ATL: MARCO - Models

[SoupBone]

Euro has a weak tropical storm making landfall south of Galveston, I think. I'm on my phone, not easy to see well.

[stormlover2013]

Euro is basically the same

[supercane4867]

HWRF also blows it up into a major before Yucatan landfall.

[Shell Mound]

HWRF shows near-simultaneous landfalls on 24 August, with TD Fourteen hitting near Cocodrie, LA, and TD Thirteen passing over Key West, FL:




At the time, Fourteen is heading N and Thirteen WNW. Fourteen is then a strong Category-2 TC and Thirteen a rapidly deepening Category-4 TC.

[catskillfire51]

6z GFS into Galveston Bay

[3090]

6z GFS into Galveston Bay

No change really

[Shell Mound]

6z GFS into Galveston Bay

No change really

The GFS continues to follow the ECMWF in showing a stronger ridge that drives TD Fourteen farther W in the GoM before gradually turning N.



Edit: 06Z HWRF already shows Tropical Storm Laura within the next six hours, while TD Thirteen is still shown to be a depression at that time:

[wxman57]

A stronger Fourteen would be picked up by the trof to the north and accelerated quickly toward SE LA. A weaker system may not be picked up and/or may stall in the Gulf and dissipate as 13 moves into the eastern Gulf. It's highly unlikely we'll have two hurricanes in the Gulf making landfall hours apart on the northern Gulf coast just 350 miles from each other.

[catskillfire51]

HWRF at 78 hr is slower and west so far

[Nimbus]

06Z just buries 14L in Central America south of Belize, that would be easy on the warnings crew.

HWRF has been chosen to show the stronger depictions, 14L going in near the Central Louisiana coastline followed by a 936 MB bad dream making landfall just east of Mobile.

[Extratropical94]

6z GFS into Galveston Bay

No change really

The GFS continues to follow the ECMWF in showing a stronger ridge that drives TD Fourteen farther W in the GoM before gradually turning N.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020082106/gfs_z500trend_atl_7.png

Edit: 06Z HWRF already shows Tropical Storm Laura within the next six hours, while TD Thirteen is still shown to be a depression at that time:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082106/hwrf_mslp_wind_14L_3.png

06Z HWRF intensifies it too quickly. The current pressure is 1008-1009mb instead of 1001mb, and I have my doubts that 14L will be down to 991mb nine hours from now.

[chris_fit]

06Z EURO actually has something that resembles a TS around the Keys. Most of the heavy weather north of the CoC.

Edit: Meant to post this in the 13 Thread, sorry, but I'll leave this here as it shows 14 as well

[dantonlsu]

HWRF shows near-simultaneous landfalls on 24 August, with TD Fourteen hitting near Cocodrie, LA, and TD Thirteen passing over Key West, FL:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082100/hwrf_mslp_wind_14L_30.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082100/hwrf_mslp_wind_13L_30.png

At the time, Fourteen is heading N and Thirteen WNW. Fourteen is then a strong Category-2 TC and Thirteen a rapidly deepening Category-4 TC.

If i recall, the HWRF blew up Hannah to quite the storm as well.

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 106&fh=108

the ole navy model lol

[Nederlander]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2020082106&fh=108

the ole navy model lol

That’s a pretty realistic solution actually

[SoupBone]

What in the world did the GFS do with this, bury it?

Nevermind, I see it, TropicalTidbits was showing me another model for some reason.

[stormlover2013]

http://flhurricane.com/images/2020/clark14latest.png


12z runs

[Steve]

This is the first I'm looking at models this morning, so it's mostly a recap of what probably everyone else has already seen.

GFS 06z
14 - weak system landfall near Galveston Tuesday afternoon
Laura - Not much, very weak circulation off of Mobile/Pensacola
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 106&fh=108

HRWF 06z
14 - Landfalls a 970 (Cat 2) early AM Tuesday near Grand Chenier, LA (Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge area)
Laura - 957 through FL Keys Monday afternoon; 940's landfall likely in Baldwin or Mobile County sometime Wednesday afternoon or evening
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2106&fh=99
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 106&fh=126

HMON 06z
14 - Landfalls Vermilion Bay, LA Monday afternoon as 976 (Cat 2)
Laura - Washes out after being torn up by the islands and is at 1008 in the middle of the Gulf about 26.6N 92.2W as a weak remnant low
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2106&fh=87
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 106&fh=126

ICON 06z
14 - Landfalls a week circulation also near Vermilion Bay Tuesday (sits near the coast for a couple days). Possible depression
Laura - Headed for SE Mississippi as a decent TS (1003) overnight hours of Wednesday am.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 106&fh=102
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 106&fh=120

NAVGEM 06z
14 - Landfalls a decent Cat 2 (975mb) just north of Galveston Bay Tuesday evening
Laura - Weak system landfalls near Cross City, FL around midnight Monday night
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 106&fh=114
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2106&fh=96

NAM 12km @ 12z
14 - Traveling toward the TX Coast weak
Laura - Crossing the western side of Cuba @ 1004
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2112&fh=84

Overall model plots from SFWMD
14 - SE Texas (TVCN very close to the coast SE of Port Arthur (McFadden Wildlife Refuge)
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

Laura - South Alabama (TVCN is right to the AL/MS Border (Grand Bay area)
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

[Steve]

12z ICON

14 - weak and winding down off the SE TX Coast

Laura - Hits Harrison County, MS (Gulfport/Biloxi) late Tuesday night.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 112&fh=111

[SoupBone]

12z ICON

14 - weak and winding down off the SE TX Coast

Laura - Hits Harrison County, MS (Gulfport/Biloxi) late Tuesday night.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 112&fh=111

Looks like the ICON has it interacting with Laura, causing her to be the more dominant of the two.