ATL: MARCO - Models

[CYCLONE MIKE]

HMON with the 150 mile west shift from Mobile Bay to Grand Isle with Landfall Monday at 1pm. Looks like a North/NE weighted depiction and weakening coming in. Maybe more shifts west are in store?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2018&fh=96

Good signs for now that these models have 14 weakening on approach to northern gulf coast. Won't hang my hat on it yet but if the system emerges out of the Caribbean and there's no core this is probably what you're gonna get.

Doesn’t surprise me at all. Most systems that hit our area are almost always in a weakening stage. Now south Texas and Mexico is another story.

[Steve]

The late cycle tracks for 18z at UNC doesn't have as many runs but definitely shifted toward SE TX from the early cycle 18z guidance. Not that it's a big deal or that you can rely on it, but it's something to look at waiting for the next runs. I can't link photos at the moment, but here is the link to ucar.edu

Early Cycle Guidance 18z
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime ... _early.png

Late Cycle Guidance 18z
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime ... k_late.png

[Steve]

NAM 12km 84 hours prefers TD #13 like HMON, HWRF and I think the CMC. It has a loose #14 NW of the Yucatan at 1007 and TD #13 @ 992 moving along the north coast of Cuba
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2018&fh=84

[Nederlander]

NHC now going with 65 kts. at landfall near Bolivar, but cone stretches from Baffin Bay to Morgan City.

[HouTXmetro]

Oh boy, let's hope the intensity forecast is correct or weaker. If not, a strong cane tracking through Galveston Bay into the Houston Metro

[Nederlander]

GFS running - keeps 14 offshore of Honduras but minimal strengthening through 48 hours and sitting on top of Cozumel. Ready to cross the tip of the Yucatán. Seems like less land interaction on this run.

Edit: GFS a tick east through 90 hr

Landfall in Cameron Parish, south of Lake Charles as a weak TS.

[Nederlander]

Meanwhile 0z ICON has a fujiwhara effect with 13 right off the upper TX coast and CMC is still imbibing at extended happy hour.

[bohai]

Oh boy, let's hope the intensity forecast is correct or weaker. If not, a strong cane tracking through Galveston Bay into the Houston Metro

After living thru Allison and Harvey, weakening tropical cyclones don't necessarily give me the warm and fuzzies.

[Steve]

Thanks Nederlander. I'd been away from the pc for a bit. GFS is taking the opposite side of the ICON 00z run and the 18z HRWF/HMON and 12z CMC by emphasizing TD 14.

ICON - 14 crosses the Yucatan, weakens, moves toward the TX Coast but stalls out as TD #13 comes up toward Hancock County, MS as probably a strong TS or a 1. #14 gets sucked in behind it from the SW through Lake Charles. Strange run.

GFS - Landfalls 14 in Vermilion Parish as a 1001 (probably mid-grade TS) and doesn't do much with #13 which it barely shows south of Panama City or so. Much different idea than ICON.

CMC - nothing with 14, 13 comes up as a Cat-2 toward Destin.

Hurricane models should be out in a bit.

[Steve]

hwrf is going long for Cat-2 before any potential landfall in Cozumel. Low 970's cause problems.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2100&fh=39

[South Texas Storms]

Yep 0z hurricane models are coming in much stronger with this over the next few days. This storm is gonna make me pull my hair out with how little model agreement there is...if not this one then TD 13

[Steve]

HMON with the 968mb low heading for the NW Gulf. As soon as the 14's and 13's landfall, I'll post them then I'm going to bed.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2100&fh=90

[captainbarbossa19]

The HWRF simulated satellite is very similar to what is going on now with 14. Look at hour 6 and then compare to the current IR satellite.

[Steve]

The HWRF simulated satellite is very similar to what is going on now with 14. Look at hour 6 and then compare to the current IR satellite.

The thing with the HWRF vs. the rest of the models is that it actually likes both systems fairly equally so far in the 00z run. It's either realistic and no other model is on it yet, or it's fantasy for one or both.

[Steve]

HMON - Landfall for TD #14 as Cat 2 around Pecan Island, LA 7pm Monday night.

[SoupBone]

Since in many cases we know a stronger system moves poleward, how far east are the models forecasting the high pressure to be? Seems like a key point in the very wide cone.

[Steve]

HMON #13 which it butchers it across the big islands. HMON now joins the GFS with TD #14 being the stronger low (vs. CMC, ICON so far).

[Steve]

Since I'm many cases we know a stronger system moves poleward, how far east are the models forecasting the high pressure to be? Seems like a key point in the very wide cone.

IDK. You'd have to look at 500mb over MSLP (upper dynamics). I didn't have time to check those tonight, but all TT global models have that option. Usually I'm all over that, but with the two storms and waiting on the MSLP runs along with being exhausted, I haven't even looked at the 500mb since early afternoon.

[SoupBone]

Since I'm many cases we know a stronger system moves poleward, how far east are the models forecasting the high pressure to be? Seems like a key point in the very wide cone.

IDK. You'd have to look at 500mb over MSLP (upper dynamics). I didn't have time to check those tonight, but all TT global models have that option. Usually I'm all over that, but with the two storms and waiting on the MSLP runs along with being exhausted, I haven't even looked at the 500mb since early afternoon.

This Euro will be interesting seeing the GFS and HMON showing Louisiana.

[Steve]

HWRF with the strong Cat 2 hit around Grand Isle Monday around 10:00am. This is a shift west from Mobile. As noted with the 18z's, will it shift west more?