ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Beef Stew]

...So much for getting a full night's sleep tonight. Looks like things may start to get very interesting in just a few hours. The next two/three days are going to be a marathon. I hope everyone in the cone realizes the potential gravity of the situation, and preps accordingly. For better or for worse, Harvey and Michael are still fresh in the minds of many gulf residents so they know just what could possibly transpire.

[Nimbus]

Levi said in his video the plane coming down from the Carolinas is finding the steering ridge a little stronger than forecast by the GFS model. That might translate to a landfall closer to Galveston island (if the trend continues). Marco is rolling west not interfering with the ridge evolution. Hope we get an accurate ridge estimate soon. I think Laura will roll west a little now that she is off the north coast of Cuba but basically on track. Sabine river area we picked several days ago still looks like the best compromise for landfall until we get more data.

[gqhebert]

Its the shape of the cuban coast give the appearance of a more northerly track....it is moving wnw

[chaser1]

This storm is taking no time at all in quickly wrapping up it's inner core. Been working all day and don't know whether recon is flying this evening. If so, I see a potential hurricane upgrade at 11:00pm tonight. Ensuing pressure falls will be fascinating to follow during the next 24 hours.

[St0rmTh0r]

Has anyone noticed that on the weather channel that they are talking more and more about this storm being potentially much more stronger than currently forecast? It seems like they are mentioning that more tonight compared to early in the day

It's pretty obvious just looking at satellite that it's going to be much stronger than forecast. An intensifying borderline cat 1 entering some the warmest waters on earth with favorable upper environment and ample moisture. It's a recipe for a major disaster. I feel for the people who work at NHC they have a tough job that I wouldn't want.

[superfly]

I'd love to have some of what you guys are having. It hasn't even crossed the southern border of Cuba yet, recon is flying between main island of Cuba and the Isle of Youth right now...

[chaser1]

Has anyone noticed that on the weather channel that they are talking more and more about this storm being potentially much more stronger than currently forecast? It seems like they are mentioning that more tonight compared to early in the day

I think they're echoing what NHC has been hinting in recent discussions, and what a number of us have expressed concern about given the anticipated ideal upper air conditions.

[Beef Stew]

Has anyone noticed that on the weather channel that they are talking more and more about this storm being potentially much more stronger than currently forecast? It seems like they are mentioning that more tonight compared to early in the day

It makes sense. Most forecasts were making a point to be intentionally conservative until Laura cleared the GA's just due to the lingering uncertainties of that process. Now that she's about to finally do that- in potentially a much quicker timeframe and with a far better structure than anticipated, no less- the room for discussion of a higher ceiling is warranted. I'm looking for the NHC to do the same with their forecast come 03z.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/statu ... 3037406214

[lrak]

Why is most of the convection south of the LLC? The southern half of the storm looks like it's beginning to detach.

[St0rmTh0r]

...So much for getting a full night's sleep tonight. Looks like things may start to get very interesting in just a few hours. The next two/three days are going to be a marathon. I hope everyone in the cone realizes the potential gravity of the situation, and preps accordingly. For better or for worse, Harvey and Michael are still fresh in the minds of many gulf residents so they know just what could possibly transpire.

Yes I would over prepare in a situation like this. Prepare for the worst and you wont be dead first is what my grandpa use to tell me.

[SunnyThoughts]

For those interested in seeing what cat 4/5 winds look like...skip ahead to about 42 minutes into this video. Michael

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3rHVCu_1ag

[NDG]

I am still in shock how much they are flying over land in Cuba.

[NDG]

To me that LLC inland will die off and a new will reform closer to the MLC now coming offshore. IMO.

[pcolaman]

It does look as it is moving more nw than wnw.

[cfisher]

The convection to the south should anchor the center from drifting NW in the near-term. Texas coast should start making evacuation plans.

There might even be a S component...

[Highteeld]

Has anyone noticed that on the weather channel that they are talking more and more about this storm being potentially much more stronger than currently forecast? It seems like they are mentioning that more tonight compared to early in the day

Cases like hurricane michael have people on high alert to upper-bound systems

IE

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1298071733417717763

[HoustonFrog]

Houston to Lake Charles needs to be prepared for a cat 4 or cat 5 hurricane. this is really, really getting desperate

Yeah this is looking like one of those storms. If I lived anywhere along those areas I'd be gone today

Houston is screwed if this turns into us. They haven’t had anyone evacuate yet, just a voluntary for Galveston

[Aric Dunn]

Towers popping north and south quad of the 925mb to 850 mb Circ.. wont take long to work to surface with that..

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/dejoniquetv/status/1298071373605220352