ATL: FAY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

NHC's track is almost right on top of mine. Not sure why they didn't issue a PTC Six advisory yesterday, though. It reaches NJ tomorrow afternoon.

[northjaxpro]

The Notth Atlsntic Basin is behaving generally how the Eastern Pacific in most years. We are alrasdy on our sixth named storm, twice as many as the Eastern Pacific has generated at this current time.

[Aric Dunn]

only about 100 miles away from low to mid 70 degree water. probably wont be all too much left by tomorrow afternoon... in terms of deep convection anyway..

[toad strangler]

What a difference between two Fays - one in October, one in July. Half a season apart.

This season definitely has a 2011 vibe right now (albeit with more earlier storms).

There are some similarities, but I don't think the tracks are going to end up all that similar season vs. season. JMO

Agree. The track element of tropical seasons will always be as different as snowflakes are. You can rubber stamp all the known major conditions from another season and the tracks will differ and probably vastly.

[Steve]

What a difference between two Fays - one in October, one in July. Half a season apart.

This season definitely has a 2011 vibe right now (albeit with more earlier storms).

There are some similarities, but I don't think the tracks are going to end up all that similar season vs. season. JMO

Agree. The track element of tropical seasons will always be as different as snowflakes are. You can rubber stamp all the known major conditions from another season and the tracks will differ and probably vastly.

That was a year that featured an enormous amount of recurves in the West-Central Atlantic. ACE was in the 120's I think. We're going to get more U.S. hits as Fay will tie 2011 with 3 landfalls. Probably double the hits or more. And I'll bet anyone 100.00 we're going to get more than 125 ACE.

[GCANE]

Wind-Field analysis based on Recon Data



THE PLOT ABOVE WAS CALCULATED FROM THE RECON PLOT BELOW

[ozonepete]

SSTs are way above normal in its path. Here's the latest from NODC:

[Kingarabian]

SSTs are way above normal in its path. Here's the latest from NODC:

https://i.imgur.com/RzWqqmt.jpg

Hey Pete! Good to hear from you again.

Yeah those temperatures range from 25C-28C. Not cool enough to drastically weaken it. We've seen before where TC's maintain themselves over 25C waters so long as other conditions are favorable.

[Aric Dunn]

SSTs are way above normal in its path. Here's the latest from NODC:

https://i.imgur.com/RzWqqmt.jpg

if it moves fast enough with enough forcing it could deepend per yesterdays UKMET.

but still likely to have shallower than normal convection.

[ozonepete]

SSTs are way above normal in its path. Here's the latest from NODC:

https://i.imgur.com/RzWqqmt.jpg

Hey Pete! Good to hear from you again.

Yeah those temperatures range from 25C-28C. Not cool enough to drastically weaken it. We've seen before where TC's maintain themselves over 25C waters so long as other conditions are favorable.

Good to see you again too! Agree it's enough to maintain it regardless of what else happens.

[ozonepete]

SSTs are way above normal in its path. Here's the latest from NODC:

https://i.imgur.com/RzWqqmt.jpg

if it moves fast enough with enough forcing it could deepend per yesterdays UKMET.

but still likely to have shallower than normal convection.

Absolutely. With enough cold air aloft forcing would do the trick even as it keeps the convection lower topped. The real problem for NYC area is unfortunately if flow is south to southeasterly and winds get to 50-60 mph it will force the ocean into NY harbor and do a lot of flooding. That, they don't need right now.

[Aric Dunn]

the center just jumped a tad to the NE back to the edge of the convection.

[TheStormExpert]

Can’t remember a time where I’ve seen an actual “Tropical” Cyclone forecast to hit NYC.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1281363874726449159

[TheStormExpert]

NHC's track is almost right on top of mine. Not sure why they didn't issue a PTC Six advisory yesterday, though. It reaches NJ tomorrow afternoon.

I haven’t seen them issue any PTC advisories in forever! Makes me wonder what the point was of adding that if they never actually use it.

[Hurricanehink]

Can’t remember a time where I’ve seen an actual “Tropical” Cyclone forecast to hit NYC.

9 years? (Irene)

[ouragans]

Can’t remember a time where I’ve seen an actual “Tropical” Cyclone forecast to hit NYC.

9 years? (Irene)

Sandy 2012

[gfsperpendicular]

Can’t remember a time where I’ve seen an actual “Tropical” Cyclone forecast to hit NYC.

9 years? (Irene)

Sandy 2012

Sandy wasn't tropical upon landfall. Technically didn't really "hit" NYC like Irene or forecasted Fay either, but the RMW was so massive it didn't really matter.

[aspen]

Didn’t Andrea ‘13 make it up here fully tropical? I only vaguely remember it.

[Steve]

Didn’t Andrea ‘13 make it up here fully tropical? I only vaguely remember it.

Haha. That’s most of them.