ATL: NANA - Remnants - Discussion

[Highteeld]

[HurricaneEnzo]

Whether it be because of missing flight data or 'upgrades' that need to be reverted it definitely seems like the models have take a significant step back this season. I tend to lean towards the former and not the latter. I will say these 'micro' storms like Nana have proven difficult to get a handle on in the past as well though.

[CrazyC83]

Next Recon is this evening?

[eastcoastFL]

Nana intensity

[Extratropical94]

Next Recon is this evening?

Yup, scheduled to depart at 3:30pm EDT

[Highteeld]

Nana intensity

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/16L_intensity_latest.png

I'm looking forward to 18z guidance with the input of an eyewall and TS winds.

[tropicwatch]

Recon already headed to the hacienda.

[cheezyWXguy]

Needs to refire some convection over the center is it’s going to keep strengthening like this. Cloud tops seem to be warming

[Aric Dunn]

Needs to refire some convection over the center is it’s going to keep strengthening like this. Cloud tops seem to be warming

normal process.

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF/HMON were dead on two days ago.

but being they were fed with incorrect ASCAT and other data they lost it.

[aspen]

Needs to refire some convection over the center is it’s going to keep strengthening like this. Cloud tops seem to be warming

It is dmin right now. It’ll probably start firing more once it hits Dmax.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

New VDM now shows the eye as closed.

F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 6 nautical miles

[cheezyWXguy]

Needs to refire some convection over the center is it’s going to keep strengthening like this. Cloud tops seem to be warming

It is dmin right now. It’ll probably start firing more once it hits Dmax.

Agreed, I think DMAX will be pretty generous to it tonight, I am just thinking it will probably level off for a bit until then. Hurricane seems like a lock at this point and I believe cat2 by landfall isn’t very far fetched if it capitalizes on DMAX tonight.

[ScottNAtlanta]

New VDM now shows the eye as closed.

F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 6 nautical miles

That is significant...it should start to really take off now. That is really small even for a small storm

[plasticup]

Earliest 14th named storm ever, beating 2005's Hurricane Nate by 4 days.

[CrazyC83]

New VDM now shows the eye as closed.

F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 6 nautical miles

That is significant...it should start to really take off now. That is really small even for a small storm

I think the next Recon flight may find a hurricane at this rate.

[chaser1]

New VDM now shows the eye as closed.

F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 6 nautical miles

That is significant...it should start to really take off now. That is really small even for a small storm

For sure! Six mile wide eye? That could potentially deepen like a boss!

[CrazyC83]

New VDM now shows the eye as closed.

That is significant...it should start to really take off now. That is really small even for a small storm

For sure! Six mile wide eye? That could potentially deepen like a boss!

That's what I call the dreaded pinhole eye!

[CyclonicFury]

Hard to believe there's a closed eye already. Nana still seems to be dealing with some easterly shear (which is rather unusual in the Caribbean) since the center is on the eastern edge of the convection, but once this shear relaxes, we could see some more pronounced intensification.

[GCANE]

63 mm/hr rain rate.
Theta-e rapidly deepening to 382.
Should explode around sunset or later in evening.