ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wzrgirl1]

I keep seeing posts as to the upgrade of Eta from tropical storm to Hurricane and that it will ONLY be tropical storm force winds. I just watched the director of the hurricane center stress the fact that the only difference between a strong tropical storm and minimal hurricane is 1 mph. I was also just outside trying to stake my newly planted mango tree to the ground in hopes that it could be saved and those wind gusts are no joke. I am in west Broward far removed from the center right now. I guess my point is do not let your guard down now that the center is over water. Stay safe out there folks!

[Cat5James]

I keep seeing posts as to the upgrade of Eta from tropical storm to Hurricane and that it will ONLY be tropical storm force winds. I just watched the director of the hurricane center stress the fact that the only difference between a strong tropical storm and minimal hurricane is 1 mph. I was also just outside trying to stake my newly planted mango tree to the ground in hopes that it could be saved and those wind gusts are no joke. I am in west Broward far removed from the center right now. I guess my point is do not let your guard down now that the center is over water. Stay safe out there folks!

We are definitely getting TS gusts in Broward right now

[wzrgirl1]

Considering driving down to chase in Key Largo, just unsure what the parking garage situation is down there.

We are going to set up a YouTube broadcast tonight from Key West.

While I definitely have some anxiety, I am excited that I have a chance to be in the eye, been in eyewalls, never the eye.

I have to say even with all the destruction, being outside in the eye of Wilma was pretty spectacular. I am not, however, encouraging anyone to do that. The backside comes in pretty quickly, “in the just the blink of an eye.”

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/weathernerds/status/1325468899912126466

[wxman57]

Getting a bit concerned on the west coast of Florida here, the new NHC track implies a landfall along the Nature Coast later in the week. Intensity is the question.

If I have to work then you have to work, too. NHC may still have a TS warning out until sunrise Monday. Maybe your local school district will decide to close.

[StormingB81]

I know this will sound like a stupid question. I’m in Brevard County right next to the coast and wondering why we are under a Tropical Storm Warning when right in the text it says “Winds will be under tropical storm force”?

[NDG]

Definitely TS conditions already at the Beaches in SE FL.

[wxman57]

Currently, Eta is predicted to pass just south of, or possibly over the southern Keys tonight as a hurricane. This track is about 85 miles south of Miami. Hurricane-force winds are predicted to extend only 20-30 miles north of Eta's center, so unless there is quite a large wobble, Miami won't see any sustained hurricane-force wind. Winds may gust 60-75 mph on the beaches of the SE Peninsula tonight. Inland, over the Peninsula, winds will be lower. Long-range track remains quite uncertain. I notice that the NHC's final 120 hr track point hasn't changed since yesterday morning. Still "on hold" waiting for greater forecast confidence. They don't have to issue a 7-day track like I do. Hard to put it "on hold" for 2 more days...

[gatorcane]

I am out by the beach and wind gusts are in the 35-40mph range.

[underthwx]

I think that ETA may have a surprise or two in store, as it has demonstrated already, if I lived in Florida, I would stay in touch with the updates, be prepared as best I could, rule of thumb, be prepared for one storm designation higher, then I would carry on as normal, watch a movie with my family or something.... Yall enjoy your Sunday my friends...

[underthwx]

Getting a bit concerned on the west coast of Florida here, the new NHC track implies a landfall along the Nature Coast later in the week. Intensity is the question.

If I have to work then you have to work, too. NHC may still have a TS warning out until sunrise Monday. Maybe your local school district will decide to close.

I hear ya Wxman57..where I work...it doesn't matter what the weather is doing, within reason of course...work goes on...may I ask what regions of the US you provide forecasts for?

[chaser1]

Dry air starting to entrain from the south and getting yanked up into Eta's southeast quad near Andros. Eta has been playing cat and mouse with the dry air but seems to be running out of real estate. Tops have warmed a good deal over the last couple hours as well. Watching carefully to see if any new towers can fire near center, otherwise I can't see how pressures don't begin to rise soon

[Weatherboy1]

I am out by the beach and wind gusts are in the 35-40mph range.

Swung by Jupiter Inlet earlier and that’s about what I would estimate too. Will be interesting to see just how close to mainland FL the turn occurs

[chaser1]

Might be seeing a "hint" of a westward wobble occurring. If the core is beginning to become a tad bit more shallow, then a more NW (rather then NNW) track due to trough interaction may be commencing. That would be good news for the Keys but we'll have to wait and see for an hour or two

[chaser1]

Anyone have a Cuban Radar link to verify possible westward jog? If not..... anyone simply have any Cuban cigars lol?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Currently, Eta is predicted to pass just south of, or possibly over the southern Keys tonight as a hurricane. This track is about 85 miles south of Miami. Hurricane-force winds are predicted to extend only 20-30 miles north of Eta's center, so unless there is quite a large wobble, Miami won't see any sustained hurricane-force wind. Winds may gust 60-75 mph on the beaches of the SE Peninsula tonight. Inland, over the Peninsula, winds will be lower. Long-range track remains quite uncertain. I notice that the NHC's final 120 hr track point hasn't changed since yesterday morning. Still "on hold" waiting for greater forecast confidence. They don't have to issue a 7-day track like I do. Hard to put it "on hold" for 2 more days...

Their cone has increased in size though to show the uncertainty...it almost looks like a big round ball and not a cone.

[cycloneye]

The new NHC met.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1325482473304809472

[chaser1]

Eta's magically diminishing core appears to be either reorganizing a tad westward and/or beginning it's more WNW hair-pin turn now (as well shown in attached graphic by Cycloneye above).

Edit: After further review, the play on the field has been reversed lol. Eta still appears to be moving generally Northwest however the center does appear to have expanded and deeper convection appearing shunted to the west atm

[Evil Jeremy]

Wow, that's awesome for Philippe.

[cycloneye]

The new NHC met.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1325482473304809472

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1325487760057241600