ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3421 Postby Frank2 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:19 pm

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3422 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:22 pm

NDG wrote:Based on radar & radar loop I place the LLC near 22.1N & 82.1W, it took a big jog to the NW the last few hours but it appears to have gotten back on a WNW heading.

https://i.imgur.com/oCYdZcu.jpg

This is likely another center reformation, as the old vort looked to have passed near or over the isle of youth. Overall the general envelop is continuing wnw
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3423 Postby Nimbus » Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:27 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Aite, now will the NHC finally bump this to major hurricane strength in the next hour or will they first see how it fairs with the NW tip of Cuba?


Radar on the Isle of Youth shows the center mostly over water to the north.
NHC is usually conservative so they might wait till recon gets a few soundings to see if the surface pressures are dropping.
Preparing for a cat 2 isn't much different than cat 3 for "the beginning" of evacuation protocols where communities are evacuating flood and surge prone areas.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3424 Postby Frank P » Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:31 pm

NDG wrote:Based on radar & radar loop I place the LLC near 22.1N & 82.1W, it took a big jog to the NW the last few hours but it appears to have gotten back on a WNW heading.

https://i.imgur.com/oCYdZcu.jpg

I've watch several different sat loop presentations of Laura and from what I can discern it did sure look like to me that it took some NW jogs........ what I don't want to see, and not saying this is going to happen by any means, as it gets better organized that center will begin to wobble in a stair step fashion over time.... a significant number of WNW to NW jogs down the road would not be good at all for the central/SE LA coast... not that I want it to go to Texas by any means.... just throwing out that possibility, and anything can still be possible as the system continues to develop... I have seem many storms do the expected as to forecast path within the last 2-3 of landfall as we all have that seriously track the storms... IMO
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3425 Postby Nimbus » Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:35 pm

Frank P wrote:
NDG wrote:Based on radar & radar loop I place the LLC near 22.1N & 82.1W, it took a big jog to the NW the last few hours but it appears to have gotten back on a WNW heading.

https://i.imgur.com/oCYdZcu.jpg

I've watch several different sat loop presentations of Laura and from what I can discern it did sure look like to me that it took some NW jogs........ what I don't want to see, and not saying this is going to happen by any means, as it gets better organized that center will begin to wobble in a stair step fashion over time.... a significant number of WNW to NW jogs down the road would not be good at all for the central/SE LA coast... not that I want it to go to Texas by any means.... just throwing out that possibility, and anything can still be possible as the system continues to develop... I have seem many storms do the expected as to forecast path within the last 2-3 of landfall as we all have that seriously track the storms... IMO


The core winds of a major hurricane typically sweep a much narrower swath so the track forecast is going to be more important for a major storm. Probably won't know enough to make the call till they fly the ridge analysis later.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3426 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:37 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
NDG wrote:Based on radar & radar loop I place the LLC near 22.1N & 82.1W, it took a big jog to the NW the last few hours but it appears to have gotten back on a WNW heading.

https://i.imgur.com/oCYdZcu.jpg

This is likely another center reformation, as the old vort looked to have passed near or over the isle of youth. Overall the general envelop is continuing wnw


I don't see what you're talking about, clearly the circulation has been tracking further north.

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3427 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:38 pm

NDG wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
NDG wrote:Based on radar & radar loop I place the LLC near 22.1N & 82.1W, it took a big jog to the NW the last few hours but it appears to have gotten back on a WNW heading.

https://i.imgur.com/oCYdZcu.jpg

This is likely another center reformation, as the old vort looked to have passed near or over the isle of youth. Overall the general envelop is continuing wnw


I don't see what you're talking about, clearly the circulation has been tracking further north.

https://i.imgur.com/Fere0fd.gif

A few hours ago, recon found a center south of this one moving due west toward the Isle of Youth. This is clearly not the same center.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3428 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:42 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
NDG wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:This is likely another center reformation, as the old vort looked to have passed near or over the isle of youth. Overall the general envelop is continuing wnw


I don't see what you're talking about, clearly the circulation has been tracking further north.

https://i.imgur.com/Fere0fd.gif

A few hours ago, recon found a center south of this one moving due west toward the Isle of Youth. This is clearly not the same center.


Yes, I did see that but on the next pass they found it further NW, which must be this one.

Image
Last edited by NDG on Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3429 Postby wx98 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:47 pm

Still sticking with 105 mph as the peak at landfall.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3430 Postby cfisher » Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:48 pm

Looks like another center might be trying to form south and west closer to deep convection, possibly SW of Isla de la Juventud
Last edited by cfisher on Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:53 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3431 Postby wx98 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:48 pm

Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...CENTER OF LAURA PASSING NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH....
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 82.2W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3432 Postby Michele B » Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:48 pm

Blow_Hard wrote:
Rail Dawg wrote:Have 14 hurricane chases under the belt now lol. Laura is going to come to my backyard so I guess that makes it easier.

