ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

^ This. We have 12 hours or so left until landfall. This speed is confirmed by latest recon too.

Tonight's situation definitely reminds me of Harvey. That storm deepened literally miles off the coast of Texas right up until landfall.

This is wrong. We have maybe 3-4 hours left til landfall. It has gained 30 miles on Gulf Shores on the last 6 hours or so.

You better tell the NHC that. At 1:00 AM CDT the NHC has the storm at 29.9°N 87.8°W moving NNE at 2 mph. That's 24 miles from Gulf Shores. 24 miles / 2 mph = 12 hours until landfall.

Granted, we'll probably see the storm accelerate some, so probably less than 12 hours. 8:00 AM central seems right, in line with the previous NHC forecast.

It has been moving faster than 2 mph for several hours now. Anyone with any radar skill can see that. I’m not sure why the hurricane center hasn’t bumped that forward motion higher.

[Jonny]

Will she be able to keep category 2/3 status at landfall?

[us89]

NHC did not issue their special advisory within 15 minutes as promised...probably some serious debate on where to put the initial intensity (and a bit of distraction from now-Hurricane Teddy). I’d guess 95 kt but wouldn’t be surprised to see it at 100 kt sometime before landfall.

[cfisher]

I'd put landfall around ~6:00AM, northern eyewall is starting to come ashore. Also appears to be a few possible mesovortices rotating within the eye (which coincides with the strengthening we've seen from recon). Hard to confirm without visible satellite though.

https://i.ibb.co/pvQRK8v/radarloop.gif

Wow you can see that band wrapping around on the SW. About to close up again

[Beef Stew]

Slightly off-topic but Teddy is now an 85 mph hurricane, meaning there are currently three active hurricanes- Paulette, Sally, and Teddy- in the NATL Basin.

[ElectricStorm]

NHC did not issue their special advisory within 15 minutes as promised...probably some serious debate on where to put the initial intensity (and a bit of distraction from now-Hurricane Teddy). I’d guess 95 kt but wouldn’t be surprised to see it at 100 kt sometime before landfall.

That will probably be what the update is honestly. Cat 2 now, showing cat 3 at landfall imo

[PavelGaborik10]

Will she be able to keep category 2/3 status at landfall?

Absolutely.

[cheezyWXguy]

Reed's stream is starting to get intense...as it usually does

[FLpanhandle91]

I believe that the center got tugged north due to strong convection in the northern eyewall. As this rotates south and eventually east, I expect another stall and subsequent east jog before landfall.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This is wrong. We have maybe 3-4 hours left til landfall. It has gained 30 miles on Gulf Shores on the last 6 hours or so.

You better tell the NHC that. At 1:00 AM CDT the NHC has the storm at 29.9°N 87.8°W moving NNE at 2 mph. That's 24 miles from Gulf Shores. 24 miles / 2 mph = 12 hours until landfall.

Granted, we'll probably see the storm accelerate some, so probably less than 12 hours. 8:00 AM central seems right, in line with the previous NHC forecast.

It has been moving faster than 2 mph for several hours now. Anyone with any radar skill can see that. I’m not sure why the hurricane center hasn’t bumped that forward motion higher.

Probably because the NHC has better skill when it comes to looking at radar than you (or me, for that matter). No offense meant, of course.

[wx98]

103 kt FL winds on E side

[cheezyWXguy]

136mph in 2 separate bins in the NE quad. Highest I've seen yet.

[Fancy1001]

I think they might go with 115 in the next update.

[ClarCari]

I think they might be “stalling” to see if they can justify a Cat.3 right now instead of later.

[Sanibel]

Didn't think Sally had it in her...

Timmer getting fire hose blasted...

[kassi]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1306115597667835904

[ElectricStorm]

I think they might go with 115 in the next update.

Not quite imo. I'm thinking 110 at this special advisory with the possibility for 115 at landfall

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I imagine there's some very intense debates going on at the NHC right now. Very stressful night no doubt.

[Aric Dunn]

Going live in the eyewall.. monsterous sounds.

https://www.facebook.com/Hurricane-Sall ... 354981427/

[wx98]

Gulf Shores is in the thick of it. The edge of the eye is now only 6-7 miles off the beach...