WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[ElectricStorm]

WP, 22, 2020103006, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1316E, 150, 911, ST,

Preliminarily the strongest storm of 2020, beating out Amphan and Harold.

There it is! JTWC comes through finally! Alright Goni you got there... you can calm down now, ya got land coming up...

[Hayabusa]

[mrbagyo]

WP, 22, 2020103006, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1316E, 150, 911, ST,

Preliminarily the strongest storm of 2020, beating out Amphan and Harold.

Within 24 hours :

Wind has gone up from 70 to 150 knots -
while pressure plummeted from 982 to 911mb
It also lost half a degree of latitude.

[mrbagyo]

 https://twitter.com/PhilippineStar/status/1322074860126826496

[dexterlabio]

Here comes the dreaded SW dive
https://i.imgur.com/tFdYjXh.gif

What an eye
https://i.imgur.com/8a0uV1Z.gif

Truly dreaded.. Northern Luzon is used to these kinds of monsters.. but the capital, not at all

Agree, it's been a long while since Manila experienced a direct hit/strike from a significant typhoon..

1. GLENDA (KOMPASU) 2014
2. BASYANG (CONSON) 2010
3. FRANK (FENGSHEN) 2008
4. MILENYO (XANGSANE) 2006
5. ROSING (ANGELA) 1995

Do we have other typhoons in mind?



Sent from my SM-N986B using Tapatalk

I remember in 2000 there were 2 consecutive typhoons that struck Manila in just a span of 6 days. In terms of PAGASA's naming, they were the R and S storms.

[mrbagyo]

Truly dreaded.. Northern Luzon is used to these kinds of monsters.. but the capital, not at all

Agree, it's been a long while since Manila experienced a direct hit/strike from a significant typhoon..

1. GLENDA (KOMPASU) 2014
2. BASYANG (CONSON) 2010
3. FRANK (FENGSHEN) 2008
4. MILENYO (XANGSANE) 2006
5. ROSING (ANGELA) 1995

Do we have other typhoons in mind?



Sent from my SM-N986B using Tapatalk

I remember in 2000 there were 2 consecutive typhoons that struck Manila in just a span of 6 days. In terms of PAGASA's naming, they were the R and S storms.

Reming and Seniang if I remember correctly
Reming - Xangsane
Seniang - Bebinca

I was grade 2 at the time and classes were cancelled in Cavite.

[ManilaTC]

Yoling (Patsy) in 1970. Also November 2.

[mrbagyo]

Yoling (Patsy) in 1970. Also November 2.

It's Manila's GOAT storm in terms of Wind.
200 kph recorded at RPLL

[euro6208]

Goni, strongest TC in the world this year...

[Hayabusa]

Diurnal max is coming, let's see if that could make Goni intensify even more, like having a full CDG ring.

WDPN31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI) WARNING NR
010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 621 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
VERY IMPRESSIVE, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A SHARP 9 NM EYE, WHICH HAS
CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 9 NM EYE IN THE
MSI, WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM A 300438Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWING VERY INTENSE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE VERY COMPACT
CORE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AT 150 KNOTS
BASED ON A PGTW SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T7.5 (155
KNOTS), AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T6.8 (138 KNOTS), THOUGH THE RAW ADT ESTIMATE ALIGNS
WITH THE PGTW ESTIMATE AT T7.5. STY 22W IS TRACKING GENERALLY A BIT
SOUTH OF DUE WESTWARD, ALBEIT WITH SOME RECENT TROCHOIDAL MOTION
ABOUT THE TRACK MADE GOOD, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-
LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.
STY GONI CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH VERY WARM (30-31 DEG CELSIUS), HIGH OHC WATERS, LOW (5-10
KNOTS) VWS AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH AN ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL TAPPING INTO THE DIVERGENT QUADRANT OF A UPPER-LEVEL
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, STY 22W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING
ON A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
BUILDS AND EXTENDS WESTWARD AND BECOMES THE DOMINATE STEERING
MECHANISM. BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48 THE SYSTEM RESUMES A WESTERLY
TRACK BEFORE TURNING WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER TAU 48. LANDFALL IS
EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL LUZON AROUND TAU 60 AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE. STY 22W HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY, THOUGH THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK BETWEEN TAU 0 AND TAU 12. BUT
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY INTENSITY AT TAU 12, WITH
WEAKENING THEREAFTER, DUE TO THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF A EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LIKELY ERC
WILL COMBINE WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN VWS AND LOSS OF THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL AFTER TAU 24 TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 125 KNOTS BY
TAU 48. AFTER LANDFALL THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSIT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CENTRAL LUZON, REEMERGING INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA AS A MINIMAL TYPHOON OF 65 KNOTS AFTER WEAKENING
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF TERRAIN INTERACTION,
INCREASED VWS AND ENTRAINMENT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES ALONG THE NORTH EDGE OF THE
VERY TIGHT GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 48 HIGH CONFIDENCE.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO THE WESTWARD IN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD WEST-EAST ORIENTED STR TO THE
NORTH. COOLER WATERS, ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND MODERATE VWS WILL COMBINE TO STEADILY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THOUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 200 NM AT TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR JUST NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[TorSkk]

Extremely impressive... easily 160 kt+. Very round CDO

[rileydoxsee98]

Ahhh... Goni... very very impressive. This is a small and compact but extremely powerful storm. As others in the thread before me have mentioned it’s also like a mini Nepartak. Although I do think this is stronger than the JTWC estimate, I don’t think by much. Id personally bargain with 155-160kt. Though, a storm like this could easily be higher. Unfortunately we’ll never know. Given the conditions, it’s not surprising to me this occurred, but it’s still very impressive and amazing to watch every single time.

[euro6208]

Just imagine waiting for the recon data to come in. Very tight pressure gradient. Dropsonde in the compact typhoon's 9 nm eye records sub 900 mb and flight level winds and SFMR supporting at least 160 knots. Personally it's probably in the range of 165 to 175 knots.

[Hayabusa]

Officially stronger than Haishen in winds

TY 2019 (Goni)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 30 October 2020

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 30 October>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N16°10' (16.2°)
E131°10' (131.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 930 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 95 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 21 UTC, 30 October>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N15°40' (15.7°)
E129°10' (129.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (110 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80 m/s (155 kt)
Radius of probability circle 65 km (35 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 175 km (95 NM)

<Forecast for 09 UTC, 31 October>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N15°05' (15.1°)
E127°05' (127.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (110 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80 m/s (155 kt)
Radius of probability circle 95 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 200 km (110 NM)

[Hayabusa]

06Z is even more south. Probably because Goni is being steered by the more potent upper level STR that corresponds to Goni's intensity

[aspen]

150 kt! Wow, the JTWC actually has a good estimate for once. If this gets deeper convection, it’ll be an easy 155-160 kt.

[tatlopuyo]

Wow latest gfs run have this hitting us directly in cavite then another storm hitting northern luzon 2 days later.

[Hayabusa]

[aspen]

Goni is getting closer and closer to a full CDG ring. It’s probably worthy of 155-160 kt (T#7.5-7.7) by now.

[doomhaMwx]

BIG southward shift on the 06Z HWRF.