ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

[EquusStorm]

There isn't much of a positive here, a track further south would probably keep it 'only' a major briefly but plow into and flood areas devastated by Eta, and a track further north could be even stronger for whoever gets hit. Climo shows no major hurricane, or even hurricane at all, that far northwest in the Caribbean this late in the year.

Just step back and think for a moment, we're talking about Hurricane Iota, the second major hurricane of November, affecting areas devastated by 130kt November Hurricane Eta. I know this season has normalized a lot of crazy crap, but we're getting major hurricanes past where we've ever gotten in the Greek list in any previous season... in the Caribbean... in November... heading west under August-like ridging.

[CrazyC83]

There isn't much of a positive here, a track further south would probably keep it 'only' a major briefly but plow into and flood areas devastated by Eta, and a track further north could be even stronger for whoever gets hit. Climo shows no major hurricane, or even hurricane at all, that far northwest in the Caribbean this late in the year.

Just step back and think for a moment, we're talking about Hurricane Iota, the second major hurricane of November, affecting areas devastated by 130kt November Hurricane Eta. I know this season has normalized a lot of crazy crap, but we're getting major hurricanes past where we've ever gotten in the Greek list in any previous season... in the Caribbean... in November... heading west under August-like ridging.

There has never been a single November with two major hurricanes before. Nor have there ever been four major hurricanes in October-November before.

[kevin]

There isn't much of a positive here, a track further south would probably keep it 'only' a major briefly but plow into and flood areas devastated by Eta, and a track further north could be even stronger for whoever gets hit. Climo shows no major hurricane, or even hurricane at all, that far northwest in the Caribbean this late in the year.

Just step back and think for a moment, we're talking about Hurricane Iota, the second major hurricane of November, affecting areas devastated by 130kt November Hurricane Eta. I know this season has normalized a lot of crazy crap, but we're getting major hurricanes past where we've ever gotten in the Greek list in any previous season... in the Caribbean... in November... heading west under August-like ridging.

Imagine if 2021 becomes an average or below average season, it's gonna feel so weird. This season has really normalized the idea that it's 'normal' to have 1 or 2 new storms every week. If I'm being honest I wasn't even that surprised or shocked when I saw the crazy Iota runs starting to appear in the models. And that's not because this is a normal situation, it's everything but normal. But this season has just been so ridiculous that I almost feel desensitized to new information at this point.

[gfsperpendicular]

Eta and Iota from this November could ruin expectations for future Novembers just like Dennis and Emily did for July.

[aspen]

Looks like the models are honing in on the Nicaragua-Honduras border, further south from the previous consensus due to the southward center shift. The CMC and the HWRF are the only two that have actually shifted north. A more southern track will mean less time over water, but that water is up to 29.5C with MPIs of <900 mbar, and Iota will be heading right for Eta Ground Zero.

[Iceresistance]

This feature has been there for hours, I'm still thinking it's not an eye feature.

[lrak]

Not been keeping up with the weather lately and reading all this is terrible.

[Iceresistance]

How is the cool pool? And is Iota stacked?

[Do_For_Love]

Yeah I mean I just wanna chime in as well and say that what's happening here is incredible. I mean we will see how Iota develops but the fact we might be looking at another November major is really remarkable. 2020 might be the GOAT late season.

[beachnut]

It may a GOAT but let's hope it's not also a MOAB, since we're using acronyms Sure hate to see Honduras or the Bay Islands get devastated like Mitch. Been to Roatan several times and Belize. A co-worker owns property there. But the rain and mudslides and loss of life, it would be very sad.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Tropical Storm Iota

30-12-5

For reference, the 2020 season is more active than most WPAC seasons.

https://i.imgur.com/W333MqK.jpg

Only if you only look at named storms. 2020 is well behind an average NW Pacific season in terms of hurricanes, intense hurricanes, and ACE, which tells you something about just how active the NW Pacific basin is.

Very true.

[Iceresistance]

Iota has not moved in the last 30 frames

[cycloneye]

No change.

31L IOTA 201114 0000 13.7N 74.1W ATL 35 1006

[Iceresistance]

Very long loop of Iota to show how much it moved if at all

[aspen]

Very long loop of Iota to show how much it moved if at all

https://s8.gifyu.com/images/Iota-is-not-moving.gif

Wow, 8 hours and practically no movement. I think this might be due to the MLC and LLC trying to stack. This temporary stalling could delay landfall by some amount.

[galaxy401]

Yeah I noticed in the loops that Iota has barely moved at all. Wonder if that will have track ramifications or not.

[Iceresistance]

Very long loop of Iota to show how much it moved if at all

https://s8.gifyu.com/images/Iota-is-not-moving.gif

Wow, 8 hours and practically no movement. I think this might be due to the MLC and LLC trying to stack. This temporary stalling could delay landfall by some amount.

And make it stronger

[Iceresistance]

Yeah I noticed in the loops that Iota has barely moved at all. Wonder if that will have track ramifications or not.

Very likely in the 9 PM adivsory

[Ptarmigan]

Eta and Iota from this November could ruin expectations for future Novembers just like Dennis and Emily did for July.

July 2005 and November 2020 are anomalies.

[Iceresistance]

NHC:

Iota: I have other ideas

Me: Just like Eta, Iota will defy forecasters in very strange ways.