ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

Looks a million times better than Isaias did in this same area early last month.

[xironman]

Easy to see the west winds in the keys.

[NDG]

I was just thinking that due to the current light northerly shear, the LLC could track further south across SE FL than forecasted, could come across southern Dade County instead of the northern section of the county, which means that from Miami to Broward could see some nice TS force winds late tonight into tomorrow morning, IMO.

Time to take a nap, is going to be a long fun night tracking it before making landfall around 3-5 AM.

[Do_For_Love]

A little unnerving how quickly 19 willed itself into existence against expectations, lol. What were the 48 hour odds this morning, like 10%?

[Evil Jeremy]

Well that uh, escalated fast. We're in the running for the September named storm record at this pace; this will be five, the African wave will be six, and the record is eight... and it's just the 11th.

Also, unless there's previously been five simulatenously active storms in the Atlantic (I know multiple occasions of four storms, but can't recall five. Someone please let me know if this previously occurred), that's a record to keep an eye on, what with the two storms expected to form off of Africa...

[TheStormExpert]

Flood Watch for SE Florida from Palm Beach County through Miami-Dade County through Sunday at 8am.

[Frank P]

TD 19, but mark my words this will be a storm tonight while it makes landfall in SE FL.

https://i.imgur.com/l7OiFBp.gif

Yeah agreed. I mentioned earlier it would likley be a TS by 11 or 2.

It’s looked like a TD all late afternoon... sometimes eyeball analysis on studying vis sat loops pays off...

[Evil Jeremy]

A little unnerving how quickly 19 willed itself into existence against expectations, lol. What were the 48 hour odds this morning, like 10%?

10% at 2am, 40% at 8am.

[Dean4Storms]

If there's any good news, it's that this will have less time to strengthen over water than Katrina did. Katrina had about five days between its upgrade to a TS and its landfall on Louisiana. Future Sally won't have more than four.

But remember Katrina reached Cat 5 status over the central Gulf, she weakened coming into Landfall.

[chaser1]

Well that uh, escalated fast. We're in the running for the September named storm record at this pace; this will be five, the African wave will be six, and the record is eight... and it's just the 11th.

I think this September will trash that record. To really put that into perspective, this September alone will likely end up busier than a fair number of past year entire seasons.

[Nimbus]

12Z HWRF shifted track south a little to exit west Florida coast near Sanibel island.
Could be an indication of model uncertainty similar to the asymptotic track fork for 95L.
Aric explained that would resolve at 72 hours.

[caneseddy]

So it’s roughly 8-10 hrs before it moves into onshore care to share intensity?

I say 50 mph.

50 mph.. if it had a bit more time (say 24 more hours) we could have had a hurricane instead

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[Dean4Storms]

Track into the Northern Gulf Coast is going to be determined by how much the SE Ridge erodes from the Trough in the Plains and how intense TD19 becomes. More Ridge erosion along with deepening rapidly and lookout FL Panhandle and of course more westward if that Ridge remains stout and the Trough doesn't erode it as much, then lookout LA/MS/AL

[CrazyC83]

Track into the Northern Gulf Coast is going to be determined by how much the SE Ridge erodes from the Trough in the Plains and how intense TD19 becomes. More Ridge erosion along with deepening rapidly and lookout FL Panhandle and of course more westward if that Ridge remains stout and the Trough doesn't erode it as much, then lookout LA/MS/AL

Even Texas isn't out of play. The ridge should be stout over the South for much of the week next week. It probably has until Sunday to make the connection.

[aspen]

Well that uh, escalated fast. We're in the running for the September named storm record at this pace; this will be five, the African wave will be six, and the record is eight... and it's just the 11th.

Those forecasts for an active September are absolutely verifying. However, which month will Omar be counted in? It formed late on August 31st and wasn’t named until September 1st; because of that, I consider it a September system, but it technically belongs in August.

All of this technicality will likely mean the difference between breaking, matching, or ending up below that record of 8 named storms in September.

[Sanibel]

Little bursting devil...

Heavy rain and lightning here...

[DestinHurricane]

Track into the Northern Gulf Coast is going to be determined by how much the SE Ridge erodes from the Trough in the Plains and how intense TD19 becomes. More Ridge erosion along with deepening rapidly and lookout FL Panhandle and of course more westward if that Ridge remains stout and the Trough doesn't erode it as much, then lookout LA/MS/AL

Even Texas isn't out of play. The ridge should be stout over the South for much of the week next week. It probably has until Sunday to make the connection.

Crazy do you think a stronger sally will go more north? Into panhandle perhaps?

[toad strangler]

A little unnerving how quickly 19 willed itself into existence against expectations, lol. What were the 48 hour odds this morning, like 10%?

One day past climatological peak. Not surprising.

[GCANE]

Good chance this will get real hairy Sunday afternoon.
That's when the Anticyclone Rossby Wave Break gels.
Troposphere will be saturated from the water to the tropopause.
Basically no shear and good CAPE.

[sunnyday]

What time tonight should it make its approach in So Fla? Someone have an educated guess? Much appreciated.