ATL: PAULETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[us89]

This is definitely a heck of a lot more than 75 knots:

https://i.imgur.com/c65fhX6.jpg

I am expecting a big upgrade at 5pm

Nope, still 75 kt. Recon is on its way and could find a much stronger storm. I’m betting Paulette is in the high 960s by now.

75 kt intensity right now is based on T4.5 Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Should note that the raw estimate from CIMMS ADT is T5.1 right now.

[Nimbus]

Looking very good.

https://i.imgur.com/4IclSgY.png

I was following a hot tower around the eyewall and it return a little further east from where I expected.
An early NNW turn might put Bermuda on the weak side of the storm and given the forward motion.
Wobble watching.

[plasticup]

This is definitely a heck of a lot more than 75 knots:

https://i.imgur.com/c65fhX6.jpg

I am expecting a big upgrade at 5pm

Nope, still 75 kt. Recon is on its way and could find a much stronger storm. I’m betting Paulette is in the high 960s by now.

I suspect the NHC is wrong on this one.

[SconnieCane]

I am going to commit a no-no, but I feel like this is one of the few situations where it is justified. Given the large eye, environment, and location it is in, I believe there is a chance Paulette COULD go annular, if it strengthens enough. Isn’t right now though.

Well, unlike a lot of times the word is tossed out there, Paulette actually DOES have the conditions for an annular hurricane. People like to wrongly apply it to any impressive-looking, symmetrical major hurricane when in fact it describes a very specific type that only occurs under certain conditions.

[TheStormExpert]

Paulette looks to be at least a 90mph Cat.2 in my opinion.

[aspen]

A hot tower is firing in the NE eyewall as the Sun goes down. The start of deeper convection via Dmax?

[us89]

Paulette looks to be at least a 90mph Cat.2 in my opinion.

90 kt, I assume? 90 mph is still cat 1 range.

[AveryTheComrade]

Paulette looks to be at least a 90mph Cat.2 in my opinion.

C2 starts at 96mph

[plasticup]

This is the most impressive Category 1 storm I have ever seen

[alan1961]

Not looking good for Bermuda..stay safe everyone.

[TheStormExpert]

Paulette looks to be at least a 90mph Cat.2 in my opinion.

90 kt, I assume? 90 mph is still cat 1 range.

Oops!

I meant to say 100mph.

[EquusStorm]

Looking quite impressive today. Went from an elongated system to a very symmetrical hurricane with an eye overnight. Hopefully shifts a bit in the cone to spare Bermuda the eyewall.

[plasticup]

Saved images from Bermuda radar

[plasticup]

Last visible of "category 1" Hurricane Paulette

[Buck]

Really come a long way since this morning... beautiful shape and has become a lot more dense.

[aspen]

Still has barely intensified. Recon found an extrapolated pressure of 975 mbar.

[Kazmit]

Large broad TCs are slower in intensifying so I'm not too surprised it's still a C1.

[ClarCari]

Recon just started and 975 is higher than previous advisory so I find it hard to believe it weakened. I don’t exactly expect a Cat.3 yet tho.

[TheStormExpert]

Still has barely intensified. Recon found an extrapolated pressure of 975 mbar.

975mb in a Cat.1 hurricane?

[aspen]

I think occasionally dry air intrusions are helping prevent this from going crazy, alongside the broad circulation. The eyewall was eroded to the north last time I checked microwave imagery.