As an old-school forecaster my take is that there is almost too much information piled into the forecasts. Sometimes it is better to just look at the steering charts and the energy in the water. These hurricanes always do what they want to do.

Michael was a Cat 2 when I went nappy-time at 11pm in Panama City, FL. Woke up 6 hours later to a Cat 3 that eventually reached Cat 5. You all get my drift... sometimes even now we really don't know.

Good luck out there fellow professional/amateur weather people! We're all on here because we love studying one of the most powerful forces in nature!

Chuck


Hey Dawg...

I remember your from Michael...I live in PC and I remember your posts about staging in a Parking Garage if I remember correctly.
Just curious, have you been back to PC since Michael? That storm changed everything around here and most of it not good.

Stay safe my friend and I look forward to your posts and obs in the coming days.

Stay safe!


Hey, we came up to Mexico City a few month after Michael with supplies. It was surreal. It hurts my heart to hear things are actually worse in some ways. We havn't really followed it, but I'd like to see pix. We rode right along the main road and saw beach houses just gone, or bottom floors swept away. Then went inland a few blocks and could see just how far the impacts were.

In some ways it's a good thing if someone goes through a storm like that. It makes you a believer (!) in its power, if you get my drift. You don't take them with a grain of salt after "living through" a strong one.

I pity the forecasters trying to pinpoint where to tell folks it's going to land so as to know WHO has to get out of harms' way. There are so many factors. I expect even years from now, we won't really understand what made Laura act the way she did! There's so much we don't understand that impacts their strength and path.

Stay safe, folks!

SOrry to have to say we here on FL's west coast are breathing a sigh of relief. But I know the season's not over yet.....
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3433 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:51 pm

wx98 wrote:
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...CENTER OF LAURA PASSING NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH....
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 82.2W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


Cuban radar doesn't agree with their fix but they are the experts.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3434 Postby wx98 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:51 pm

Pontchartrain, Maurepas, and Borgne around NOLA are in the storm surge watch...
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3435 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:52 pm

No change in 5PM forecast track, but the discussion noted uncertainty remains.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3436 Postby Steve » Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:53 pm

Skogebo wrote:Long time lurker here. I really enjoy reading everyone's input here. I learn so much. So thank you all for that.

Anyways, I'm in San Antonio, Texas. I'm supposed to fly out tomorrow to go to Pensacola to visit my sister in Gulf Breeze. I leave San Antonio at 830am, land in Houston, then take off again at 1130am. I have never flown this close to a Hurricane and feel like my flights will likely be delayed if not cancelled altogether. What do you all think? Is that window tomorrow still flyable? Would you? :double:


I wouldn’t fly right now because of Covid. But I doubt a flight tomorrow from Houston to Pensacola would have any issues. I don’t see how.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3437 Postby MBryant » Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:56 pm

Blinhart wrote:
MBryant wrote:I made a precautionary reservation for tomorrow to Friday about 200 miles north, just in case. I like options.

Port Arthur Evacuation is now being reported on Radio. 6AM tomorrow.


Cameron Parish is under a Mandatory Evacuation.

That whole parish just about goes underwater with a high tide. Parts of Cameron parish are actually due south of us in Orange. The Sabine meanders northeast from it's mouth before heading more northerly.
Last edited by MBryant on Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological products.

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3438 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:56 pm

I think the NHC position might just a little too far south....
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3439 Postby cfisher » Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:56 pm

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3440 Postby Portastorm » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:00 pm

Skogebo wrote:Long time lurker here. I really enjoy reading everyone's input here. I learn so much. So thank you all for that.

Anyways, I'm in San Antonio, Texas. I'm supposed to fly out tomorrow to go to Pensacola to visit my sister in Gulf Breeze. I leave San Antonio at 830am, land in Houston, then take off again at 1130am. I have never flown this close to a Hurricane and feel like my flights will likely be delayed if not cancelled altogether. What do you all think? Is that window tomorrow still flyable? Would you? :double:


You should be fine. No issues in H-town tomorrow morning. If anything it looks like it'll be showery coming into Pensacola ... maybe a few bumps on the way down and that would be it. And I can assure you that the pilots will avoid as much as possible any storms/turbulence. They fly around tropical weather. I've actually been on several flights over the years where we had to take the long way around a tropical storm or hurricane in the south.
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