ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Texashawk]

People in Houston are going to lose their damn minds tomorrow/later today when they see this (presumed updated) cone. Unfortunately, Rita was 15 years ago, and a lot of people may have forgotten the lessons from that evacuation. Fortunately we already got our hotel reservations in Austin yesterday but a *lot* of people I know are not taking this seriously - since we're not 'in the cone' we should be good. I kind of hate that damn cone, actually. Most people who follow weather casually see it as binary, not as a statistical model.

[GJG]

My daughter sent me this as a reminder

Ike



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[Highteeld]

A farther west/southwest track than forecast also brings a constant stream of higher OHC's down track, leading to a stronger storm possibly.

[TXWeatherMan]

My daughter sent me this as a reminder

Ike
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200825/e0cb9b361b42e4434653a808760e6023.gif


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Also, the Galveston 1900 hurricane took a similar path.

[PandaCitrus]

Houston is going to have major surge problems with any large wind field major hurricane, and major major surge problems with a Cat 4/5. If it hits at the worst angle just south of galveston bay.....a huge chunk of South Harris County is under 20-30 feet of surge. It will make Harvey look like a little afternoon thunderstorm.

People in Houston are going to lose their damn minds tomorrow/later today when they see this (presumed updated) cone. Unfortunately, Rita was 15 years ago, and a lot of people may have forgotten the lessons from that evacuation. Fortunately we already got our hotel reservations in Austin yesterday but a *lot* of people I know are not taking this seriously - since we're not 'in the cone' we should be good. I kind of hate that damn cone, actually. Most people who follow weather casually see it as binary, not as a statistical model.

Houston proper usually does fine. I was in Houston for both Rita and Ike - both way overhyped. Houston is pretty far inland.

I rather take my chances than evacuate to a packed hotel and get coronavirus.

[Highteeld]

Euro ensemble mean has a direct hit for Galveston/Houston

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1298157501406482434

[Kingarabian]

People in Houston are going to lose their damn minds tomorrow/later today when they see this (presumed updated) cone. Unfortunately, Rita was 15 years ago, and a lot of people may have forgotten the lessons from that evacuation. Fortunately we already got our hotel reservations in Austin yesterday but a *lot* of people I know are not taking this seriously - since we're not 'in the cone' we should be good. I kind of hate that damn cone, actually. Most people who follow weather casually see it as binary, not as a statistical model.

Houston proper usually does fine. I was in Houston for both Rita and Ike - both way overhyped. Houston is pretty far inland.

I rather take my chances than evacuate to a packed hotel and get coronavirus.

well Rita made landfall more east and as a minimal Cat.3 hurricane. Of course Laura could do the same, but what if its a near direct hit on Houston and an upper Cat.4 like what's currently being modeled out 48 hours before landfall?

[curtadams]

People in Houston are going to lose their damn minds tomorrow/later today when they see this (presumed updated) cone. Unfortunately, Rita was 15 years ago, and a lot of people may have forgotten the lessons from that evacuation. Fortunately we already got our hotel reservations in Austin yesterday but a *lot* of people I know are not taking this seriously - since we're not 'in the cone' we should be good. I kind of hate that damn cone, actually. Most people who follow weather casually see it as binary, not as a statistical model.

Houston proper usually does fine. I was in Houston for both Rita and Ike - both way overhyped. Houston is pretty far inland.

I rather take my chances than evacuate to a packed hotel and get coronavirus.

Coronavirus certainly adds a major new factor to the shelter in place vs. evacuate decision. But fundamentally most people in the Houston area have to shelter in the Houston area. It's just too populous to fully evacuate. The Rita evacuation fiasco showed that, and there's 2 million more people in the area than there were then. People do have to be smart about where to shelter, of course.

[Kingarabian]

The hot tower from about 2 hours ago has expanded the convection over the LLC. Appears to be kicking off a fromation of a true CDO.

[Waters]

People in Houston are going to lose their damn minds tomorrow/later today when they see this (presumed updated) cone. Unfortunately, Rita was 15 years ago, and a lot of people may have forgotten the lessons from that evacuation. Fortunately we already got our hotel reservations in Austin yesterday but a *lot* of people I know are not taking this seriously - since we're not 'in the cone' we should be good. I kind of hate that damn cone, actually. Most people who follow weather casually see it as binary, not as a statistical model.

Houston proper usually does fine. I was in Houston for both Rita and Ike - both way overhyped. Houston is pretty far inland.

I rather take my chances than evacuate to a packed hotel and get coronavirus.

I disagree, and I was around for Rita and Ike, too. Rita actually made landfall at the LA border, and Ike was a mostly glancing blow, coming ashore just northeast of Greater Houston. Ike's storm surge wiped out Bolivar peninsula instead of deep into Galveston Bay. If Ike made landfall at Galveston instead of Bolivar, things could have been much worse. Even so, Ike left me without power for several days. A hellish experience.

Southeast Texas is flat, low lying, and full of rivers, bayous, creeks, and bays. It is the most flood prone place in the country (Google "Boomtown, Flood Town"), and the typography makes it particularly vulnerable to storm surge.



These evac zones exist for a reason.

[Kingarabian]

Eh only 1 model has landfall anywhere near Houston. Second, 95+% of Houston proper is inland and not by the ocean or Galveston Bay and therefore will never get the "peak" winds anyway. It'll be no big deal like usual.

Well it's not going to go from Cat.4 strength to a tropical depression before it reaches Houston, if it takes that track. But you know your area best and you will do what's best for you and your family.

[Highteeld]

The hot tower from about 2 hours ago has expanded the convection over the LLC. Appears to be kicking off a fromation of a true CDO.
https://i.imgur.com/Jp75dxI.png

pressure likely down a few mb as a result

[Kingarabian]

The hot tower from about 2 hours ago has expanded the convection over the LLC. Appears to be kicking off a fromation of a true CDO.
https://i.imgur.com/Jp75dxI.png

pressure likely down a few mb as a result

We should have an AMSR2 microwave pass in about an hour or so. We'll be interesting to see its core structure.

[Highteeld]

The hot tower from about 2 hours ago has expanded the convection over the LLC. Appears to be kicking off a fromation of a true CDO.
https://i.imgur.com/Jp75dxI.png

pressure likely down a few mb as a result

We should have an AMSR2 microwave pass in about an hour or so. We'll be interesting to see its core structure.

The La Bajada radar out of Cuba looks like a partially formed southern eyewall, but open to the north. some of this could be noise due to beam attenuation. Getting further and further away

[djones65]

He is trolling.
Don't feed the trolls.
Please follow your local emergency management officials and monitor the forecasts from the NHC.

[Kingarabian]

Eh only 1 model has landfall anywhere near Houston. Second, 95+% of Houston proper is inland and not by the ocean or Galveston Bay and therefore will never get the "peak" winds anyway. It'll be no big deal like usual.

Well it's not going to go from Cat.4 strength to a tropical depression before it reaches Houston, if it takes that track. But you know your area best and you will do what's best for you and your family.

You're also making a lot of assumptions such as it being a cat 4 at landfall. There's only been 1 landfalling cat 4 hurricane in Texas in the last 50 years and that was barely a cat 4 (Harvey). It's not even a hurricane right now, let alone a cat 4.

Yes, that is my opinion. Of course:

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Kingarabian]

pressure likely down a few mb as a result

We should have an AMSR2 microwave pass in about an hour or so. We'll be interesting to see its core structure.

The La Bajada radar out of Cuba looks like a partially formed southern eyewall, but open to the north. some of this could be noise due to beam attenuation. Getting further and further away

https://i.imgur.com/M553S7Y.png

Good point. It has to be very close to producing hurricane force winds at this rate.

[Hurrilurker]

It is the most flood prone place in the country (Google "Boomtown, Flood Town"), and the typography makes it particularly vulnerable to storm surge.

That’s what you get for using Arial instead of Helvetica, East Texas!

[Brent]

...LAURA NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY...
...ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCH AREA ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF TEXAS...

The Tropical Storm Watch from South of Port Bolivar to San Luis
Pass has been changed to a Hurricane Watch.

[GCANE]

Picking up steam as she hits the water.
Convection firing south of the CoC.

Very moist air thru the troposphere.
CAPE = 1725
Shear = 6 knts
Humidity = 89%
TPW = 2.57