ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
240 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for tropical or subtropical development near the northwest Bahamas.

A trough of low pressure over the Straits of Florida is producing a
large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to become conducive for development, and this system
is likely to become a tropical or subtropical storm by late Friday
or Saturday when it is located near the northwestern Bahamas. The
system is then forecast to move generally northeastward over the
western Atlantic early next week.

Regardless of development, the disturbance has the potential to
bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Florida Keys, southeast
Florida, and the Bahamas through Saturday. Tropical-storm-force wind
gusts are also possible in the Florida Keys, southeast Florida, and
the Bahamas during the next day or two. Hazardous marine conditions
are also expected along the Florida east coast and in the Bahamas
where Gale Warnings are in effect. See products from your local
weather office and High Seas Forecasts for more details. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
this system tomorrow, if necessary. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EDT today, or
earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[SFLcane]

Wow 70-80!

[AnnularCane]

Since there's a model thread now, I take it 90L is official?

[wxman57]

I have the center passing 150 miles east of the OB of NC Monday afternoon as a 50kt TS. It then turns out to sea and transitions to ET. Close enough for breezy conditions on the coast, but no TS winds. I think it'll become a STD as it passes northern Bahamas early Saturday and a STS Saturday afternoon, by the way. Zero doubt the low will develop, the only question is how the NHC will classify it.

[MGC]

Indeed, interesting spin between Key West and Cuba this afternoon. I think this is just a short term swirl and not the dominate low that should develop tomorrow. We shall see....fun to watch. MGC

[Aric Dunn]

look how cute..

our first exposed circ of the season lol

[aspen]

Well at least there’s a chance this could become fully-tropical. Kind of getting tired of all the messy Subtropical storms we’ve seen over just the past two seasons.

yeah it is looking more likely to be fully tropical at this point.

Yeah I lost count of how many Subtropical systems we had last season and in 2018.

Alberto, Beryl, Debby, Ernesto, Joyce, Leslie, Oscar, Andrea, Melissa, Pablo, and Rebekah — 11 systems in 2018-19 that were subtropical at some point in their lives. Most of them started subtropical and became fully tropical, which isn’t out of the question for future Arthur.

[TheStormExpert]

I have the center passing 150 miles east of the OB of NC Monday afternoon as a 50kt TS. It then turns out to sea and transitions to ET. Close enough for breezy conditions on the coast, but no TS winds. I think it'll become a STD as it passes northern Bahamas early Saturday and a STS Saturday afternoon, by the way. Zero doubt the low will develop, the only question is how the NHC will classify it.

It’ll likely start out Subtropical then transition to fully tropical once it makes it closest approach to the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

[TheStormExpert]

yeah it is looking more likely to be fully tropical at this point.

Yeah I lost count of how many Subtropical systems we had last season and in 2018.

Alberto, Beryl, Debby, Ernesto, Joyce, Leslie, Oscar, Andrea, Melissa, Pablo, and Rebekah — 11 systems in 2018-19 that were subtropical at some point in their lives. Most of them started subtropical and became fully tropical, which isn’t out of the question for future Arthur.

Thanks! I knew there was about a dozen.

[TheStormExpert]

Wow 70-80!

That escalated quickly!

[Aric Dunn]

anyone want to wager against it being closed and tropical ??? lol pressure field is expanding shoujld see surface obs switch confirming this soon enough..

[TheStormExpert]

anyone want to wager against it being closed and tropical ??? lol pressure field is expanding shoujld see surface obs switch confirming this soon enough..



https://i.ibb.co/tHh36pZ/fhjfhjkvhkhkhgkghikghikhi.gif

I’ll wager that it’s closed and Subtropical.

[Aric Dunn]

anyone want to wager against it being closed and tropical ??? lol pressure field is expanding shoujld see surface obs switch confirming this soon enough..



https://i.ibb.co/tHh36pZ/fhjfhjkvhkhkhgkghikghikhi.gif

I’ll wager that it’s closed and Subtropical.

just as long as you realize sub tropical has nothing to do with looks. and everything to do with temp/dew point profile. and if it is attached to a trough or not..

[SFLcane]

anyone want to wager against it being closed and tropical ??? lol pressure field is expanding shoujld see surface obs switch confirming this soon enough..



https://i.ibb.co/tHh36pZ/fhjfhjkvhkhkhgkghikghikhi.gif

That looks like a closed surface circulation.

[TheStormExpert]

anyone want to wager against it being closed and tropical ??? lol pressure field is expanding shoujld see surface obs switch confirming this soon enough..



https://i.ibb.co/tHh36pZ/fhjfhjkvhkhkhgkghikghikhi.gif

I’ll wager that it’s closed and Subtropical.

just as long as you realize sub tropical has nothing to do with looks. and everything to do with temp/dew point profile. and if it is attached to a trough or not..

I know what Subtropical means. It means it has some tropical characteristics with some extratropical characteristics. But subtropical systems usually do have more of a comma look, thanks to the effects and wind field being more broad.

[Gums]

Salute!

Thanks, "eye", was waiting for NHC to "investigate", and then lo and behold.

I had my money on western or southern GOM as our Panhandle fronts were dying out and we had suspicious pressures in S. Mexico

South Fl needs the rain and so do we, so a small storm here would also be welcome.

Gums sends...

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1261013651680563201

[AutoPenalti]

anyone want to wager against it being closed and tropical ??? lol pressure field is expanding shoujld see surface obs switch confirming this soon enough..



https://i.ibb.co/tHh36pZ/fhjfhjkvhkhkhgkghikghikhi.gif

That looks like a closed surface circulation.

It looks like an eddy.

[NDG]

Looking good for this time of the year.
5 hr saved radar loop.

[Jr0d]

We are seeing a little drop in pressure here in Key West...not much but it is dropping.

The wind has let up a little, it was a bit gusty this morning. Still moderate rains.