ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Fancy1001]

It looks to me like the South or South West section of the eye is opening up.

[FLpanhandle91]

86kt SFMR unflagged in NE eyewall.

[TallahasseeMan]

Based on the eye breaking open on radar I can’t imagine this thing will still be strengthening when the next recon flight gets there.


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[galaxy401]

Still deepening according to the most recent recon pass. Pressure still dropping. Now mid 960s...

[cheezyWXguy]

Based on the eye breaking open on radar I can’t imagine this thing will still be strengthening when the next recon flight gets there.


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It has been this way the entire night, with only brief bouts where it appeared closed on radar. It even appeared open when Recon confirmed it was closed. I don't think this is an issue. However, there is evidence of shear beginning to impact the western edge of the storm. Think it will take some time to get near the core though.

[Sanibel]

I think that the north core is so dense it is blocking the radar from seeing the south core...It's an illusion...

[lovingseason2013]

They’d figure it wouldn’t be wise to call this a major until the have the final proof they need to do so, which is why it’s not on the forecast.
I believe they may expect to become a major actually, but they probably don’t wanna call it a Cat.3 and weaken before landfall or have it fluctuate too much.
If they call it a major they wanna make sure it stays one until landfall.
Eyewall contraction could have slowed some as well. Could resume strengthening shortly.

I understand that, but dang these winds are hitting people now.

As I sit here in my living room listening to gusts outside that take my breath away, I could care less what category they say it is. That is for records and not real time action.

[cfisher]

It's really fighting shear to wrap that convection around. We'll see if it can do it!

[AxaltaRacing24]

Based on the eye breaking open on radar I can’t imagine this thing will still be strengthening when the next recon flight gets there.


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It has been this way the entire night, with only brief bouts where it appeared closed on radar. It even appeared open when Recon confirmed it was closed. I don't think this is an issue. However, there is evidence of shear beginning to impact the western edge of the storm. Think it will take some time to get near the core though.

it takes a little more than 20-30 kts of shear to really stop these 100mph+ gulf storms. laura is an example.

[Blow_Hard]

It seems to be nearly stationary again...

[Texas Snowman]

Most of the chasers I’m watching give reports on Twitter keep commenting that Sally is much stronger/worse than they were expecting, even two or three hours ago.

[Sanibel]

As I sit here in my living room listening to gusts outside that take my breath away, I could care less what category they say it is. That is for records and not real time action.

If the eyewall continues doing what it is doing you are going to see a lot worse in a couple of hours...

[cfisher]

Recon making another pass.

[Texas Snowman]

@WXgage — #HurricaneSally is much... MUCH stronger than I had anticipated even 3 hours ago. Has blown away my expectations by 10 fold so far. This is incredible.

[FLpanhandle91]

Inner eye embedded within larger eye may have given the impression of increased forward speed as it rotated around. As this smaller eye rotates south, I believe it will seem like it has stalled again and maybe even moved offshore a touch.

[cheezyWXguy]

139mph radar velocity just off the coast now
Edit: new frame in, now multiple bins of 140mph

[FLpanhandle91]

Recon making another pass.

I think they're headed home. AF308 will be there shortly.

[fwbbreeze]

Here in Fort Walton on the west side of Choctawhatchee bay winds are sustained I would guess between 50 and 60 with higher gusts. If you are in the dock repair business there is going to be more work than anyone can handle!

[CrazyC83]

 https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1306131396310847493

[CrazyC83]

139mph radar velocity just off the coast now
Edit: new frame in, now multiple bins of 140mph

That would support winds of at least 95 kt, possibly 100 kt.