ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[SFLcane]

Well the 6z Euro nearly take the circ into the NW carrib lol

given the convection is lopsided at this point who knows maybe it will reform in the NW carrib lol

https://i.ibb.co/hZ3fyy9/Capture.png

06z Still has it into the 980’s nearing the gulf coast. The problem is the core will probably be shredded by land. So you'll have a very broad low.

Edit: Which is why all the EPS members backed off

[Aric Dunn]

Well the 6z Euro nearly take the circ into the NW carrib lol

given the convection is lopsided at this point who knows maybe it will reform in the NW carrib lol

https://i.ibb.co/hZ3fyy9/Capture.png

06z Still has it into the 980’s nearing the gulf coast. The problem is the core will probably be shredded by land. So you'll have a very broad low.

Edit: Which is why all the EPS members backed off

6z is not done yet and does not go that far out.

[Aric Dunn]

6z.. euro. out to 81 hours so far.

interesting change.

and again with all the convection off to the east. seeing the center reform in the NW carrib or off the NE tip of the Yucatan would be quite possible if this solution were to happen

[Frank P]

Aric, are those wind velocities sustained and in MPH? Thanks

[Aric Dunn]

Sure looks like it wants to start turning the NE at the end of the run... trough coming in. that extra time over land on this run allowed the trough to get farther south...

Plot twist.. lol

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, are those wind velocities sustained and in MPH? Thanks

First off, it is in KPH not MPH so its a weak TS.

secondly I believe they are 1 min average winds.

[tolakram]

Still not sure why some were saying the GFS was lost. It consistently does well with early systems in the gulf, especially when sheared, while the Euro always seems to send storms too far west. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

[Steve]

Sure looks like it wants to start turning the NE at the end of the run... trough coming in. that extra time over land on this run allowed the trough to get farther south...

Plot twist.. lol

https://i.ibb.co/zskCdRX/modezrpd-20200607-0000-animation-1.gif

To me it looks the opposite. If you look toward the Carolina coast, you can kind of see a push to the south. More importantly there appears to be a push of dryer air from the SE which I’m assuming is ridging building in off the Atlantic. which would indicate a move to the left towards Texas or SWLA. I couldn’t identify which model the simulation was based on and would obviously need to see it at 500mb to confirm. Okay GFS shows exactly that.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 60306&fh=6

[stormlover2013]

Steve the 06 euro is more sw la, It won’t let me post image.

[TheStormExpert]

Good news waking up this morning seeing the Euro cave into the GFS with a weaker storm heading into the northern Gulf Coast now. The Euro has not been the same in a few years with lots of inconsistency, kudos to the GFS!

Still a legit rainmaker but the U.S. didn’t need a hurricane threat so soon anyways.

[Frank P]

Steve the 06 euro is more sw la, It won’t let me post image.

06 GFS to me appears to make the initial (or very close)landfall on the south east/central coast of LA, then takes a hard left turn west and basically hugs the rest of the coast line prior to going inland in extreme SWLA... Interesting run..

[NDG]

How about that ICON from just a couple of days ago, lol.
Hopefully the last few fans it had left see the picture that it ain't that good

[TheProfessor]

How about that ICON from just a couple of days ago, lol.
Hopefully the last few fans it had left see the picture that it ain't that good

https://i.imgur.com/jWXvb1o.png

If you're going to rag on the ICON then don't leave out the KING who had this landfalling in the eastern parts of Veracruz as of 48 hours ago or perhaps the GFS that not only was in a similar area as the Euro, but was nothing but a tropical wave, maybe a depression. None of the models have handled this well so far.

[northjaxpro]

Still not sure why some were saying the GFS was lost. It consistently does well with early systems in the gulf, especially when sheared, while the Euro always seems to send storms too far west. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Ahh Tolakram, you are hitting.on a point which I have been.biting my tongue about to the GFS skeptics in here. Oh how many people forget the GFS track record on sheared, early season June tropical cyclones.

I always like to remember T.S Debby in 2012 as the best example in recent years on how well the GFS has performed with these type of large gyres in the GOM.

[NDG]

How about that ICON from just a couple of days ago, lol.
Hopefully the last few fans it had left see the picture that it ain't that good

https://i.imgur.com/jWXvb1o.png

If you're going to rag on the ICON then don't leave out the KING who had this landfalling in the eastern parts of Veracruz as of 48 hours ago or perhaps the GFS that not only was in a similar area as the Euro, but was nothing but a tropical wave, maybe a depression. None of the models have handled this well so far.

Well at least the GFS and Euro had the right heading south vs heading north like the ICON had it.
But I agree, they have not handled it that well over all.

[TheStormExpert]

How about that ICON from just a couple of days ago, lol.
Hopefully the last few fans it had left see the picture that it ain't that good

https://i.imgur.com/jWXvb1o.png

If you're going to rag on the ICON then don't leave out the KING who had this landfalling in the eastern parts of Veracruz as of 48 hours ago or perhaps the GFS that not only was in a similar area as the Euro, but was nothing but a tropical wave, maybe a depression. None of the models have handled this well so far.

Well at least the GFS and Euro had the right heading south vs heading north like the ICON had it.
But I agree, they have not handled it that well over all.

The ICON just took the crown for most horrible global model!

[Wx_Warrior]

6z EURO FWIW


picture hosting

[TheStormExpert]

6z EURO FWIW

[url]https://i.ibb.co/sjbCdrh/Screen-Shot-2020-06-03-at-9-58-11-AM.png [/url]
picture hosting

I'll believe the Euro more once it reemerges into the BoC or SW Gulf.

[AutoPenalti]

No model will be correct until it resolves the whole land interaction situation - THAT or it reemerges into open water somewhere in the NW Gulf or BOC.

[MississippiWx]

The GFS, while not perfect, has probably had the best handle on this so far. The Canadian has done fairly decent as well. Euro could still be right from now on, but it has been outdone by the GFS so far. It will be interesting to see if it pops back out over water like the Euro shows.