ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Fancy1001]

It leveled out on the latest center pass. Pressure back to 970. Mid to high-end Cat 2 is probably where this will end up.

If the eye contracts, even if the pressure stabilizes, winds could still increase. I wouldn't rule it out just yet.

NHC has it landfalling at 110mph so high cat 2 or low cat 3 seems like a good bet at this point. Impacts will be the same regardless

Yeah, but the historical records want a Cat 3.

[TallahasseeMan]

Hurricane Sally Special Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
130 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

Justification for this special advisory is to increase the
initial intensity and the 12-h forecast intensity at landfall.

Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Mobile
Alabama WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that Sally has continued
to strengthen this morning. Radar data show that Sally's eye has
become better defined and Doppler velocities in the northern eyewall
have reached average values of at least 110 kt between 5000-6000 ft
ASL, which supports an equivalent surface wind speed of about 89 kt.
The reconnaissance aircraft has recently measured peak 700-mb
flight-level winds of 103 kt, which equates to about 93 kt using a
standard 90 percent adjustment factor, while peak SFMR surface wind
speed have been 85 kt. In addition, a recent dropsonde in the
northeast eyewall measured an average wind speed of 113 kt in the
lowest 150 meters, which equates to about a 94-kt surface wind.
However, those winds appeared to be possibly contaminated by wind
gusts. Based on the above data, the initial intensity has been
increased to 90 kt.

Some additional slight strengthening is possible until landfall
occur, and Sally could peak at 95 kt. Rapid weakening will occur
after the center moves inland, and the system should become a
remnant low in a couple of days. This is consistent with the
latest model guidance.

Radar and aircraft center fixes indicate that Sally's motion is
north-northeastward, or 030/02 kt. No changes were made to the
previous track forecast. Sally should continue to move
north-northeastward this morning, and then turn northeastward with
a gradual increase in forward speed by tonight. That motion will
then continue for the next day or so. Then, as Sally approaches the
westerly flow at higher latitudes, the cyclone should turn toward
the east-northeast with a slight further increase in forward speed
until becoming a dissipating remnant low near the southeast U.S.
coast in 2-3 days. The official forecast is close to the latest
corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA, prediction.


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[ClarCari]

They’d figure it wouldn’t be wise to call this a major until the have the final proof they need to do so, which is why it’s not on the forecast.
I believe they may expect to become a major actually, but they probably don’t wanna call it a Cat.3 and weaken before landfall or have it fluctuate too much.
If they call it a major they wanna make sure it stays one until landfall.
Eyewall contraction could have slowed some as well. Could resume strengthening shortly.

[cfisher]

2020SEP16 062016 5.8 946.0 109.8 5.6 5.9 5.9

[Dean4Storms]

Another Recon has left Houston, is en-route.

[Stormgodess]

They’d figure it wouldn’t be wise to call this a major until the have the final proof they need to do so, which is why it’s not on the forecast.
I believe they may expect to become a major actually, but they probably don’t wanna call it a Cat.3 and weaken before landfall or have it fluctuate too much.
If they call it a major they wanna make sure it stays one until landfall.
Eyewall contraction could have slowed some as well. Could resume strengthening shortly.

I understand that, but dang these winds are hitting people now.

[TallahasseeMan]

Think recon might be setting up for one more shot, it’ll be a bit before the replacement flight gets there.


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[smw1981]

I can’t believe the NHC is saying it still has 12 more hours over water. We knew the flooding was going to be bad, but WOW.

[Blow_Hard]

Yet another tornado warning for Panama City. Weak debris signature evident on cc

If memory serves they got hit several times with tornadoes with Ivan and I think someone got injured or killed.

You're right Dean...I believe there were 3 fatalities in PC/PCB and I believe there were a few more in Blountstown as well.

[Ed_2001]

Nobody look at the Euro's track for Teddy

That recurve is strangely...familiar.

[cfisher]

New hot tower in the eastern eyewall?

[Fancy1001]

New hot tower in the eastern eyewall?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/KMOB/2020/09/16/KMOB20200916064925.png

Just in time for recon to dive on in.

[northjaxpro]

Think recon might be setting up for one more shot, it’ll be a bit before the replacement flight gets there.


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This is what I am hoping to happen.

[Fancy1001]

Think recon might be setting up for one more shot, it’ll be a bit before the replacement flight gets there.


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This is what I am hoping to happen.

I think they're going to hold off on the three p.m. update until that plane goes through.

[Fancy1001]

They need to exit through the North West section of the eye, something's going on there and I'd like to see what.

[cfisher]

you can see on IR the inner eyewall still trying to wrap around. wonder if gets closed before landfall

[FLpanhandle91]

Looks like smaller eye feature is rotating around a larger eye. This is going to delay landfall a bit.

[bella_may]

NWS only called for 35-50mph gusts for SE Mississippi tonight. Certainly sounds like more right now

[cfisher]

Looks like smaller eye feature is rotating around a larger eye. This is going to delay landfall a bit.

It looks... quite small

[PEA_RIDGE]

They need to exit through the North West section of the eye, something's going on there and I'd like to see what.

you and i both