ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like we have landfall again..

looks be heading around 295 degrees now.

https://i.ibb.co/3vg6XC6/5.gif

That's a meso...

no that is where recon just flew by.

Any clue what the Air Force mission is?

[SouthernBreeze]

the outflow up above Laura seems to be heading NNW - that could mean nudging to the right in gulf eventually

[Hammy]

LLC is north of forecast track.

https://i.imgur.com/MPCMVYJ.jpg

Advisory position might have been too far south to start out.

[FixySLN]

the outflow up above Laura seems to be heading NNW - that could mean nudging to the right in gulf eventually

Was, earlier, alluding to the fact that it might stair climb its way into the gulf. Would bring it a bit more towards the east depending on how fast it spins up when it clears Cuba.

I'm not a pro, my observations are my own and purely based on amateur level analytics that are far surpassed by the majority of peeps on the forums.

[BRweather]

Please remember that recon is flying around 700 MB. The center they sample at flight level is at 700MB. The surface center is depicted well on radar and is further north where Aric has pointed it out to be. The surface center is further north due to the ongoing northerly shear. We should expect this system to be tilted to the south as depicted by HWRF cross sections.

[hipshot]

I knew it, the LLC is further north and west than what the NHC estimated.

https://i.imgur.com/PXotOxW.png

How can you tell that from the wind barbs in that post? What did I miss?

[cfisher]

tight core forming
https://imgur.com/a/zjOgEgJ

[Aric Dunn]

As silly as it sounds.. we may see the center jump or reform quickly off the north coast (again).

the Easterly flow over the water and weaker/slightly disrupted circ over land could lead to this.

[eastcoastFL]

So 18z HWRF comes in on the Texas LA border 929mb. Is that area heavily populated?

[tarheelprogrammer]

Prediction: I believe Laura will peak at 170mph and 899mb. Just a feeling. Hope I am dead wrong. Good luck to those in the path.

[NDG]

I am really surprised the Cuban Gov't has been allowing the AF recons fly over their territory on the way to Laura since relationships have gone down again between our two governments.

[eastcoastFL]

tight core forming
https://imgur.com/a/l3scG9C

I’m not seeing it on radar If that’s the core forming. Unless it’s just the angle of this radar

[NevadaFan18]

Prediction: I believe Laura will peak at 170mph and 899mb. Just a feeling. Hope I am dead wrong. Good luck to those in the path.

Any other particular reasons you feel this way?

[supercane4867]

Without land this would be nearing hurricane intensity already.

[eastcoastFL]

Prediction: I believe Laura will peak at 170mph and 899mb. Just a feeling. Hope I am dead wrong. Good luck to those in the path.

Oof. I hope you’re wrong too. I was think 935-945mb and that scares me

[SouthernBreeze]

As silly as it sounds.. we may see the center jump or reform quickly off the north coast (again).

the Easterly flow over the water and weaker/slightly disrupted circ over land could lead to this.

If center jumps N as Aric mentioned, future model runs could be a bit different than current runs

[davidiowx]

Prediction: I believe Laura will peak at 170mph and 899mb. Just a feeling. Hope I am dead wrong. Good luck to those in the path.

That’s a bold prediction cotton!

[Aric Dunn]

As silly as it sounds.. we may see the center jump or reform quickly off the north coast (again).

the Easterly flow over the water and weaker/slightly disrupted circ over land could lead to this.

If center jumps N as Aric mentioned, future model runs could be a bit different than current runs

Yeah a little .. it would not be a hge jump.

just potnetially make it a little faster.

[cfisher]

tight core forming
https://imgur.com/a/l3scG9C

I’m not seeing it on radar If that’s the core forming. Unless it’s just the angle of this radar

http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/00Pinar%20del%20Rio/lbjMAXw01a.gif

convection starting to fire just south of it.. we'll see

[supercane4867]

Prediction: I believe Laura will peak at 170mph and 899mb. Just a feeling. Hope I am dead wrong. Good luck to those in the path.

I'm going with 915mb/145kt. If this thing somehow gets to near 900mb it would be at least 160kt. The strongest system in western Gulf was Allen at 909mb/155kt.