ATL: LAURA - Models

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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#321 Postby toad strangler » Tue Aug 18, 2020 12:09 pm

AdamFirst wrote:Why does the GFS stunt development on this?


Slamming head first into the GA's directly from the EAST for one if you believe the 12z OP will verify.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#322 Postby sma10 » Tue Aug 18, 2020 12:11 pm

SFLcane wrote:CMC 12z... SFL northern quadrant of possibly a Cat 2.


Probably goes without saying, but specifics of strength from the globals are irrelevant, especially 6 days out.

970 mb on a global should be more than enough to grab your attention
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#323 Postby lsuhurricane » Tue Aug 18, 2020 12:11 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#324 Postby BlowHard » Tue Aug 18, 2020 12:17 pm

We really need to recruit some more Caribbean folks into this forum. Florida, Florida, Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#325 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 18, 2020 12:24 pm

BlowHard wrote:We really need to recruit some more Caribbean folks into this forum. Florida, Florida, Florida.


It's a numbers thing, 21 million in FL and 3 million in PR... That's it...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#326 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 18, 2020 12:25 pm

it is interesting the 2 dynamical models.. HWRF and HMON for the 12z are almost identical again..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#327 Postby toad strangler » Tue Aug 18, 2020 12:30 pm

Blown Away wrote:
BlowHard wrote:We really need to recruit some more Caribbean folks into this forum. Florida, Florida, Florida.


It's a numbers thing, 21 million in FL and 3 million in PR... That's it...


Florida is the 3rd most populated state in the United States.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#328 Postby plasticup » Tue Aug 18, 2020 12:37 pm

Blown Away wrote:
BlowHard wrote:We really need to recruit some more Caribbean folks into this forum. Florida, Florida, Florida.


It's a numbers thing, 21 million in FL and 3 million in PR... That's it...


Reducing the Caribbean to PR is a great example of the bias we need to correct.

I feel it every time people celebrate a "recurve out to sea" but it's actually tracking over my house.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#329 Postby toad strangler » Tue Aug 18, 2020 12:46 pm

12z GEFS much more aggressive than the OP. Most are FL hits with a sizable re-curve group as well. Most of these skirt just to the N of the GA's
Last edited by toad strangler on Tue Aug 18, 2020 12:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#330 Postby WxEp » Tue Aug 18, 2020 12:50 pm

12z GEFS quite busy and almost all north of the operational track.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#331 Postby chris_fit » Tue Aug 18, 2020 12:51 pm

toad strangler wrote:12z GEFS much more aggressive than the OP. Most are FL hits with a sizable re-curve group as well. Most of these skirt just to the N of the GA's


Indeed they appears to be...

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#332 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 18, 2020 12:53 pm

12z Euro is running... Make way for the King!!! :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#333 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 18, 2020 12:54 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#334 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 18, 2020 12:59 pm

Just a tad slower than 06z but STRONGER...

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#335 Postby chris_fit » Tue Aug 18, 2020 1:01 pm

EURO weak through 48 hours, just a wave.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#336 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Aug 18, 2020 1:01 pm

HWRF doesn't show TC genesis until about 40 hours, which is very believable.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#337 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 18, 2020 1:04 pm

Full 12z run of HWRF

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#338 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 18, 2020 1:06 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:HWRF doesn't show TC genesis until about 40 hours, which is very believable.


You need to look at HI res euro. to see the interaction with the multiple vortices. it explains all. conditions are still good. just takes a lot of time to bring everything together.

but looks like it wants to swing more towards the HWRF/HMON dynamics .. with a third vort down in the ITCZ to the wsw of the 98L

or some mixture of the two solutions.

Image
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Tue Aug 18, 2020 1:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#339 Postby chris_fit » Tue Aug 18, 2020 1:07 pm

EURO still not impressed @ 72 hours

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#340 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 18, 2020 1:08 pm

Poof on the Euro! :lol:
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