ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ThetaE]

Looks to me like Recon missed the exact center to the SE. winds never quite got down. Also explains the “weak NE quadrant,” since it’s more like the plane sampled the “ENE quadrant.”

[HurricaneFrances04]

Could it be winds haven't caught up yet, although wouldn't we see higher FL winds?

[Jr0d]

In regards to dry air:
With the recent strengthening it is pretty sure to develop a strong CDO/core and circulation envelope which could very likely wall off the remaining dry air to the north and west. If this does happen we could have one hell of a strong hurricane. Looks like a dangerous situation developing now, especially for the Bahamas in the near term.

Still no evacuation orders for Florida. Really hoping Isaiacs behaves and we do not have a bad situation tomorrow.

[Michele B]

I'm going boynton beach

I'll throw down. Hobe Sound

I’ll go with Hutchison Island since it is a known hurricane magnet (Frances and Jeanne)

Fun fact - or urban MYTH:

Vero Beach is thusly named because hurricanes seem to VEER away from it!

Probably just urban myth....but fun to know nonetheless.

[eastcoastFL]

Uh, what?

Check out the raw data NDG posted. The last set of numbers you see (e.g. 05) indicates suspect SFMR data.

No, what do you mean by bust? Isaias is still a hurricane

He means the data is a Bust

[FLpanhandle91]

Looks to me like Recon missed the exact center to the SE. winds never quite got down. Also explains the “weak NE quadrant,” since it’s more like the plane sampled the “ENE quadrant.”

Yeah they missed I think. That would explain that lowest pressure value being a full .4° east and .2° south of the NHC's center location as of 1700EDT.

[eastcoastFL]

I doubt its related but we finally have a nice little cool breeze in palm city

[KWT]

Pressure dropping away combined with what looks like a nearly complete core suggests that Isaias is definitely in a strengthening mode right now. How deep it goes over the next 24hrs is the real question, though of course there is dry air and shear risk is always there as the upper ridge starts to erode.

[eastcoastFL]

In regards to dry air:
With the recent strengthening it is pretty sure to develop a strong CDO/core and circulation envelope which could very likely wall off the remaining dry air to the north and west. If this does happen we could have one hell of a strong hurricane. Looks like a dangerous situation developing now, especially for the Bahamas in the near term.

Still no evacuation orders for Florida. Really hoping Isaiacs behaves and we do not have a bad situation tomorrow.

With Florida being the worst place on earth for Covid right now they probably dont want shelters open unless its an absolute necessity.

[Sanibel]

Cuba could keep the worst at bay...

[chaser1]

I'm amazed that no one, especially Stacy who is the best of the best, has mentioned all of the dry air just to the west and northwest of Isaias. That is a BIG impediment to strengthening if not a cause for weakening pretty soon,

https://i.imgur.com/lrQIzNx.jpg

I was thinking about that. Been seeing all those west semi-circle low cirrus arc clouds all day. Would seem to imply pretty salty conditions to the west of the storm. Isaias is essentially a moving CDO, lacking any semblance of banding feature on it's western side. As I see it, as long as this tight inner core can continue to pump out convection overhead, then it'll at least protect itself from any (or much) SAL intrusion. Here lies its biggest obstacle for it to expand it's inner core though. Furthermore, I see this hurricane particularly fragile. If sufficient convection were to cease or be sufficiently sheared given the less robust west side outflow necessary to help moisten and warm the upper layers, this small storm could spin down just as fast as it could deepen.

[Vdogg]

Cuba could keep the worst at bay...

How? It's pulling away from Cuba at a fairly brisk pace, outflow is improving as a result.

[FLpanhandle91]

Pretty easy to see an eye trying to clear on IR now.

[aspen]

How high is the elevation of Andros Island? If Isaias keeps on its current course, it will make landfall there within 24 hours, which could either cripple the storm or put a halt in any phase of intensification. If GB has a significant impact on Isaias’ structure, that could spare Florida from a more significant landfall, assuming it is going to make landfall in FL.

[funster]

The highest elevation is only 40 feet. Won't limit the storm much if at all.

[caneseddy]

How high is the elevation of Grand Bahama? If Isaias keeps on its current course, it will make landfall there within 24 hours, which could either cripple the storm or put a halt in any phase of intensification. If GB has a significant impact on Isaias’ structure, that could spare Florida from a more significant landfall, assuming it is going to make landfall in FL.

About 40 feet..yeah won’t make a dent

And Andros which is the big island on the left side is around 130 feet so don’t expect the Bahamas to make a dent

[eastcoastFL]

How high is the elevation of Grand Bahama? If Isaias keeps on its current course, it will make landfall there within 24 hours, which could either cripple the storm or put a halt in any phase of intensification. If GB has a significant impact on Isaias’ structure, that could spare Florida from a more significant landfall, assuming it is going to make landfall in FL.

I think its fairly flat. The highest elevation is like 40 ft lol.

[Steve H.]

Grand Bahama island is a small piece of dirt that is flat.

[wzrgirl1]

I bet the Fort Lauderdale watch gets upgraded at 11pm to a warning.

So that means it will be dark, late at night, cant wake up the niehgbors but know I need to put up shutters so therefore i don't sleep a wink and then at sunrise i put up shutters as winds increase to tropical storm force...non of that sounds like a recipe for success

Why don’t you put up a few now? You still have a couple of hours of sunlight. At least that will give you a jumpstart for the morning?

[gatorcane]

In regards to dry air:
With the recent strengthening it is pretty sure to develop a strong CDO/core and circulation envelope which could very likely wall off the remaining dry air to the north and west. If this does happen we could have one hell of a strong hurricane. Looks like a dangerous situation developing now, especially for the Bahamas in the near term.

Great point. Here in SE Florida today, it is literally a desert with just a few clouds and milky skies as SAL is in firm control. Also it really hot. I was outside doing yard work this afternoon and it was unbearable even by the coast where I live. One would think the storm is going to have a hard time dealing with this dry airmass as it approaches the NW Bahamas and South Florida.

One thing absent: saw very few birds around, a bit unusual.