+ flight-level winds not support a TS?
0 likes
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests