ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ThetaE]

There are some modest mountains on the NW tip of Cuba, and Laura's current presentation looks like inflow is being blocked somewhat. There's a slight gap just on the north side of these mountains, indicating downslope air cutting the core of Laura off from deeper convection on the other side of Cuba. But Laura is moving steadily WNW-NW and Cuba's coastline bends the other direction, quickly putting distance between land and the storm. This does not look like a long-term hindrance or structural impairment to me.

[wxman22]

[eastcoastFL]

That big claw looking thing slowly hooks into the GOM and boom a blow up of cold pink cloud tops come spewing out.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Just found by recon:

994.7 mb
(~ 29.38 inHg)

[ColdMiser123]

LLC is now offshore according to recon, and is now co-located with a new hot tower.

[tolakram]

Loops are better at showing what Laura is doing.

[Kazmit]

I think any kind of RI will have to wait until Laura clears Cuba a bit more.

[HurricaneEdouard]

Just found by recon:

994.7 mb
(~ 29.38 inHg)

And here we go, folks.

[eastcoastFL]

Here’s another great close up view if you’re looking for IR or different overlays

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 905&y=6116

[Steve]

NHC has the remnants of Marco fading on Tuesday night in roughly the same place Laura should hit Wednesday night. We didn’t get fujiwara like some in the media had suggested, but apparently the NW Gulf is the place to be if you are a surface low pressure.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... e#contents

[eastcoastFL]

I think any kind of RI will have to wait until Laura clears Cuba a bit more.

Ya, she’s gonna need to move a little away from the island so the bands don’t get interrupted and the inflow is not disturbed and from there it’s just fuel and fire.

[AutoPenalti]

Loops are better at showing what Laura is doing.

https://imgur.com/cdX6Ecv

By all accounts, and I could be wrong, it looks like Laura is establishing a CDO.

[HurricaneEdouard]

That last hit on Cuba took a toll...

You've been saying this after every land interaction Laura has undergone, when it's actually strengthened each time. With so many new users browsing this thread looking for info, I think we should keep the blatant contradictions with the official NHC discussions and advisories down to a minimum.

[rigbyrigz]

LLC is now offshore according to recon, and is now co-located with a new hot tower.

Me: "Mom, the experts say recon data shows the LLC offshore now and co-located with a new hot tower."

Mom: "Does that mean I should take the raincoat or the poncho?"

Me: "Both".

[Javlin]

did the the COC jump Cuba? If it did it's the outlier!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

[superfly]

did the the COC jump Cuba? If it did it's the outlier!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

That's the location at 0z.

[eastcoastFL]

NHC has the remnants of Marco fading on Tuesday night in roughly the same place Laura should hit Wednesday night. We didn’t get fujiwara like some in the media had suggested, but apparently the NW Gulf is the place to be if you are a surface low pressure.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... e#contents

Let’s hope Laura is the end of this fad and it’s not so popular for the rest of the season. I think we’re 4 days into peak hurricane season though...

[eastcoastFL]

Based on the intensity guidance the NHC at 110mph is slightly on high side of the census so I guess it’s not so crazy that they haven’t called for a major yet. The 6z intensity guidance maybe stronger if the trend continues. The euro and gfs have fallen inline with the other models that were sub 950mb so it wouldn’t be crazy if things continued that way when she’s established over water again.

What I don’t get is why do some of them try to regain strength ?

Edit: oh wow the euro has it strengthening when it gets to the Atlantic in 5 or 6 days... hopefully Laura doesn’t go for round 2 like Ivan.

[TheDreamTraveler]

NHC has the remnants of Marco fading on Tuesday night in roughly the same place Laura should hit Wednesday night. We didn’t get fujiwara like some in the media had suggested, but apparently the NW Gulf is the place to be if you are a surface low pressure.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... e#contents

As much as I dislike a lot of the media overhyping things the models were showing a fujiwhara effect and mets were talking about it so media ran with it despite the fact things could easily change in the forecast...which it did. Also that "double hurricane" "first time ever" thing didn't happen it seems since they kept saying that. NAKED SWIRL CHURNING TOWARDS LOUISIANA lol

[Steve]

NHC has the remnants of Marco fading on Tuesday night in roughly the same place Laura should hit Wednesday night. We didn’t get fujiwara like some in the media had suggested, but apparently the NW Gulf is the place to be if you are a surface low pressure.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... e#contents

Let’s hope Laura is the end of this fad and it’s not so popular for the rest of the season. I think we’re 4 days into peak hurricane season though...

For sure. It’s been an ongoing discussion in the indicators thread, but even with Marco and Laura (plus Cristobal and Hanna), lots of the Gulf is untouched. And if we are going to stay in a western based season (or return to it), I think there will be more Gulf threats (East Coast as well). Laura will make landfall 7, and you’d think there could easily be 3-4 more, at least some as hurricanes.