ATL: LAURA - Models

[hershels]

Another look at the wind gusts being forecasted by the 06z Euro, but I have noticed it tends to be too aggressive with wind gusts in the past, a lot of times, but if it deepens more than 940s mb it forecasts gusts could very well be this strong.

https://i.imgur.com/8SdsxCM.png

Similar to Ike there was a tight gradient over Houston, where the far west suburbs of the city only got Tropical storm force winds while the eastern half of the city received wind gust of 80+mph.

What part of Houston are you? I remember Ike, we were in Meyerland at the time and were without power for 2 weeks. We are in Bellaire now and on the police station and fire department grid, so there is hope!

This gal is worrisome!

[KWT]

06z ECM with 145mph gusts into Galveston and even more to the east...scary run.

Solid cat-4 from the looks of things on that run. NHC are going to have to up their intensity based on the last suite of models.

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1298243621137920000

[NDG]

Zoomed in look at the 12z TVCN, a slight shift westward continues, Thursday morning at 12z.

[Blown Away]

Euro tends to have a L bias... Its so close now, those few miles here and there matter...

[cheezyWXguy]

Euro tends to have a L bias... Its so close now, those few miles here and there matter...

It does, but in this case it may be right. The models have been playing catch-up with the strength of the ridge

[CypressMike]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1298243621137920000/photo/1

The ridge must've been underdone in earlier models. Let's see if this holds. If so, it could be close to a worst case scenario for Houston/Galveston.

[wxman22]

Another look at the wind gusts being forecasted by the 06z Euro, but I have noticed it tends to be too aggressive with wind gusts in the past, a lot of times, but if it deepens more than 940s mb it forecasts gusts could very well be this strong.

https://i.imgur.com/8SdsxCM.png

Similar to Ike there was a tight gradient over Houston, where the far west suburbs of the city only got Tropical storm force winds while the eastern half of the city received wind gust of 80+mph.

What part of Houston are you? I remember Ike, we were in Meyerland at the time and were without power for 2 weeks. We are in Bellaire now and on the police station and fire department grid, so there is hope!

This gal is worrisome!

Im in the Heights, but during Ike i lived in Spring we received gust of 80-90mph.Many trees were down in the area, I was without power for 2 weeks also.

[Roxy]

Similar to Ike there was a tight gradient over Houston, where the far west suburbs of the city only got Tropical storm force winds while the eastern half of the city received wind gust of 80+mph.

What part of Houston are you? I remember Ike, we were in Meyerland at the time and were without power for 2 weeks. We are in Bellaire now and on the police station and fire department grid, so there is hope!

This gal is worrisome!

Im in the Heights, but during Ike i lived in Spring we received gust of 80-90mph.Many trees were down in the area, I was also without power for 2 weeks also.

But don't forget ya'll. The Houston area goes all the way south to Galveston anymore....very populated in between.

[Blown Away]

Euro tends to have a L bias... Its so close now, those few miles here and there matter...

It does, but in this case it may be right. The models have been playing catch-up with the strength of the ridge

The ensembles are convincing of more W, but Euro was @50 miles to far W with Matthew, Isaias near FL... So I consider that

[cheezyWXguy]

Euro tends to have a L bias... Its so close now, those few miles here and there matter...

It does, but in this case it may be right. The models have been playing catch-up with the strength of the ridge

The ensembles are convincing of more W, but Euro was @50 miles to far W with Matthew, Isaias near FL... So I consider that

It’s biases should be taken into account, no doubt, as with any other model. Considering that the ensembles of both the euro and gfs have been west of the op though, and with the deterministic consensus a little to the east, it is of my personal amateur opinion that the euro solution could be plausible in its current depiction.

[CypressMike]

In some ways Laura calls to mind Hannah. The models initially had her making landfall around Matagorda Bay, but they kept shifting southward pretty much all the way up to landfall. Are there any similarities with how the models are handling the ridge?

[Blown Away]

Delete

[Blown Away]

In some ways Laura calls to mind Hannah. The models initially had her making landfall around Matagorda Bay, but they kept shifting southward pretty much all the way up to landfall. Are there any similarities with how the models are handling the ridge?

JMHO, many times as we get within 72 hrs, the modeling tends to slow down as they get a good grasp on the conditions, seems beyond 72 hrs many times modeling tends to move systems to fast, so delays by a few hours will influence a few miles here and there inside 72 hrs.

[sponger]

Euro tends to have a L bias... Its so close now, those few miles here and there matter...

It does, but in this case it may be right. The models have been playing catch-up with the strength of the ridge

The ensembles are convincing of more W, but Euro was @50 miles to far W with Matthew, Isaias near FL... So I consider that

Yes but nailed Irma.

[SconnieCane]

It does, but in this case it may be right. The models have been playing catch-up with the strength of the ridge

The ensembles are convincing of more W, but Euro was @50 miles to far W with Matthew, Isaias near FL... So I consider that

Yes but nailed Irma.

Was slightly too far left with Irma (put it deeper into Cuba and for longer), but a decent performance.

[hershels]

Looks like NWC left the track the same. Pretty sure nobody had that in the office pool?

[shah83]

Icon's 12z track doesn't quite seem reasonable. I guess main thing is that it thinks the storm is a bit slower and therefore go around the ridge a touch more east.

[catskillfire51]

Of note the NavGem and Icon all though not great didn't shift east these runs where yesterday at this time they started the daytime east shifts may be a hint to the future big model runs.

[jaguars_22]

Navgem doesn’t seem reasonable either way too far south and mid Texas coast not likely