ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

97L INVEST 200819 1800 14.1N 73.4W ATL 30 1008

...4, 3....

[Frank P]

sure looks like a depression to me or very close to it, hints of inflow from every quadrant on the system per the vis sat loops...

[Aric Dunn]

Me thinky we go 80/80 at 8pm.

Convection starting to increase even more.

[aspen]

I marked up the most recent Western Atlantic SST map from Tropical Tidbits with the likely locations of both 98L and 97L through 96-120 hours. The location I marked for 97L will likely be where it is between 36 and 96 hours out. SSTs are absolutely phenomenal, especially on the eastern edge of the area I marked, but land interaction and a likely landfall in the Yucutan Peninsula will probably contribute to keeping this in check.

[cycloneye]

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97L)

B. 19/1730Z

C. 14.2N

D. 71.9W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...>2/10 BANDING WAS MEASURED AROUND THE LLCC YIELDING A DT
OF 1.0. THE MET AND PT AGREE AND THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MLEVINE

[tailgater]

Wave Train
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2m/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&layer=700-850&prod=natl&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5

[GCANE]

I marked up the most recent Western Atlantic SST map from Tropical Tidbits with the likely locations of both 98L and 97L through 96-120 hours. The location I marked for 97L will likely be where it is between 36 and 96 hours out. SSTs are absolutely phenomenal, especially on the eastern edge of the area I marked, but land interaction and a likely landfall in the Yucutan Peninsula will probably contribute to keeping this in check.
https://i.imgur.com/qOWpiub.png

I remember seeing a few low-grade TC's either go across the Yucatan unscathed or even strengthen a bit.
I think it depends of the structure of the warm-core.
If the cold pocket under the warm-core is displaced and over water, then the air parcels still take advantage of maximum updraft.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

At 1800 UTC, 19 August 2020, LOW INVEST 97 (AL97) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 14.1°N and 73.4°W. The current intensity was 30 kt and the center was moving at 16 kt at a bearing of 280 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb.

[GCANE]

Wave Train
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2m/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&layer=700-850&prod=natl&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5

Looks like its just about to get a shot of heavy-duty juice from the EPAC.

[GCANE]

Naked swirl on the coast just popped its cork.
A good sign high TPW air is coming into the area.

[GCANE]

Naked swirl on the coast just popped its cork.
A good sign high TPW air is coming into the area.

That is some heavy-duty juice, extreme rain-rate with that burst over the swirl.

[Buck]

Wow those are some cold cloud tops already and its only got warmer water in its path.

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1296177588440911878

[Frank P]

Sure looks to me like it’s starting to gain a little latitude as it moves thru the Caribbean

[wx98]

Sure looks to me like it’s starting to gain a little latitude as it moves thru the Caribbean

Definitely a WNW to NW motion moving generally toward Cancún.

[tailgater]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1296177588440911878?s=20

I guess I need to go microwave reading school I would have thought that Sw inflow was pretty decent, Nw maybe questionable, looks a little elliptical shaped to me.

[Aric Dunn]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1296177588440911878?s=20

I guess I need to go microwave reading school I would have thought that Sw inflow was pretty decent, Nw maybe questionable, looks a little elliptical shaped to me.

there is SW inflow...

question is what level..

[GCANE]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1296177588440911878?s=20

I guess I need to go microwave reading school I would have thought that Sw inflow was pretty decent, Nw maybe questionable, looks a little elliptical shaped to me.

For a developing TD, I am not expecting this to have a closed eyewall.

Those cells are pretty hot pink though.

[captainbarbossa19]

I saw a north wind reported earlier at Kingston Intl. Northeast winds are currently being reported at Montego Bay.

[GCANE]

That outflow from Genevieve is like a fire hose aimed into the GoM.
Crashing into the west Yucatan and creating a sh.tstorm.
West Cuba firing up as well.
Flowing into the W Carib.