ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[Nimbus]

You never know where a tumbleweed will take root but apparently there is a partial LLC thats only missing a west wind? Should be consolidating enough soon that the models will start to agree.

[Aric Dunn]

You never know where a tumbleweed will take root but apparently there is a partial LLC thats only missing a west wind? Should be consolidating enough soon that the models will start to agree.

probably overnight as we get increased moisture flux from convection over SA and it should slow down as well.

[GCANE]

That outflow from Genevieve is like a fire hose aimed into the GoM.
Crashing into the west Yucatan and creating a sh.tstorm.
West Cuba firing up as well.
Flowing into the W Carib.

https://imgur.com/gYSXgNl

LoL, another GFS fail

[Cpv17]

That outflow from Genevieve is like a fire hose aimed into the GoM.
Crashing into the west Yucatan and creating a sh.tstorm.
West Cuba firing up as well.
Flowing into the W Carib.

https://imgur.com/gYSXgNl

LoL, another GFS fail

https://i.imgur.com/CQBmVvC.png

The GFS won’t show anything till it’s a mid grade tropical storm.

[Javlin]

That outflow from Genevieve is like a fire hose aimed into the GoM.
Crashing into the west Yucatan and creating a sh.tstorm.
West Cuba firing up as well.
Flowing into the W Carib.

https://imgur.com/gYSXgNl

LoL, another GFS fail

https://i.imgur.com/CQBmVvC.png

I am no good on the use of that graphic but is it saying we have freezing rain at the 500mb because it heads back -20' I am guessing?

[GCANE]

That outflow from Genevieve is like a fire hose aimed into the GoM.
Crashing into the west Yucatan and creating a sh.tstorm.
West Cuba firing up as well.
Flowing into the W Carib.

https://imgur.com/gYSXgNl

LoL, another GFS fail

https://i.imgur.com/CQBmVvC.png

The GFS won’t show anything till it’s a mid grade tropical storm.

I am comparing the moisture depicted on WV with what GFS is initializing.
This is the point in the GoM that shows the strong outflow from Genevieve.
See the red dot in the GFS sounding for the location.
WV imagery depicts strong 500mb moisture.
Yet, the GFS temp vs dewpoint at 500mb depicts very dry air.

[GCANE]

That outflow from Genevieve is like a fire hose aimed into the GoM.
Crashing into the west Yucatan and creating a sh.tstorm.
West Cuba firing up as well.
Flowing into the W Carib.

https://imgur.com/gYSXgNl

LoL, another GFS fail

https://i.imgur.com/CQBmVvC.png

I am no good on the use of that graphic but is it saying we have freezing rain at the 500mb because it heads back -20' I am guessing?

Its just showing the difference in 500mb moisture in the GoM where the red dot is.
WV imagery indicates very moist air at 500mb, but the GFS sounding indicates the opposite - dry air.

[MississippiWx]

Pretty impressive looking wave this evening. I think it’s going to be difficult for this to not develop into a tropical cyclone in the next day or two. The quicker it happens, the more likely it will have little interaction with the Yucatán and become a stronger storm in the Gulf.

[Cpv17]

Pretty impressive looking wave this evening. I think it’s going to be difficult for this to not develop into a tropical cyclone in the next day or two. The quicker it happens, the more likely it will have little interaction with the Yucatán and become a stronger storm in the Gulf.

Yep and if that’s the case it’ll be headed most likely in your direction.

[Steve]

Pretty impressive looking wave this evening. I think it’s going to be difficult for this to not develop into a tropical cyclone in the next day or two. The quicker it happens, the more likely it will have little interaction with the Yucatán and become a stronger storm in the Gulf.

Yeah. Super nice blowup happening. Looks like some of that will get pretty far up into the atmosphere.
vis hi-res as long as you can see it
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

IR
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Hey Steve, Haven’t been around much this season obviously. Hope all has been well with you and your family. Trying to make more time to get back into all this but some on here make it difficult. Definitely not like it used to be years ago.

[MississippiWx]

Pretty impressive looking wave this evening. I think it’s going to be difficult for this to not develop into a tropical cyclone in the next day or two. The quicker it happens, the more likely it will have little interaction with the Yucatán and become a stronger storm in the Gulf.

Yep and if that’s the case it’ll be headed most likely in your direction.

In any other year with such meager model support, I wouldn’t worry too much. However, the environment ahead is conducive enough to ramp this up, and I still can’t get over models not forecasting Hanna. This thing is spinning in the most explosive area of the Atlantic basin in the middle of August. It certainly has my attention.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave and accompanying broad area of low pressure is
producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms over the
central Caribbean Sea. This system is gradually becoming better
organized, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a couple
of days when the system reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
This low pressure area is moving westward, and interests in Honduras
and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor its progress.
Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely produce
heavy rains across a large portion of Central America and
southeastern Mexico late this week and this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Mehhh I wouldn’t worry much until it gets to the Yucatán and then see what models are showing and what it looks like. And of course conditions in the northern gulf.

[wxman57]

I've never thought much of this disturbance. My focus has been on 98L as the bigger threat. It all will come down to what it does late Friday/Saturday over the NW Caribbean. If it suddenly blows up there, then it may turn more northward toward the south-central Gulf. Otherwise, it's heading west.

[South Texas Storms]

This system is looking better organized this evening and will likely develop over the next few days as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula. I don't know why most models refuse to develop this. I've been thinking this system would develop for several days now and the NHC has been on it as well. I must say this year tropical forecasting has been much tougher than normal with how bad the models are performing. And it is already a tough job to begin with.

[MississippiWx]

I've never thought much of this disturbance. My focus has been on 98L as the bigger threat. It all will come down to what it does late Friday/Saturday over the NW Caribbean. If it suddenly blows up there, then it may turn more northward toward the south-central Gulf. Otherwise, it's heading west.

This.

I’m a little more aggressive on development with this because of the current structure and the fact that it’s only going to get better due to slower forward motion.

[Cpv17]

This system is looking better organized this evening and will likely develop over the next few days as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula. I don't know why most models refuse to develop this. I've been thinking this system would develop for several days now and the NHC has been on it as well. I must say this year tropical forecasting has been much tougher than normal with how bad the models are performing. And it is already a tough job to begin with.

Well according to what 57 just said, it’s going towards the central Gulf if it develops and if not then it’s going to Mexico. I just want some rain already tired of temps near 100 every day for the past few weeks. Don’t want anything strong of course, though.

[South Texas Storms]

This system is looking better organized this evening and will likely develop over the next few days as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula. I don't know why most models refuse to develop this. I've been thinking this system would develop for several days now and the NHC has been on it as well. I must say this year tropical forecasting has been much tougher than normal with how bad the models are performing. And it is already a tough job to begin with.

Well according to what 57 just said, it’s going towards the central Gulf if it develops and if not then it’s going to Mexico. I just want some rain already tired of temps near 100 every day for the past few weeks. Don’t want anything strong of course, though.

I feel ya! And I agree our weather pattern has sucked most of the summer and I'm ready for some rain and cooler temperatures. Hopefully this system will bring us just that but forecast confidence is so slow we just won't know for a few days.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

97L INVEST 200820 0000 14.5N 74.8W ATL 30 1008