ATL: LAURA - Models

[ConvergenceZone]

So it looks like now both the GFS and Euro both say this won’t develop? ,,.. interesting.
I wonder if the other models will soon follow?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

HWRF doesn't show TC genesis until about 40 hours, which is very believable.

You need to look at HI res euro. to see the interaction with the multiple vortices. it explains all. conditions are still good. just takes a lot of time to bring everything together.

but looks like it wants to swing more towards the HWRF/HMON dynamics .. with a third vort down in the ITCZ to the wsw of the 98L

or some mixture of the two solutions.

https://i.ibb.co/yg7NQQ3/modez-20200818-1200-animation.gif

I do not have access to the Hi-res Euro, but the GFS is showing something similar. In these situations, however, I've seen the models highly struggle to accurately predict when/how consolidation occurs. I think there's a real chance this could consolidate in 40 hours time, and the NHC seems to agree with this.

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF doesn't show TC genesis until about 40 hours, which is very believable.

You need to look at HI res euro. to see the interaction with the multiple vortices. it explains all. conditions are still good. just takes a lot of time to bring everything together.

but looks like it wants to swing more towards the HWRF/HMON dynamics .. with a third vort down in the ITCZ to the wsw of the 98L

or some mixture of the two solutions.

https://i.ibb.co/yg7NQQ3/modez-20200818-1200-animation.gif

I do not have access to the Hi-res Euro, but the GFS is showing something similar. In these situations, however, I've seen the models highly struggle to accurately predict when/how consolidations occur. I think there's a real chance this could consolidate in 40 hours time, and the NHC seems to agree with this.

Yes the global models really struggle with this type of interaction.

I would definitely hug the HWRF/HMON for the short term. they are best equipped at the moment.

[SouthFLTropics]

You need to look at HI res euro. to see the interaction with the multiple vortices. it explains all. conditions are still good. just takes a lot of time to bring everything together.

but looks like it wants to swing more towards the HWRF/HMON dynamics .. with a third vort down in the ITCZ to the wsw of the 98L

or some mixture of the two solutions.

https://i.ibb.co/yg7NQQ3/modez-20200818-1200-animation.gif

I do not have access to the Hi-res Euro, but the GFS is showing something similar. In these situations, however, I've seen the models highly struggle to accurately predict when/how consolidations occur. I think there's a real chance this could consolidate in 40 hours time, and the NHC seems to agree with this.

Yes the global models really struggle with type of interaction.

I would definitely hug the HWRF/HMON for the short term. they are best equipped at the moment.

The irony there is that those two couldn't be more polar opposite right now.

[toad strangler]

12Z Euro goes N of the GA's with a WEAK wave through 96hrs

[chris_fit]

12 EURO Looks very similar to the 12Z GFS actually - good consensus on nothing really developing through 120hrs, for now.

[SouthDadeFish]

You need to look at HI res euro. to see the interaction with the multiple vortices. it explains all. conditions are still good. just takes a lot of time to bring everything together.

but looks like it wants to swing more towards the HWRF/HMON dynamics .. with a third vort down in the ITCZ to the wsw of the 98L

or some mixture of the two solutions.

https://i.ibb.co/yg7NQQ3/modez-20200818-1200-animation.gif

I do not have access to the Hi-res Euro, but the GFS is showing something similar. In these situations, however, I've seen the models highly struggle to accurately predict when/how consolidations occur. I think there's a real chance this could consolidate in 40 hours time, and the NHC seems to agree with this.

Yes the global models really struggle with this type of interaction.

I would definitely hug the HWRF/HMON for the short term. they are best equipped at the moment.

I disagree. HWRF is notoriously bad with invests. It likes to spin up TCs. The model was tuned for developed TCs, not necessarily forecasting TC genesis from an elongated mess of vorticity. HWRF often has questionable initializations on top of that. I'm not saying the HWRF forecast will not verify, but for a disturbance like this, I would definitely lean toward the global models. I guess we shall see. FWIW, I still expect this disturbance to develop. Personally, I think the 12Z UKMET is very reasonable.

[SouthDadeFish]

12 EURO Looks very similar to the 12Z GFS actually - good consensus on nothing really developing through 120hrs, for now.

Two deterministic solutions do not make a robust consensus

[Blown Away]

The Euro has been all over the place with strength and track past 72 hours. GFS has been pretty consistent with little development.

[chris_fit]

12 EURO Looks very similar to the 12Z GFS actually - good consensus on nothing really developing through 120hrs, for now.

Two deterministic solutions do not make a robust consensus

Should have re-worded that. I meant to say "good agreement" or "similar solutions" - Not necessarily the "correct" solution

[MississippiWx]

Euro yesterday- 940mb major hurricane in the SW Atlantic.

Euro today- Open wave.

Yeah, sounds trustworthy.

[lsuhurricane]

Have a feeling that a great deal of reliability in forecast genesis at the NHC is currently based on how the ensembles for both the GFS and Euro are trending. Both the 06z Euro and 12z GFS ensembles were significantly more "robust" that the operational runs.

[WeatherEmperor]

Why do the Euro and GFS get all the attention, asks the JMA. I have decided to one-up both of you and send 98L as a hurricane into the Yucatan, says the JMA




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Aric Dunn]

I do not have access to the Hi-res Euro, but the GFS is showing something similar. In these situations, however, I've seen the models highly struggle to accurately predict when/how consolidations occur. I think there's a real chance this could consolidate in 40 hours time, and the NHC seems to agree with this.

Yes the global models really struggle with this type of interaction.

I would definitely hug the HWRF/HMON for the short term. they are best equipped at the moment.

I disagree. HWRF is notoriously bad with invests. It likes to spin up TCs. The model was tuned for developed TCs, not necessarily forecasting TC genesis from an elongated mess of vorticity. HWRF often has questionable initializations on top of that. I'm not saying the HWRF forecast will not verify, but for a disturbance like this, I would definitely lean toward the global models. I guess we shall see. FWIW, I still expect this disturbance to develop. Personally, I think the 12Z UKMET is very reasonable.

It may not do well in a general sense but it is designed to handle small mesoscale features such as this. as you already know.

"HWRF Model was designed to run in operations on demand for a maximum of eight storms throughout their life cycle from genesis to dissipation four cycles a day"

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 3219300293

....

for complex situations such as this it has, from my observations, excelled over globals out 24 hours. which is why I mentioned in the short term.

and yeah UKMET seems reasonable.

[Blown Away]

Euro says nada to 97L & 98L while NHC has Code Red for both... Interested to see if NHC starts backing down at 8 pm tonight...

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro is all open wave for 97 and 98. I think I'll just check back tomorrow at this point .

[Hammy]

It’s crazy how we went from the season exploding just two day ago to potentially nothing at all now, if neither one of these 2 invests develop. What the hell is going on with the Atlantic?

The models have been trash this year, that's what's wrong.

[plasticup]

Euro yesterday- 940mb major hurricane in the SW Atlantic.

Euro today- Open wave.

Yeah, sounds trustworthy.

I can confidently say it will be one of those solutions or something in between.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

As others have mentioned, take note of the huge disconnect between the GFS/ECMWF and their respective ensembles. The operational GFS is showing an open wave, at best, throughout the forecast period. The signal on the GFS ensembles is much more impressive. This, combined with the strong probabilities by the NHC for development in 48 hours, plus the fact we're heading into late-August, is why I'm being more aggressive with short term development. I do not think the GFS/ECMWF are handling its short term development correctly.

[chris_fit]

12Z Euro Run - Very VERY similar to the 12z GFS